US Women's Open
- Thread starter pharlap
- Start date
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Lorena Ochoa to win 11/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
This really should be an event solely for big-hitters. At 6,616 yards, this is one of the longest U.S. Women's Open courses in history and with the weekend rain that not only caused the course to be closed to spectators on Monday, but has been a problem throughout one of the wettest Springs ever in the area, this course will play very long with very little roll expected on the fairways all week. The shorter hitters and those that rely on hybrid clubs should struggle and their typical U.S. Open defence of penal rough harming the bigger-hitters will not only be compromised by the lack of the roll on the fairway (and into the rough), but by the USGA's decision to maintain the policy of graduated rough that they introduce at Winged Foot. For twenty feet, there will be an intermediate cut of rough which, given the lack of roll on the ball, should give the bigger hitters some freedom to play attacking golf with the greens also expected to remain soft all week. This is good news for Ochoa who not only tops the Tour's Money List, Scoring Average and Greens in Regulation stats, but is also ranked 5th in driving distance this year. Admittedly, in her current form, she could compete on any course and she really should have won around Cherry Hills last year until topping her drive into the water on the last hole and taking a quadruple-bogey eight. But these conditions will eliminate the likes of last year's winner, Birdie Kim, from contention and will also reduce the necessity to play links-style golf around this softened course.
Michelle Wie to win 12/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
The LPGA Tour may have granted Morgan Pressel exemption to become a member of the Tour before the age of 18 and if they are to use Wie to their best advantage, they may need to consider doing the same for Wie as soon as possible. The 'best player without a Tour' has been playing all around the world and on many different Tours and that freedom of movement has enabled her to set up camp with an entourage that has included her coach, David Leadbetter, in Rhode Island last week. Everything that has made this course play longer has benefited Wie more than any other (in practise, she has been driving past her playing partner between 60 and 100 yards on average) and particularly as the greens have now become so soft that they are expected to reach a maximum speed of only 9.5 feet on the stimpmeter. For a player who would have been playing at Winged Foot, but for poor putting, this is welcome news. And if the wind does blow, she has shown with her 3rd place finish in last year's Women's British Open that she can cope with wind and links courses. So, there may be no great intuition behind the first two selections, but everything sets up very nicely for them to enforce their advantage over the rest of the field, bar Annika.
Brittany Lang to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetFred
A good price for the 6th-ranked player in driving distance on Tour who finished 2nd in last year's U.S. Women's Open while still an amateur and finished 3rd last week when in contention throughout. It had been a disappointing rookie season, but she hit more greens in regulation last week than in any event since February and it should give her confidence ahead of an event that she threatened to run away with for the first round and a half. She has still to win on Tour, but she followed up her runners-up finish last year with a season-best (until last week) 8th place finish in the Nabisco Championship for the only two major championships that she has played in during the last year. Those are very impressive performances in major events for a rookie and the course conditions should help her continue that run this week.
Lorena Ochoa to win 11/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
This really should be an event solely for big-hitters. At 6,616 yards, this is one of the longest U.S. Women's Open courses in history and with the weekend rain that not only caused the course to be closed to spectators on Monday, but has been a problem throughout one of the wettest Springs ever in the area, this course will play very long with very little roll expected on the fairways all week. The shorter hitters and those that rely on hybrid clubs should struggle and their typical U.S. Open defence of penal rough harming the bigger-hitters will not only be compromised by the lack of the roll on the fairway (and into the rough), but by the USGA's decision to maintain the policy of graduated rough that they introduce at Winged Foot. For twenty feet, there will be an intermediate cut of rough which, given the lack of roll on the ball, should give the bigger hitters some freedom to play attacking golf with the greens also expected to remain soft all week. This is good news for Ochoa who not only tops the Tour's Money List, Scoring Average and Greens in Regulation stats, but is also ranked 5th in driving distance this year. Admittedly, in her current form, she could compete on any course and she really should have won around Cherry Hills last year until topping her drive into the water on the last hole and taking a quadruple-bogey eight. But these conditions will eliminate the likes of last year's winner, Birdie Kim, from contention and will also reduce the necessity to play links-style golf around this softened course.
Michelle Wie to win 12/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
The LPGA Tour may have granted Morgan Pressel exemption to become a member of the Tour before the age of 18 and if they are to use Wie to their best advantage, they may need to consider doing the same for Wie as soon as possible. The 'best player without a Tour' has been playing all around the world and on many different Tours and that freedom of movement has enabled her to set up camp with an entourage that has included her coach, David Leadbetter, in Rhode Island last week. Everything that has made this course play longer has benefited Wie more than any other (in practise, she has been driving past her playing partner between 60 and 100 yards on average) and particularly as the greens have now become so soft that they are expected to reach a maximum speed of only 9.5 feet on the stimpmeter. For a player who would have been playing at Winged Foot, but for poor putting, this is welcome news. And if the wind does blow, she has shown with her 3rd place finish in last year's Women's British Open that she can cope with wind and links courses. So, there may be no great intuition behind the first two selections, but everything sets up very nicely for them to enforce their advantage over the rest of the field, bar Annika.
