Updated Second Half Strength of Schedule for All 32 Teams Based on Super Bowl Odds
If you?ve come across my preferred method for calculating NFL strength of schedule at the beginning of a season, you know I?m not a fan of the traditional method that involves using win-loss records.
It doesn?t make much sense to use a team?s record from the previous season to determine how good they?ll be the next season. I also believe using a team?s win-loss record at the midway point of the season to determine how good they are has some major flaws.
Should we be treating the 5-2 Buffalo Bills as a tougher opponent than the 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs? What about the 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles and the 3-4 Chicago Bears ? are they similar opponents?
So instead of using current records, I?m using each team?s Super Bowl odds to determine how good they are.
Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 denotes the easiest schedule in the table below.
2019 NFL Season Updated Second Half SOS
Rank Team SBD?s Strength of Schedule
1 Baltimore Ravens 56.57
2 Carolina Panthers 54.88
3 Dallas Cowboys 52.50
4 Atlanta Falcons 50.68
5 San Francisco 49ers 50.33
6 Buffalo Bills 47.46
7 Houston Texans 45.80
8 Philadelphia Eagles 44.24
9 Chicago Bears 43.98
10 Kansas City Chiefs 43.55
11 Miami Dolphins 43.45
12 Cincinnati Bengals 42.56
13 Arizona Cardinals 42.49
14 Seattle Seahawks 41.55
15 Tennessee Titans 38.01
16 Minnesota Vikings 33.87
17 Los Angeles Chargers 33.79
18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32.66
19 Los Angeles Rams 32.57
20 New England Patriots 28.82
21 New York Giants 28.44
22 Indianapolis Colts 28.43
23 Detroit Lions 28.22
24 Washington Redskins 28.02
25 Green Bay Packers 23.59
26 Denver Broncos 22.66
27 Pittsburgh Steelers 21.42
28 New Orleans Saints 21.19
29 Jacksonville Jaguars 15.54
30 Oakland Raiders 14.14
31 Cleveland Browns 13.12
32 New York Jets 10.99
Theoretically speaking, if you had to play the Patriots ? the favorites to win the Super Bowl ? each of the next nine weeks, your second half SOS would be 279.07. If your remaining nine opponents were the top nine Super Bowl contenders ? Patriots, Saints, Packers, Niners, Cowboys, Chiefs, Ravens, Rams, and Vikings ? your SOS would be 100.88.
On the other hand, your easiest theoretical schedule would be playing the Dolphins eight times and having a bye, resulting in a 0.053 SOS. Although, playing the Dolphins an extra time instead of the bye only increases it to a 0.06 SOS.
Niners Will Be Tested
Many would argue that San Francisco has not really been tested yet this season. Their toughest opponents have been the Steelers (with Mason Rudolph under center), Rams, and Panthers.
But if the Niners can breeze through their final nine games the same way they have the first seven, there would be no doubters left. Along with Seattle twice and another date with the Rams, the 49ers have to deal with Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans before the season?s end.
Beat every one except Ravens and only lost by 3 points
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/updated-second-half-season-strength-of-schedule-2019/
If you?ve come across my preferred method for calculating NFL strength of schedule at the beginning of a season, you know I?m not a fan of the traditional method that involves using win-loss records.
It doesn?t make much sense to use a team?s record from the previous season to determine how good they?ll be the next season. I also believe using a team?s win-loss record at the midway point of the season to determine how good they are has some major flaws.
Should we be treating the 5-2 Buffalo Bills as a tougher opponent than the 5-3 Kansas City Chiefs? What about the 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles and the 3-4 Chicago Bears ? are they similar opponents?
So instead of using current records, I?m using each team?s Super Bowl odds to determine how good they are.
Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 denotes the easiest schedule in the table below.
2019 NFL Season Updated Second Half SOS
Rank Team SBD?s Strength of Schedule
1 Baltimore Ravens 56.57
2 Carolina Panthers 54.88
3 Dallas Cowboys 52.50
4 Atlanta Falcons 50.68
5 San Francisco 49ers 50.33
6 Buffalo Bills 47.46
7 Houston Texans 45.80
8 Philadelphia Eagles 44.24
9 Chicago Bears 43.98
10 Kansas City Chiefs 43.55
11 Miami Dolphins 43.45
12 Cincinnati Bengals 42.56
13 Arizona Cardinals 42.49
14 Seattle Seahawks 41.55
15 Tennessee Titans 38.01
16 Minnesota Vikings 33.87
17 Los Angeles Chargers 33.79
18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32.66
19 Los Angeles Rams 32.57
20 New England Patriots 28.82
21 New York Giants 28.44
22 Indianapolis Colts 28.43
23 Detroit Lions 28.22
24 Washington Redskins 28.02
25 Green Bay Packers 23.59
26 Denver Broncos 22.66
27 Pittsburgh Steelers 21.42
28 New Orleans Saints 21.19
29 Jacksonville Jaguars 15.54
30 Oakland Raiders 14.14
31 Cleveland Browns 13.12
32 New York Jets 10.99
Theoretically speaking, if you had to play the Patriots ? the favorites to win the Super Bowl ? each of the next nine weeks, your second half SOS would be 279.07. If your remaining nine opponents were the top nine Super Bowl contenders ? Patriots, Saints, Packers, Niners, Cowboys, Chiefs, Ravens, Rams, and Vikings ? your SOS would be 100.88.
On the other hand, your easiest theoretical schedule would be playing the Dolphins eight times and having a bye, resulting in a 0.053 SOS. Although, playing the Dolphins an extra time instead of the bye only increases it to a 0.06 SOS.
Niners Will Be Tested
Many would argue that San Francisco has not really been tested yet this season. Their toughest opponents have been the Steelers (with Mason Rudolph under center), Rams, and Panthers.
But if the Niners can breeze through their final nine games the same way they have the first seven, there would be no doubters left. Along with Seattle twice and another date with the Rams, the 49ers have to deal with Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans before the season?s end.
Beat every one except Ravens and only lost by 3 points
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nfl/updated-second-half-season-strength-of-schedule-2019/
