To those who respect my opinion I took the time (a long time) to not only make a prediction on the BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP but included detailed analysis. I personally have a lot of $$$$ riding on this game. I won $6,900 on USC going undefeated and have $22,750 to win $42,875 on USC winning the BCS NC. (all posted) Me winning close to 7k takes away some of my risk of losing 22k. I am so confident in USC winning this game, as of right now decided NOT to hedge my bet. I am ?ALL IN" I do think Texas has a chance to win SU so this isn?t a slam dunk. I can afford to take the risk and will accept the consequences of not hedging if Texas wins SU.
Since I have so much $$$ riding on this game, I studied it inside and out. As you can see all the data I gathered below. I decided to share it. Hopefully it pays off!
I also gathered other peoples opinions (who are in the know and much smarter than me) which I included in my analysis. In this post I am not trying to make an argument why Texas will beat USC or how. I am making an argument that supports my prediction. My prediction is USC will win this game 45-27. If you take the time to read my entire post, you will understand why I am confident. If you hate reading, you won't care for my post. Whethere you are for Texas or USC, I guarantee you will become educated after opening this thread. Doesn?t mean what I say will happen, but I have not lost a big bet on USC since year 1 of Pete Carroll in Las Vegas Bowl.
~ ANALYSIS ~
I see a lot of similarities of last years OB and this years RB. USC will win this game because of the difference in style of play and schemes. Texas cannot stop USC, and Pete Carroll will eventually stop Texas. I predict Texas to have success in the 1q and then be shut down. It is simple as that. USC really is on a different level than the rest of CFB and playing in another conf. only hurts you when you face USC for the first time. Don?t underestimate this advantage USC has.
~ HOW THE GAME WILL BE PLAYED OUT ~
I think Texas will have success in 1q is because I respect Vince Young and his talent. It will take USC D time to adjust to him and Texas has a solid OL. Very good OL. You have some very talented Longhorns but they're running basically a high school offense against the best defensive mind in college football (Carroll). USC D will eventually adjust to Texas O and shut them down. It will take a little time because it is a new offensive scheme and Texas runs it well lead by an exceptional athlete at QB. On the other hand, USC?s offensive scheme is light years ahead of anything Texas has seen. Texas will never be able to adjust to USC?s offense. Not going to happen. USC will attack, attack, and attack.
~ TURNOVERS ~
When USC starts to pull away, VY and Texas will self destruct. Young will not be able to handle the pressure and try and do too much. (VY repeatedly says how he carries the team etc and this isn't same pressure VY faced in last years bowl game) USC D is designed to force TO?s and that is exactly what will happen. VY force throws or be stripped because he ?ALWAYS" carries the ball out away from his body. More importantly, Vince Young is about to get mind fawked by Pete Carroll on the biggest stage of his life. It isn?t a good match. Texas unfortunately is playing a ball hawking D to begin with to go along with their propensity to turn it over. Texas ALWAYS turns the ball over in big games. Look at the stats the last 2 years. It is a FACT! Another fact? Texas has fumbled 30 times and only lost eight (good#), SC has fumbled 16 times lost 6.
~ USC OFFENSE/TEXAS DEFENSE ~
Onto the USC offense. We all know how great USC O is and all the playmakers USC has. No need to go into depth about it. USC will have success against any defense in CFB. USC will have more success against a stubborn arrogant defenses. OU had it last year. Texas this year. Texas will have too much pride to play prevent which is the only way to slow down USC. Texas has convinced themselves (like OU) that as long as they play Texas D they will be fine against USC O.
Texas is weak at LB (undersized and slow) and DE are slow as well. Lendale White will punish the Texas LB's and Bush will easily have success rushing to the outside. Don't forget USC's passing game!
The truth about the Texas defense is they need to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback. Two thirds of their sacks come from linebackers and the secondary. I think Texas only had 31 QB sacks so they are not a great pass rushing team. The Longhorn safeties are the two leading tacklers on the team. In fact, the Texas secondary has five of the six leading tacklers on the team. Only one linebacker ranks in the top seven. The highest ranking lineman is ranked seventh on the team for tackles. This is not good.
By contrast, USC gets two thirds of their sacks from the down lineman. USC's four leading tacklers are linebackers and lineman. Six of the top seven tacklers are linebackers and lineman. Three of the lineman are in the top seven leading tacklers for the team. Three linebackers and a cornerback/safety fill out the top seven. A defensive end is the second leading tackler on the team.
Don?t believe me? LOOK FOR YOURSELF!
TEXAS
Griffin - FS
Huff - SS
Harris - LB
Griffin - CB
Killebrew - LB
Brown ? CB
USC
Lua - LB
Rucker - DE
Ashton - LB
Pinkard - CB/S
Ellis - DT
Rivers - LB
Jackson ? DE
USC front seven are doing a great job of keeping the ball in front of them with only one secondary player in the top seven tacklers.
How good is this Texas D? Their numbers are very good. But their numbers were very good last year. Almost identical to this year's. Texas still gave up 37 points to a Michigan team led by a freshmen QB. Post #2 expands on this!
The simple fact is that the Big 12 is stocked with terrible offenses, and Texas played Ohio State when Tressel still thought Zwick should see the field at QB. These guys haven't seen a good offense all year. That doesn't mean they'll fold when they see one. But it does mean we should take the defensive statistics with a grain of salt.
~ TEXAS TALENT ~
Remember that OU team USC faced in the OB I think had 11 players drafted after the season and that did not include their Heisman winning QB or their superstar RB. OU was loaded with talent and UT is loaded with talent just like SC but, for the same old reasons, USC will kick the $hit out of UT just like USC did OU. Hell, you do not have to take my word for it, PC gave himself away when he was asked whether or not he could remember a match-up of two teams that were this evenly matched or that was this anticipated and he replied ?last year at this time" with a grin on his face. That is as far as he would go, but he knows this game is going to be VERY similar to the OU game last year.
~ EXPERIENCE ~
Vince Young is an absolute phenom who carried Texas in last years RB. But I wonder about the other players and especially the Texas coaching staff. How will they handle that big-time pressure? Everyone will have butterflies going in, but UT may just pee their pants. USC is a very intimidating team when they are focused. The mental part of the game is huge and USC will have a massive psychological advantage.
USC is used to playing and winning big games. The only real tough team the Horns have played this year is Ohio State. The Horns got out with a win because of some brain cramps by Tressel and a dropped pass by a wide open receiver in the end zone. OSU didn?t play Troy Smith all game AND Tressel tried to win by kicking FG?s. Carroll goes for touchdowns. USC doesn't make those kinds of mistakes. USC was down 13 @Oregon, down 21 at half @ASU, tight game @ND, tight game vs FSU and USC won every game. Last year in BCS NC game USC was down 7pts early after OU took opening drive for TD. 3 years ago USC was down 7-0 to Iowa in BCS bowl game after giving up TD on opening kickoff. USC dominated both games. This is the mindset of a Pete Carroll team. Tough to beat. They handle pressure well. They play solid fundamental football. Only 1 turnover in 3 straight BCS bowl games. That 1 turnover was at the end of the 4th quarter @ the goaline against Michigan where USC was already up 14pts. Most of USC players have won 2 BCS bowl games. Most of USC?s ?key" players played in last years BCS NC game. Very important.
--> to be cont.
Since I have so much $$$ riding on this game, I studied it inside and out. As you can see all the data I gathered below. I decided to share it. Hopefully it pays off!
I also gathered other peoples opinions (who are in the know and much smarter than me) which I included in my analysis. In this post I am not trying to make an argument why Texas will beat USC or how. I am making an argument that supports my prediction. My prediction is USC will win this game 45-27. If you take the time to read my entire post, you will understand why I am confident. If you hate reading, you won't care for my post. Whethere you are for Texas or USC, I guarantee you will become educated after opening this thread. Doesn?t mean what I say will happen, but I have not lost a big bet on USC since year 1 of Pete Carroll in Las Vegas Bowl. ~ ANALYSIS ~
I see a lot of similarities of last years OB and this years RB. USC will win this game because of the difference in style of play and schemes. Texas cannot stop USC, and Pete Carroll will eventually stop Texas. I predict Texas to have success in the 1q and then be shut down. It is simple as that. USC really is on a different level than the rest of CFB and playing in another conf. only hurts you when you face USC for the first time. Don?t underestimate this advantage USC has.
~ HOW THE GAME WILL BE PLAYED OUT ~
I think Texas will have success in 1q is because I respect Vince Young and his talent. It will take USC D time to adjust to him and Texas has a solid OL. Very good OL. You have some very talented Longhorns but they're running basically a high school offense against the best defensive mind in college football (Carroll). USC D will eventually adjust to Texas O and shut them down. It will take a little time because it is a new offensive scheme and Texas runs it well lead by an exceptional athlete at QB. On the other hand, USC?s offensive scheme is light years ahead of anything Texas has seen. Texas will never be able to adjust to USC?s offense. Not going to happen. USC will attack, attack, and attack.