Brittany Lang to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetFred
A good price for the 6th-ranked player in driving distance on Tour who finished 2nd in last year's U.S. Women's Open while still an amateur and finished 3rd last week when in contention throughout. It had been a disappointing rookie season, but she hit more greens in regulation last week than in any event since February and it should give her confidence ahead of an event that she threatened to run away with for the first round and a half. She has still to win on Tour, but she followed up her runners-up finish last year with a season-best (until last week) 8th place finish in the Nabisco Championship for the only two major championships that she has played in during the last year. Those are very impressive performances in major events for a rookie and the course conditions should help her continue that run this week.
Matchup plays (stake per play: 2pts)
Morgan Pressel to beat Sophie Gustafson -111 @ Expekt
Easy to oppose a player whose record in this event in the last four years reads: mc, mc, mc 58th. But there is also the small matter of Gustafson getting married two weeks ago, taking a short honeymoon and getting straight back on Tour. She missed the cut badly last on her return and even though this is a links course, the wet conditions will counter that and she is worth opposing again.
Michele Redman to beat Liselotte Neumann -110 @ BetFred
Not a great deal to choose between these two players, though Neumann has finished ahead of Redman only once in their last six common events. But it is in their U.S. Women's Open history that Redman is clearly better prepared for this event. In the last seven years, she has finished ahead of Neumann on six occasions.
Michelle Wie to beat Karrie Webb -115 @ The Greek
Course conditions aside, Wie has played in the last three U.S. Women's Open and finished ahead of Webb every time. The Australian may have been playing some of her best golf in recent months, but all aspects of her game were poor last week and she will need to be at her best to compete with Wie.
(also available at Centrebet and Expekt)
Morgan Pressel to beat Sophie Gustafson -111 @ Expekt
Easy to oppose a player whose record in this event in the last four years reads: mc, mc, mc 58th. But there is also the small matter of Gustafson getting married two weeks ago, taking a short honeymoon and getting straight back on Tour. She missed the cut badly last on her return and even though this is a links course, the wet conditions will counter that and she is worth opposing again.
Michele Redman to beat Liselotte Neumann -110 @ BetFred
Not a great deal to choose between these two players, though Neumann has finished ahead of Redman only once in their last six common events. But it is in their U.S. Women's Open history that Redman is clearly better prepared for this event. In the last seven years, she has finished ahead of Neumann on six occasions.
Michelle Wie to beat Karrie Webb -115 @ The Greek
Course conditions aside, Wie has played in the last three U.S. Women's Open and finished ahead of Webb every time. The Australian may have been playing some of her best golf in recent months, but all aspects of her game were poor last week and she will need to be at her best to compete with Wie.
(also available at Centrebet and Expekt)
Adding...
Mi Hyun Kim -146 to beat Se Ri Pak
At Pinnacle
Michelle Wie -137 to beat Karrie Webb
At Centrebet
Mi Hyun Kim -146 to beat Se Ri Pak
At Pinnacle
Michelle Wie -137 to beat Karrie Webb
At Centrebet
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Outrights:
Michelle Wie(10/1) e.w.
- - Various circumstances have been noted as favoring Wie at this venue this week, which are good. Regardless, at any venue in any of the 50 states, I would likely be on board with Michelle this week on the belief that the odds are much less than 10/1 on whether it is finally, "her time."
GL
Michelle Wie(10/1) e.w.
- - Various circumstances have been noted as favoring Wie at this venue this week, which are good. Regardless, at any venue in any of the 50 states, I would likely be on board with Michelle this week on the belief that the odds are much less than 10/1 on whether it is finally, "her time."
GL
Let me slip in one anyway--Just got back from Vegas and visiting some of Jacks crew here--only wager available on golf in Vegas is futers on British Open 
final "36 holes" @ Oly
Ink -125
489 Stacy Prammanasudh +100
490 Juli Inkster -125
final "36 holes" @ Oly
Ink -125
489 Stacy Prammanasudh +100
490 Juli Inkster -125
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +1.50pts
Bryant/Quigley LOST by 6
Hatalsky/Thorpe WON by 6
Stadler/Thorpe WON by 10
All three matches led throughout the week, but Quigley's final round 63 proved to be costly.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +1.78pts
Pressel/Gustafson LOST by 5
Redman/Neumann WON by 1
Wie/Webb WON by 13
Got a little lucky with the one-shot victory for Redman over Neumann, but it was much needed!
LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 11-29; -11.39pts
Matchups: 24-20; -10.68pts
Bryant/Quigley LOST by 6
Hatalsky/Thorpe WON by 6
Stadler/Thorpe WON by 10
All three matches led throughout the week, but Quigley's final round 63 proved to be costly.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +1.78pts
Pressel/Gustafson LOST by 5
Redman/Neumann WON by 1
Wie/Webb WON by 13
Got a little lucky with the one-shot victory for Redman over Neumann, but it was much needed!
LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 11-29; -11.39pts
Matchups: 24-20; -10.68pts
