This game really jumped out me on Sunday night and I am looking for some thoughts.
Utah +4 ? think the wrong team is favored here.
Utah comes off, what I think, could be considered a misleading loss (31-17) at North Carolina. Utah played UNC pretty even until a penalty late in the third quarter when UNC?s Baker threw an INT that was returned for a Utah touchdown, but Utah was called for roughing the passer, and the momentum seemed to switch as four plays later, UNC?s Baker hit a 40-yard pass play to the Utah 1. UNC scored and lead 24-14 with 14:00 to go. I believe on Utah?s next possession they fumbled (one of five turnovers), which UNC capitalized into another TD. 31-14, just like that. Could of /would have been 21-17 Utah. Utah had five turnovers and the opening KO returned on them ? just a sloppy game by Utah on the road. Does this line reflect that?
On the other hand, the country saw Holland and CSU zing the ball all over the field on a very bad Air Force pass defense (giving up 280+ yds/game). This coming one week after the country witnessed an Air Force come back only to lose 38-35 @ Utah. Sets up nicely.
We all know that Utah is not the same defensive football team from a year ago, but I believe Utah?s defense is better than Air Force?s.
CSU has two starting offensive lineman hurt (All-American center Bimper out for sure with a hammy injury and Day is day to day ? no pun intended). Will they have trouble running the ball? I have to believe they will have more difficulty and this is a team that really doesn?t run the ball well (3.2 yds/carry). A sophomore will start in place of Bimper and if Day can?t go, a redshirt freshman takes his place at right guard.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/csu/article/0,1299,DRMN_2937_4130482,00.html
Key to Holland?s success, as any QB at any level, is whether or not his team can rush the football ? CSU rushed for 200+ vs. Air Force, which made Holland look like a superstar. Like Fletcher pointed out in his Air Force-CU analysis ? Holland forces things sometimes and is prone to turnovers, but what we saw last Thursday were guys wide open all over the middle of the field due to bad AF pass defense, and on that night, bad AF rush defense.
If CSU can?t run the ball, Holland is a different QB (like most)
? 4 INTS @ Colorado, team rushing yards? 95 in a 31-28 loss
? 12-23 - 211 and 1 INT @ Minnesota ? team rushing yards?..59 in a 56-24 loss (14 of those 24 were junk at the end)
We saw this past weekend that Minnesota?s rush defense is not as stout as some thought.
Now I understand Utah does give up 166 rushing yards a game, but only allowed 85 to UNC (granted that is about their average) and think that 166 is a bit skewed after allowing 228 to TCU (who only had 88 yards passing in a win) and 251 to Air Force, both predominately running football teams, which Colorado State is not.
Four of the last five years the dog has won outright (last year?s 63-31 Utah victory being the fav cover)
2000 ? Utah ?1 (Colorado State 24 Utah 17)
2001 ? Utah ?2.5 (Colorado State 19 Utah 17)
2002 ? Utah ?2.5 (Colorado State 28 Utah 20)
2003 ? CSU -4.5 (Utah 28 Colorado State 21)
2004 ? Utah ?25.5 (Utah 63 Colorado State 31)
Am I missing something here? Any MWC guys want to comment? I think Utah looks pretty good here catching points. Stop CSU rush attack and make Holland beat you. If Utah can stay away from the turnovers, I like they outright win here, but feel good about catching more than a FG.
Would love to hear what you guys think. Stop me if I am betting on last year's Utah and don't realize it
Utah +4 ? think the wrong team is favored here.
Utah comes off, what I think, could be considered a misleading loss (31-17) at North Carolina. Utah played UNC pretty even until a penalty late in the third quarter when UNC?s Baker threw an INT that was returned for a Utah touchdown, but Utah was called for roughing the passer, and the momentum seemed to switch as four plays later, UNC?s Baker hit a 40-yard pass play to the Utah 1. UNC scored and lead 24-14 with 14:00 to go. I believe on Utah?s next possession they fumbled (one of five turnovers), which UNC capitalized into another TD. 31-14, just like that. Could of /would have been 21-17 Utah. Utah had five turnovers and the opening KO returned on them ? just a sloppy game by Utah on the road. Does this line reflect that?
On the other hand, the country saw Holland and CSU zing the ball all over the field on a very bad Air Force pass defense (giving up 280+ yds/game). This coming one week after the country witnessed an Air Force come back only to lose 38-35 @ Utah. Sets up nicely.
We all know that Utah is not the same defensive football team from a year ago, but I believe Utah?s defense is better than Air Force?s.
CSU has two starting offensive lineman hurt (All-American center Bimper out for sure with a hammy injury and Day is day to day ? no pun intended). Will they have trouble running the ball? I have to believe they will have more difficulty and this is a team that really doesn?t run the ball well (3.2 yds/carry). A sophomore will start in place of Bimper and if Day can?t go, a redshirt freshman takes his place at right guard.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/csu/article/0,1299,DRMN_2937_4130482,00.html
Key to Holland?s success, as any QB at any level, is whether or not his team can rush the football ? CSU rushed for 200+ vs. Air Force, which made Holland look like a superstar. Like Fletcher pointed out in his Air Force-CU analysis ? Holland forces things sometimes and is prone to turnovers, but what we saw last Thursday were guys wide open all over the middle of the field due to bad AF pass defense, and on that night, bad AF rush defense.
If CSU can?t run the ball, Holland is a different QB (like most)
? 4 INTS @ Colorado, team rushing yards? 95 in a 31-28 loss
? 12-23 - 211 and 1 INT @ Minnesota ? team rushing yards?..59 in a 56-24 loss (14 of those 24 were junk at the end)
We saw this past weekend that Minnesota?s rush defense is not as stout as some thought.
Now I understand Utah does give up 166 rushing yards a game, but only allowed 85 to UNC (granted that is about their average) and think that 166 is a bit skewed after allowing 228 to TCU (who only had 88 yards passing in a win) and 251 to Air Force, both predominately running football teams, which Colorado State is not.
Four of the last five years the dog has won outright (last year?s 63-31 Utah victory being the fav cover)
2000 ? Utah ?1 (Colorado State 24 Utah 17)
2001 ? Utah ?2.5 (Colorado State 19 Utah 17)
2002 ? Utah ?2.5 (Colorado State 28 Utah 20)
2003 ? CSU -4.5 (Utah 28 Colorado State 21)
2004 ? Utah ?25.5 (Utah 63 Colorado State 31)
Am I missing something here? Any MWC guys want to comment? I think Utah looks pretty good here catching points. Stop CSU rush attack and make Holland beat you. If Utah can stay away from the turnovers, I like they outright win here, but feel good about catching more than a FG.
Would love to hear what you guys think. Stop me if I am betting on last year's Utah and don't realize it
