Updated NBA series win probabilities

[Fast Eddie]

As of Friday May 18, 2012 here are the odds of each team winning their conference semi-final series. Using my power rankings.

Tough to read in this format, but the first series reads like this.

Boston has almost a 75% chance to win the series before tonight-s game. 27 % to end it in 5, 22% to end it in 6 and 24% in 7. The odds will change again after tonight's game, but this will give you some idea.

I have Indiana a slight favorite to win the series. The odds-makers have Miami a slight favorite. I think some of that may be padded for public perception. We'll see


Boston vs Philadelphia (Boston leads 2-1)
Win in exactly:
Boston Celtics Philadelphia 76ers Total

4 games 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 games 27.56% 0.00% 27.56%
6 games 22.34% 11.67% 34.01%
7 games 24.64% 13.79% 38.43%

Total 74.54% 25.46% 100.00%

Oklahoma City vs LA Lakers (Oklahoma City leads 2-0)
Win in exactly:
Oklahoma City Thunder Los Angeles Lakers Total

4 games 28.16% 0.00% 28.16%
5 games 36.40% 0.00% 36.40%
6 games 15.66% 2.78% 18.44%
7 games 12.42% 4.58% 16.99%

Total 92.64% 7.36% 100.00%

San Antonio vs LA Clippers (San Antonio leads 2-0)
Win in exactly:
San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Clippers Total

4 games 41.11% 0.00% 41.11%
5 games 37.54% 0.00% 37.54%
6 games 12.17% 0.85% 13.02%
7 games 6.80% 1.53% 8.33%

Total 97.62% 2.38% 100.00%

Miami vs Indiana (Indian leads 2-1)
Win in exactly:
Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Total

4 games 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5 games 0.00% 14.76% 14.76%
6 games 17.62% 25.00% 42.62%
7 games 30.05% 12.58% 42.62%

Total 47.67% 52.33% 100.00%

 

[DZ]

Thanks for posting :0008

Just for reference, here are the percentages on the odds to win based on the current adjusted series prices in vegas:

Heat -130 56%
Pacers +120 44%

Celtics -400 78%
76ers +320 22%

Thunder -1500 93%
Lakers +1000 7%

Spurs 99%
Clippers 1%

 

[Fast Eddie]

Thanks for posting :0008

Just for reference, here are the percentages on the odds to win based on the current adjusted series prices in vegas:

Heat -130 56%
Pacers +120 44%

Celtics -400 78%
76ers +320 22%

Thunder -1500 93%
Lakers +1000 7%

Spurs 99%
Clippers 1%

thanks for posting those. I'm close on 3 out of 4. There is about a 10 point difference in winning pct between my number, on Miami, and the books number.

I have Indiana/Miami as a pick at Indy, and 7 point favorites at home.

I wonder how much the books are padding that number based on public perception.

 

[DZ]

thanks for posting those. I'm close on 3 out of 4. There is about a 10 point difference in winning pct between my number, on Miami, and the books number.

I have Indiana/Miami as a pick at Indy, and 7 point favorites at home.

I wonder how much the books are padding that number based on public perception.

Entirely. And the reality is that they lost their only scoring threat near the basket with Bosh going down plus they don't have an answer to Hibbert (I just wish Chandler had those post moves for my Knicks). But all people see are LeBron and Wade and that they are being handed the Eastern Conf just like the beginning of the season. I saw a very frustrated LeBron in Game 2 and the same from Wade in game 3. They look like babies out there at times. Whining superstars who don't know how to act like true NBA vets. I seem to remember something similar happening in last years finals....

 

[DZ]

Odds to win the East:
From Bovada, a public book

Miami Heat 5/4 (44.44%)

Boston Celtics 2/1 (33.33%)

Indiana Pacers 3/1 (25%)

Philadelphia 76ers 16/1 (5.88%)

 

[DZ]

Heat-Pacers

Heat-Pacers

In NBA playoff history, the team that goes up 2-1 in a 7 games series goes on to win 82% of the time (via ESPN)

 

[Fast Eddie]

Odds to win the East:
From Bovada, a public book

Miami Heat 5/4 (44.44%)

Boston Celtics 2/1 (33.33%)

Indiana Pacers 3/1 (25%)

Philadelphia 76ers 16/1 (5.88%)

Using those odds and assuming from my updated series prices. Indiana is undervalued from all angles.

I have Boston and Indiana dead even. (my projections)

Location Predicted Line
at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers 89.2 Boston Celtics 85.7 -3.5
Neutral Boston Celtics 87.5 Indiana Pacers 87.4 0
at Boston Celtics Boston Celtics 89.2 Indiana Pacers 85.7 -3.5


Average Pace of Game 174.9
Away Team Controls Pace 170
Home Team Controls Pace 179.8


Chance of Winning

at Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers 60.61% Boston Celtics 39.39%
Neutral Boston Celtics 50.31% Indiana Pacers 49.69%
at Boston Celtics Boston Celtics 60.61% Indiana Pacers 39.39%


Indiana will have home court as well, assuming bos/ind both win. Making them a slight favorite over Boston, yet their odds are less than the Celtics to win the east.

I'm going to play them game 4. I'm going to bet them at + price to win the series right now, and I'm going to play them to win the east.

If it all of sudden turns against me in games 4 and 5, I'll try to find a spot hedge in game 6.

 

[DZ]

Using those odds and assuming from my updated series prices. Indiana is undervalued from all angles.

I agree completely. HOWEVER, if I had to pick one team to come out of the East based on current form and experience, I'd pick the Celts. I don't think that the Pacers are ready to advance past the Conf Finals. They're too young. They have a complete team with greatly talented and athletic players, but Boston has the experience and I don't think home court means much in their case, hence their conceding the 4 seed to ATL in the regular season. Celts also look like a hot team right now and Garnett is playing at his 2008 level. Assuming he, Pierce and Rondo stay healthy, I don't even see the Heat beating them if they manage to come back against the Pacers.
That said, I agree that the Pacers have tremendous value right now.

Just to think that I got the Spurs at 22/1 when the first future odds came out after the NBA finals last year and now they are the favorites. What a joke :lol:
I can't imagine what the Pacers would have been at... 50/1... 65/1...??? :shrug: