USFL 2022

[RBD]

New league, no stats, no idea what's what.
It's tough enough to win when you have years of stats and situational spots to try and choose from, but this is pure gambling, a flip of the coin.
That said, I'm using a small unit size, just looking for some fun while I check out this new league.

I was a big fan of the old USFL, made some money with Jim Mora and the Philadelphia Stars, loved watching the run and shoot offense of Mouse Davis in Houston, with Jim Kelly at the helm.

As a Jersey boy, I would have liked to take the Generals today, but if memory serves, I wasn't a fan of their head coach when he was the O coordinator for the Seattle Dragons. Not that I'm happy about having to use Skip, but I'll take the only team that has a true home field advantage.

As I said, this is pure gambling, so I'll post my plays but they're not recommended buys like I usually post. Not recommending them, just as I said looking to have some fun.

Also, since offenses are usually behind defenses I'll take a shot at the Under also.

Plays:
Birmingham -3
Under 41

 

[RBD]

Added play:
Hou/Mich Ov 42'

 

[RBD]

Recap 1-1

To survive, a new league has to provide excitement, and excitement comes from offense. So I expect the league "wants" and "expects" offense from their product right out of the gate.
I was aware of some of the rule changes the USFL was using to try and increase scoring, but I wasn't aware that they eliminated holding on the offensive line.
First game of the season for any sport usually sees a high number of penalties. Yesterday we had two teams that were playing the first game AND only had 3 weeks of practice and there wasn't a single holding call.
You want to increase scoring? Give the receivers extra time to get open, and the quarterback extra time to find them.

Even more fish stink - I saw a play where they were just breaking the huddle and the play clock was down to 4 seconds. Then the play clock disappeared off the screen, and . . . no penalty was called.
I thought it was just a glitch until the final drive of the game, when Birmingham was trying to come up with a come from behind last minute victory - same thing, they broke the huddle with four seconds left and I thought they're going to get penalized. And again the play clock disappeared off the screen, and I looked at the game clock count off 5 seconds, but no penalty called.

So, I'm going to look at the Overs today starting with the one I posted above.

Plays:
Hou/Mich Ov 42'

 

[kickserv]

Well a 1-2 start is better than a 0 and 3 start:shrug:

 

[RBD]

Kickserv, yes it is, and I was thisclose to 0-3!
Congrats to you on getting out of week one with no damage and banking a profit,
and continued success to you throughout the rest of the season.

Hit with Birm, missed with the Under (I used the Un in the only game that went Over) missed with Hou Ov.

Recap: 1-2
Record: 1-2

I should have stuck to my original plan - take Unders as O's will be behind the D's in early play.
Unders went 3-1, Favs 3-1.

The officiating looked a little better in the two Sunday games, and Monday.
The level of play overall wasn't that bad.
The drone is annoying.
The fat cheerleaders are a tragedy, diversity be damned.
The vacant stands are just sad. I give the league credit though for showing the empty seats, most new leagues instruct their cameramen to use tighter shots of the players and field to hide the lack of fans.
Wondering if that will change this week if nobody shows up again.

Based on observation from week one, TB looks to be a decent squad on both sides of the ball, while Pit coach Kirby looks certifiable ("Okay boys, it's 3rd and 22, on our opponents 35 yard line, and we're down by 14 pts late in the 4th. This is clearly a spot that calls for a run up the middle.") <- That wasn't an exact description of a real play, just an example of the type of genius he showed throughout the game.
His play calling was abysmal, and then there's that entirely insane "SHUTUP AND EAT YOUR DAMNED CHICKEN SALAD!!!" episode, which surely endeared him to his players (the ones he didn't fire because they have an aversion to chopped poultry coated with mayo.)

He's my candidate for first coach to be fired, if the league lasts for more than two weeks.

A couple early buys.

Grabbing TB because I think it goes to -3 by game day.
The Breakers looked okay, but TB looked better. They missed a few opportunities on offense. I think with another week of practice they'll tighten up those mistakes and outscore NO.

And I can't see Pittsburgh winning, but Phil looked incompetent too. No way I lay 6' with the Stars but I'll use them in an open end teaser. (Yes, a teaser, what the hell, I'm flying blind here.)

Buys
TB -2'
Phil -1/2 (2 team open teaser, -110)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Took a loss with TB, hit game one of the two team teaser.
Record: 1-3 (with one teaser open)

Down 2 units + juice going into week three, pretty much what I expected.

Interesting weekend ahead, a game between the two undefeated 2-0 teams and a game between the bottom-feeder 0-2 teams.

I won betting against NJ in week one, and I'm going back to that play.
NJ looked pathetic last week, winning just 10-6 against a team that may be the worst in the league, Mich.
Philly got their first win of the season last week. It came against the lowly Maulers, but their loss in week one came against NO, who is clearly the top team in the league. And the Stars kept it close against them, losing 23-17.

Winner gets first place in the division. I like Philly's chances here, and I only have to lay one point.

And for a little rooting interest on Saturday I'm using my open teaser on the Ov in Birmingham/NO.
Yes, NO has the best D in the league, surrendering an avg of just 10 pts per game, but this week they face the Birmingham Stallions, the top scoring team in the league, averaging 30 pts per game.
I expect at least 23-24 pts from the Breakers, which means the Stallions only need two TD's to hit my #.
I like my chances for that scenario.

Buys:
Philly -1
Birmingham/NO Ov 37' (2nd half of teaser)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 1-5

Down 4 units and juice. This is pure, coin-toss sports betting and it's showing in my record.

I expect the level of play to be less than the NFL, but the coaching is even worse.
Jeff Fisher showed us once again why so many bettors and fans used to say, "How the hell does this guy have an NFL head coaching job??!!"

With 35 seconds left in the first half, the Michigan Fisher's have the ball at the Pit 20 yard line.
What does Fisher do?
Runs up the middle on first down; 3 yd gain.
Second down, Fisher runs it up the middle for 0 yards.
Third down, one second left on the clock, QB Patterson spikes the ball.
The clock expires, the half ends, and stinks-like-rotting-Fisher blows a chance at trying for a FG.
When the teams came back out for the second half, one of the announcers commented on Fisher's bizarre play calls at the end of the half and the other announcer laughed out loud.

This week, I need to get at least one unit back. What I've been doing isn't working, it's too hard to 'cap when I have no data to work with so I'm going to try something different.
I'm reverting to the "Find a loser to Fade" play.
I'll review some of the "writer"/"handicappers" employed by some of sports betting websites and see if I can find someone to Fade.
I'll update this post after I do some reading. I will have a play tonight.

Update: I reviewed eight different guys.
Not one of them has a winning record.
Here are the consensus picks:
Seven of eight picked the Panthers, one had Philly, one also used the Under.
Five of eight took NJ; three have no play on the game yet.
Five of eight took Birm, one used the Ov, two have no play yet.
Six of eight took NO, two have no play yet.

All of them are heavy-loaded on Favs (Gee, who'd have figured?)

First up, Friday's game, Mich/Phil.

Consensus says take Mich, SEVEN of eight, so . . . I guess I'm on Philly.
I don't like the play.
Fisher is a moron and his team can't pass the ball, but they can run and they can play D.
And the Stars sort of suck.
AND they gave up 264 on the ground last week, which plays into Michigan's strength - running the ball.
AND the Stars lost their QB last week.

The line is Mich -1' right now. I don't think Phil will get much $, so I'll wait to buy it. Every little bit helps.

Buys:
Philly

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-5

At 1-5 my goal for the week was to get back at least one unit.
Since no one knows anything about this new league, players, and teams, I thought I'd switch up my strategy. Instead of picking games myself I'd go to the different tout websites to get consensus picks from guys who pretend to know what they're doing. Then, fade the consensus.

The first consensus pick was Michigan so I took Philly and banked a unit. There were three other consensus plays left and I decided to just meet the goal of banking a unit and not play the other three. They went 2-1, so I would have given back the unit I banked.

Consensus picks this week - the best was Michigan. Not only was it the top consensus pick but three guys said TB was the wrong favorite. I love fading guys who think they've divined a wrong favorite. Couldn't get the pick in on Friday night though, so here's the rest:
Hou
Birm/Phil Un
Correction - the consensus play is on the Ov, not Un. My analysis is correct, I don't want to fade the Over and take an Under because scoring is up in the league.

Birm/Phil Un is the second best consensus pick after Michigan. But scoring is up in recent games, and both games this week have already come in Ov.
Pass on this one.

I hate to bet on Pittsburgh. They have very little talent, they are easily the worst team in the league. And they have a clueless head coach. But, Houston benefited from what was it, four turnovers last week? five? and they still lost the game.
You have to be pretty bad to get that many turnovers and still lose. Yes Pittsburgh sucks but Houston does too so I'll take the points here. Wait to buy it though as Houston money has already taken it from 5' to 6, might get another hook by game time.


Buys:
Pit

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-5

Got a win with winless Pit.
Getting 6, they were down by 5 pts in the fourth quarter, only enough time on the clock for one more play.
And . . .they scored a TD to win SU.

Fading consensus plays has worked out okay thus far. They went 2-1 last week. I made a good call on eliminating one of them:
"Birm/Phil Un is the second best consensus pick after Michigan. But scoring is up in recent games, and both games this week have already come in Ov. Pass on this one."
They combined for 47 pts, 11' Over the posted total.
In fact, all four games went Over last week, by 14, 8, 11' and 7'. Games went Ov by an avg of approx 10 pts.

These teams had limited practice time before starting the season, and it showed in the low scores in the first weeks.
Now that the teams have had a few weeks of practice and live game action, scoring is creeping up.
All four games last week surpassed 40 pts, yet the books don't seem to have adjusted much at all - all four game totals this week are Under 40 pts.

Consensus plays this week are Phil, and Ov in the Pit game. All other games, side and total, have approx. equal picks.

I think the consensus on Pit Ov is due to the play of their new QB last week, but it might be an overreaction, they still suck. And their HC is the worst.
Still, I'm not looking to fade any Overs this weeks due to the uptick in scoring I mentioned.

TB looks like a good spot, opened -3 but -2' available now.
No buy right now, may as well wait to see if TB drops any further and then make a decision. I'll add to this post if I buy anything.

Buys:
TB -2'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-6

Only had two consensus plays to Fade last week, and the Fade lost both. I knew enough to stay off the Over in the Pittsburgh game, but I liked Tampa Bay in their spot and they lost.

From last week: "These teams had limited practice time before starting the season, and it showed in the low scores in the first weeks. Now that the teams have had a few weeks of practice and live game action, scoring is creeping up. All four games last week surpassed 40 pts, yet the books don't seem to have adjusted much at all - all four game totals this week are Under 40 pts."

I should have rode the Overs, 4-0 again last week.
Oddsmakers have adjusted, last week no totals were over 39' points, this week none of them are under 41.

Here's the breakdown for each game this week based on "experts" picks.

NJ 3/TB 2, Ov 3/Un 2

NO 5/Mich 0, Ov 0/Un 6

Birm 5/Pit 1, Ov 0/Un 4

Hou 5/Phil 1, Ov 2/Un 1

Some clear consensus plays to Fade on NO, NO Un, Birm, Birm Un, and Houston.

Birmingham is undefeated and Pittsburgh sucks so the consensus on Birmingham is understandable.

And Houston has lost at least three games late in the 4th quarter when they blew the lead, including two of which if memory serves came on the very last play of the game, so I guess a lot of people are thinking they're going to get over the hump this week.

The first game today is pretty evenly matched, no real edge. But until a game goes Under I'm going to ride the Overs.

Have a perfect 5-0 consensus play on New Orleans, but that means a play on the Michigan Panthers which is something I try to avoid. This week they released the number one pick in the USFL draft, quarterback Shea Patterson. They should have released head coach Jeff Fisher, too. Also have a perfect fade on the Un, the best Fade of the week at 6-0. I'll buy that one.

Buys:
NJ/TB Ov 42
NO/Mich Ov 41'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 4-7

Lost with the buy that was not one of my consensus play Fades, hit with the buy that was. (Reminder to self: STICK to what works!!!)

I couldn't get in on Sunday when all three consensus play Fades won. Ugh.

Despite the slight rise in game totals, Overs hit again at 3-1.

Of the 11 handicappers/writers I charted, the combined record was 8-31.
Consensus Fades went 5-0.
Back on Friday with this week's numbers.

 

[RBD]

Record: 4-7

Consensus Fades (CF) are 9-4 since I started tracking them, so I'll stick with them again this week.

Here are the #'s (ATS picks by writers/cappers) for every game:

NJ 5 Pitt 2; Ov 0 Un 3

NO 6 Birm 1; Ov 1 Un 0

Phil 3 Mich 1; Ov 2 Un 2

TB 4 Hou 3; Ov 2 Un 1

I want a minimum differential of four for consensus plays, so only one spot active this week, N Orleans at 6-1.
After a close game vs the worst team in the league (Pitt) last week, I guess all the love has gone away from the undefeated Stallions.
I'll stick with the consensus Fades and take them vs NO.

With a differential of 3, NJ just misses as a CF spot, which is a good thing because it would mean a play ON Pit,
and I just can't do that, even with the 9/10 pts they're getting here.
I have yet to see a single game where the announcers did not point out questionable play calling by HC Kirby Wilson.
Last week the questioning turned into almost outright mocking when he made a QB switch in the fourth quarter.
The QB he bought in had just joined the team last week, and Wilson puts him in the game, at a crucial time, despite limited practice with the team and limited plays at his disposal.

Even some of the 12 writers/cappers I use to get consensus plays are joining in on the Wilson bashing this week.

He was already hamstrung by his total lack of understanding of play calling, game situation, and time management, and a lack of talented players to put on the field. Now he's added a divided locker room thanks to his QB switch in the fourth quarter of last week's game, when his league's worst team was within reach of a victory over the leagues best, and only undefeated team, Birmingham.
If Wilson isn't fired soon, he must be the owner's brother-in-law or something.

The total for Pit/NJ falls just short of a fade, but it's a perfect 3-0 call for the Un, so despite NJ being a run the ball/time-consuming offense, it's close enough for me to take a chance and buy it for some Friday night Fade action.

Buys:
NJ/Pit Ov 41
Birm -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 5-8

Got a split last week, hit with the over in NJ/Pit, lost with Birmingham -3 when they only won by one.

NO was posted as the only consensus play last week, and it won which would make Consensus Fades 9-5, 64%, but I'm updating that. One writer hadn't turned in his column when I was doing my handicapping and one of his picks was NJ. That pick made NJ a consensus play, and they won, so Consensus Fades are 9-6, 60%.
The numbers and records have to be accurate or I can't use them to know to bet ON or AGAINST something.

Here are the #'s (ATS picks by writers/cappers) for every game this week:

NJ 5, Mich 3; Ov 0, Un 3

Birm 0, Hou 5; Ov 1, Un 3

NO 8, TB 0; Ov 0, Un 2

Phil 9, Pitt 1; Ov 1, Un 1

Needing a differential of 4 to qualify, Hou, NO, and Phil fit.

​​​​​​One of these goes today, Hou +12'. Houston has a terrible record but they've had a couple of tough losses late in the game, while Birmingham is undefeated and most of these guys think they'll rest some players since they've already clinched their spot in the playoff. I don't know if I agree with that assumption. The USFL has a very limited roster, making it difficult to rest guys.
The other reason people are down on undefeated Birmingham is they only scored 10 points last week, barely squeaking by with a 10-9 win.
But the consensus numbers say Fade Houston and lay the points so that's what I'll do, and hope Houston, eliminated from the playoffs, quits on the season.

Buys:
Birm -12'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-9

Previously undefeated Birmingham not only didn't cover the double digit spread, they lost SU. Houston didn't quit on the season, they came to play.

Consensus Fades are now 9-7, and with two spots in action today they are in danger of becoming a losing proposition.

New Orleans is a better team than Tampa Bay, and if the whole world didn't seem to be on them I'd like them at -3' (up a hook from the opening -3.) But books don't stay in business by paying everyone, and though it's not 100% foolproof (nothing is) I'll always side with the books over the public.

With New Orleans a unanimous 8-0 pick by the writers/cappers, I'll stick with the Consensus Fade in the early game and take TB.

I might follow up with Pittsburgh (Philly almost a unanimous selection at 9-1, the same differential of 8 as New Orleans) in the late game. If I buy it I'll add an update in this post.

Buys:
TB +3'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-10

Took two steps back last week.
Final week of the season, last chance to cut into a 5 unit deficit.

Consensus Fades are now 10-8.

Here are the #'s (ATS picks by writers/cappers) for every game this week:

NJ 6, Philly 0; Ov 1, Un 6

Birm 3, TB 2; Ov 0, Un 7

Mich 5, Pitt 1; Ov 2, Un 4

NO 3, Hou 8; Ov 1 Un 1

So, based on differential of at least 4, Consensus Fades are:
NJ, NJ/Philly Un, Birm/TB Un, Mich, Hou

Ov/Un all games combined is 4 Ov, Un 18.
The thinking, as outlined in all the write-ups from the various cappers, is that it's the last week of the season so teams that are out of the playoffs won't have an incentive to play, and teams that are in the playoffs will be resting their starters.
I agree with the strategy, it does sound logical, but then again books don't stay in business by paying everyone, so fading the general consensus is usually the right way to go.

Fading this general consensus is especially tricky in the first game of the weekend, the Gamblers versus the Stars. They play each other next week in the playoffs, so the question becomes will the coaches:
A - want to get a win to enter the playoffs on a high note with a confidence boosting win over their playoff opponent
or
B - not want to show their hand too much, and play vanilla today to keep their playbook and game plan a secret?

Buys:
Philly +2'
Ov 41

Got Philly at +3, my bad, at 2 ' - 115 and Jersey money coming in I meant to post it as a "wait to buy." I'll use the 2' here to be fair. Sorry, my error.

​​​​

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 5-10

If you look at the time of my last update yesterday you'll see it's 8:58 a.m., a few minutes before kickoff.
Why come back to post right before the game starts?
I came in to add the line I got for the Philly Stars and was surprised to see that I already posted it at -2', instead of the "wait to buy" I thought I used. My mistake, I was rushing to get a lot of stuff done yesterday morning. There was no reason to buy the -2' early, as it already had a price of -115 on the Fav, and money still coming in on NJ.
I was hoping it wouldn't cost me but it did when the game landed on 3. Instead of banking a unit yesterday I got a split.

Consensus Fades went 1-1-1 yesterday.
I'm buying both of the two spots today.

Buys:
Pit +3
NO -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 5-12

I didn't expect to make money betting on a new league, but I didn't expect to be seven games under .500 either.
Four or five games, sure, but not seven.

In all sports, each season, I always set a goal for units won or lost, a shut off point where I'll close it down for the year.
I didn't set one for this league cuz I was making small bets so no matter how many games I did end up losing it would be insignificant. But it would be nice to cut into that seven game deficit. Unfortunately there's only three games left, and if I muck it up I could end up down double digits - ten games!
That would suck.

Two games on the slate today and I like the Dog in both of them. Here's my take on the opening game:

The Generals and Stars are close to being evenly matched, but the Generals have a slight edge in just about every aspect of the game. Slight.

NJ went 2-0 vs the Stars this year, winning by eight points in the first game and three points last week.
The Generals will try and run the ball and control the game clock, and they're very good at that.
The Stars have the highest scoring offense in the league, but they're facing the best defense (points against) in the division, third best in the league.
And most troubling - all the Stars wins came against teams with losing records. And . . . they lost all their games vs teams with winning records.
A a solid defense and running game is usually the winning formula in playoff games. So the Generals look like the play.
But . . . EVERY write up I read picks NJ.
And the books don't stay in business by paying everyone.

I think it'll be close, and I expect that in the closing minutes, on the final drive, Philly will be frantically rushing against the clock to get a score. Hopefully they'll be within five points at the time.

In what should be a close game, one that either team could realistically win, I'll take the Dog getting better-than-a-FG on the point spread.
The number is NJ -4'/5 right now and only more NJ money will pour in, so might as well wait right up until game time to make the buy.

Update: Twenty minutes to kickoff and 5 ' is the common number now.

Buys:
Philly + 5'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-12

Got a W in the first game last week, so I banked it and stayed off the second game so I wouldn't give it back.
Liked both dogs, but my strongest play was the early game, you could see from the write up I had a strong point of view on it.
Unfortunately, I have no strong point of view on today's game. For rooting interest I'll have something, but nothing worth recommending as a buy.

Birmingham won most of their games, but you can almost say it was smoke and mirrors, some games their opponent beat themselves. But they looked pretty solid against a really good New Orleans team last week, so I guess you could throw out Birmingham's loss and close games at the end of the season as they'd already locked up a playoff spot and maybe they were saving it for the postseason.

If last week's game was tighter, if Birmingham didn't look so dominant on both sides of the ball, I'd be all over Philly this week plus the points. Just an opinion though.

Didn't make any money, but didn't really expect to in a new league. I did have fun though, and that I did expect to do.

Good luck with your play today.

​​​​​