Urgent Money Management Question...IE?

[djeze]

Right now I have New Orleans in 6 different teasers. All other teams involved are either winners, or close to it. If they WIN, (I have them either on the Money line or +.5) I take home 328. If they loose, I am out 325.

Is there a way that I could hedge the Jets to lock in a profit? All opinions are welcome. Shown below are the winners already.

Teaser Mia pk/ SF pk/ NO pk (50/53.5)
Teaser Mia +2/ Phily +5.5/ SF +3.5/ NO +6 (65/50)
Teaser Philly -.5/ NO pk (50/45.4)
Teaser NO +.5/ Atl/NE U 49 (60/50)
Teaser SF pk/ NO Pk (50/36.5)
Teaser Mia -1.5/ Mia U39.5/ SF -1.5/ N0 (50/100)



[This message has been edited by djeze (edited 11-04-2001).]

 

[djeze]

Should I be taking the Jets on the money line +220 in some way?

 

[djeze]

I have 90 minutes to figure something out...

 

[Stag]

stay with the Saints..don't
hedge
I you had a lot more money riding then I would do something. Just sit back and know that you have the advantage in this game

 

[jng]

Djeze--

Identical situation here with a N.O. SU win paying me a dime or so in teasers.

I will be taking Jets +7 -120 (buying the 1/2) for a nickel to create a pretty big middle. Lots of very strong 'cappers on Jets including Fletch's 5*, TV and Count Zero--and of course, IE.

The ML play is not a bad one but I love the idea of a win and the chance of middle.

GL

J

 

[nakor]

If you want to ensure a profit, you could take NYJ +220 for 200, which would be +120 if the Jets win and +100 or so if NO wins. Actually you might do better as I see you have NO +6 in one of the games.

Alternatively, you could bet (at SIA) the winning margin. The Jets are +700 to win by 1-5, +1000 to win by 6-10, +1500 to win by 11-15. Dropping 100 on each of these would ensure a profit unless the Jets win by more than 15, in which case you're totally screwed.

Yet another alternative is to simply bet the Jets +7 EV at SIA for 325. Then you in effect have a 7 point middle with the following risk profile:

Jets win: 0
NO wins by 1-6: +650
NO wins by 7: +325
NO wins by 8+: 0

There's no correct answer - it depends on your risk tolerance and your read on the game. In your shoes I'd probably bet 150 on the Jets +7 even money, to minimize risk and give myself a chance to win both ways. You could also wait until halftime.

Good luck,
Nakor

 

[Investment Executive]

You have worked pretty hard in getting yourself in a good position with New Orleans. Looks like your inital thoughts were pretty strong on the home team so if they still are i would stick w/ it....or you could limit your exposure to the game by putting 150 on the jets at +220..its going to be up to you on how you feel w/ your bankroll....you still have that 65/50 on new orleans getting 6 also....as a kicker...or you could wait till halftime and see if your could hedge if you wanted then if you feel it will be a close 1st half....

like i said above i guess it all depends on how much exposure you want in the game ......its going to be up to you to make the call.....good luck w/ what you do...

 

[Investment Executive]

whoops, nakor said it all before i finished typing....can't really add anymore than what has been said above.

 

[Korn]

I'm in the same situation... Have NO in a few teasers and at -6...

They win and cover =+$500, while a loss would =-$550...

Was thinking of hedging but think I will just ride it out unless I can come up with a hedge I like...

GL
Korn

 

[djeze]

I am leaning toward Jets +220 for $150. Then if NO wins, I still bank a profit, and if jets win (much less likely) I break even.

 

[dr. freeze]

i would tease NYJets, and UNDER for 6.5 points

you get 48 and 13 as pretty key numbers where the 6 misses em both.....

another thing you could do is wait til halftime and make a move......

 

[Dugan]

Don't punk out. Crush the book. New Orleans easy win. You bet with confidence, not thinking I hope I don't lose my arss. Good Luck, you will win!!!!

[This message has been edited by Dugan (edited 11-04-2001).]

 

[djeze]

From IE or you could wait till halftime and see if your could hedge if you wanted then if you feel it will be a close 1st half....

IE: If I wait until halftime to wager, and I am still looking to hedge, what should I be looking for?



[This message has been edited by djeze (edited 11-04-2001).]

 

[Investment Executive]

going to depend on how the first half goes...if new orleans is up 6 or 7 pts they will probably be -130 or so at half...but will have to wait and see....

 

[djeze]

I will be around at halftime to discuss. I have done nohing right now

 

[djeze]

now what the hell do I do...

 

[dr. freeze]

hope for a comeback.....sorry.....

 

[gamble]

we should have hedged. Saints are overated and have no qb.

 

[Investment Executive]

not much you can do other than sitting tight w/ your new orleans at a pk......they sure looked flat coming out of the gate....but maybe they will wake up in the 2nd half for you.....good luck.

 

[dr. freeze]

you shouldda taken my advice and taken the Jets and the under teased.....then you wouldda had some more options.......