~ TURNOVERS ~
When USC starts to pull away, VY and Texas will self destruct. Young will not be able to handle the pressure and try and do too much. (VY repeatedly says how he carries the team etc and this isn't same pressure VY faced in last years bowl game) USC D is designed to force TO?s and that is exactly what will happen. VY force throws or be stripped because he ?ALWAYS" carries the ball out away from his body. More importantly, Vince Young is about to get mind fawked by Pete Carroll on the biggest stage of his life. It isn?t a good match. Texas unfortunately is playing a ball hawking D to begin with to go along with their propensity to turn it over. Texas ALWAYS turns the ball over in big games. Look at the stats the last 2 years. It is a FACT! Another fact? Texas has fumbled 30 times and only lost eight (good#), SC has fumbled 16 times lost 6.
~ USC OFFENSE/TEXAS DEFENSE ~
Onto the USC offense. We all know how great USC O is and all the playmakers USC has. No need to go into depth about it. USC will have success against any defense in CFB. USC will have more success against a stubborn arrogant defenses. OU had it last year. Texas this year. Texas will have too much pride to play prevent which is the only way to slow down USC. Texas has convinced themselves (like OU) that as long as they play Texas D they will be fine against USC O.
Texas is weak at LB (undersized and slow) and DE are slow as well. Lendale White will punish the Texas LB's and Bush will easily have success rushing to the outside. Don't forget USC's passing game!
The truth about the Texas defense is they need to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback. Two thirds of their sacks come from linebackers and the secondary. I think Texas only had 31 QB sacks so they are not a great pass rushing team. The Longhorn safeties are the two leading tacklers on the team. In fact, the Texas secondary has five of the six leading tacklers on the team. Only one linebacker ranks in the top seven. The highest ranking lineman is ranked seventh on the team for tackles. This is not good.
By contrast, USC gets two thirds of their sacks from the down lineman. USC's four leading tacklers are linebackers and lineman. Six of the top seven tacklers are linebackers and lineman. Three of the lineman are in the top seven leading tacklers for the team. Three linebackers and a cornerback/safety fill out the top seven. A defensive end is the second leading tackler on the team.
Don?t believe me? LOOK FOR YOURSELF!
TEXAS
Griffin - FS
Huff - SS
Harris - LB
Griffin - CB
Killebrew - LB
Brown ? CB
USC
Lua - LB
Rucker - DE
Ashton - LB
Pinkard - CB/S
Ellis - DT
Rivers - LB
Jackson ? DE
USC front seven are doing a great job of keeping the ball in front of them with only one secondary player in the top seven tacklers.
How good is this Texas D? Their numbers are very good. But their numbers were very good last year. Almost identical to this year's. Texas still gave up 37 points to a Michigan team led by a freshmen QB. Post #2 expands on this!
The simple fact is that the Big 12 is stocked with terrible offenses, and Texas played Ohio State when Tressel still thought Zwick should see the field at QB. These guys haven't seen a good offense all year. That doesn't mean they'll fold when they see one. But it does mean we should take the defensive statistics with a grain of salt.
~ TEXAS TALENT ~
Remember that OU team USC faced in the OB I think had 11 players drafted after the season and that did not include their Heisman winning QB or their superstar RB. OU was loaded with talent and UT is loaded with talent just like SC but, for the same old reasons, USC will kick the $hit out of UT just like USC did OU. Hell, you do not have to take my word for it, PC gave himself away when he was asked whether or not he could remember a match-up of two teams that were this evenly matched or that was this anticipated and he replied ?last year at this time" with a grin on his face.
That is as far as he would go, but he knows this game is going to be VERY similar to the OU game last year. ~ EXPERIENCE ~
Vince Young is an absolute phenom who carried Texas in last years RB. But I wonder about the other players and especially the Texas coaching staff. How will they handle that big-time pressure? Everyone will have butterflies going in, but UT may just pee their pants. USC is a very intimidating team when they are focused. The mental part of the game is huge and USC will have a massive psychological advantage.
USC is used to playing and winning big games. The only real tough team the Horns have played this year is Ohio State. The Horns got out with a win because of some brain cramps by Tressel and a dropped pass by a wide open receiver in the end zone. OSU didn?t play Troy Smith all game AND Tressel tried to win by kicking FG?s. Carroll goes for touchdowns. USC doesn't make those kinds of mistakes. USC was down 13 @Oregon, down 21 at half @ASU, tight game @ND, tight game vs FSU and USC won every game. Last year in BCS NC game USC was down 7pts early after OU took opening drive for TD. 3 years ago USC was down 7-0 to Iowa in BCS bowl game after giving up TD on opening kickoff. USC dominated both games. This is the mindset of a Pete Carroll team. Tough to beat. They handle pressure well. They play solid fundamental football. Only 1 turnover in 3 straight BCS bowl games. That 1 turnover was at the end of the 4th quarter @ the goaline against Michigan where USC was already up 14pts. Most of USC players have won 2 BCS bowl games. Most of USC?s ?key" players played in last years BCS NC game. Very important.
--> to be cont.
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