Valspar Championship
- Thread starter cole
- Start date
Outrights
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 LUKE DONALD +2115
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 RYAN MOORE +3725
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 JASON DUFNER +5750
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 BRENDON TODD +6850
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 LUKE DONALD +2115
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 RYAN MOORE +3725
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 JASON DUFNER +5750
ODDS TO WIN VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 BRENDON TODD +6850
To win
Big 10 (50 to win 72)
Laird (30 to win 1050)
Harman (10 to win 600)
Weekley (10 to win 700)
Choi (10 to win 1000)
GL
Big 10 (50 to win 72)
Laird (30 to win 1050)
Harman (10 to win 600)
Weekley (10 to win 700)
Choi (10 to win 1000)
GL
Valspar:
Outrights:
Francesco Molinari(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(225/1) e.w.
Jim Furyk(18/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(80/1) e.w.
Harris English(40/1) e.w.
Shawn Stefani(100/1) e.w.
Sean O'Hair(200/1) e.w.
Jonathan Byrd(150/1) e.w.
- - A warmed-over chestnut has provided a significant angle in my capping this week, and I've swerved any players who are competing here after having had their timing and swings blasted on the course and the range by back-to-back weeks of high winds.
GL
Outrights:
Francesco Molinari(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(225/1) e.w.
Jim Furyk(18/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(80/1) e.w.
Harris English(40/1) e.w.
Shawn Stefani(100/1) e.w.
Sean O'Hair(200/1) e.w.
Jonathan Byrd(150/1) e.w.
- - A warmed-over chestnut has provided a significant angle in my capping this week, and I've swerved any players who are competing here after having had their timing and swings blasted on the course and the range by back-to-back weeks of high winds.
GL
Round 1 plays (2pts):
Adam Scott to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ 5Dimes
Stenson matched Scott last week with a 4th place finish, but that was the Australian's first event of 2015 and I'd expect an improved showing this week as there is no much uncertainty over the first event after such a layoff. He also has a sizeable advantage over Stenson in that he has played in this event five times previously at Innisbrook whereas Stenson is making his debut here and doesn't sound too sure in his interview about his chances around this course: "I can see why certain types of players have done well around this golf course. It will be interesting. I'll give you better idea on Sunday, I guess" and "it's always interesting to see a new venue and yeah, it should work out fine for me if I play all right and we'll see for the years to come what the plan is going to be."
K.J. Choi to beat Boo Weekley -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
A matchup between two regulars and a multiple-winner here with Choi (2002, 2006); he was also second in 2010. Weekly was also 2nd two years ago, but given that he has failed to finish in the top-50 in any of his other six attempts in the last eight years, it appears that this is not really a course that suits him. Choi holds a 9-2-1 h2h record against him since last year and their h2h record on this course in 5-2-0 in Choi's favour over 72 holes and 7-0-0 in his favour in rd1. I'd certainly make Choi a clear favourite in this matchup.
Adam Scott to beat Henrik Stenson -110 @ 5Dimes
Stenson matched Scott last week with a 4th place finish, but that was the Australian's first event of 2015 and I'd expect an improved showing this week as there is no much uncertainty over the first event after such a layoff. He also has a sizeable advantage over Stenson in that he has played in this event five times previously at Innisbrook whereas Stenson is making his debut here and doesn't sound too sure in his interview about his chances around this course: "I can see why certain types of players have done well around this golf course. It will be interesting. I'll give you better idea on Sunday, I guess" and "it's always interesting to see a new venue and yeah, it should work out fine for me if I play all right and we'll see for the years to come what the plan is going to be."
K.J. Choi to beat Boo Weekley -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
A matchup between two regulars and a multiple-winner here with Choi (2002, 2006); he was also second in 2010. Weekly was also 2nd two years ago, but given that he has failed to finish in the top-50 in any of his other six attempts in the last eight years, it appears that this is not really a course that suits him. Choi holds a 9-2-1 h2h record against him since last year and their h2h record on this course in 5-2-0 in Choi's favour over 72 holes and 7-0-0 in his favour in rd1. I'd certainly make Choi a clear favourite in this matchup.
Round 2 plays (2pts):
Henrik Stenson to beat Patrick Reed -120 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
Four consecutive bogeys from the 14th to the 17th hole from Scott made opposing Stenson unprofitable yesterday, but the Swede's game was still impressive yesterday - he didn't record a single bogey in his first competitive round on this course. Reed has played in this event once previously and missed the cut by six shots on that occasion two years ago. He is already outside the cut line after rd1 and ranking 96th in driving accuracy and 98th in greens in regulation yesterday, it looks unlikely that he will play well enough to break par for the first time around this course today.
Jordan Spieth to beat Patrick Reed -138 @ Paddy Power
Opposing Reed again with another very consistent player. Spieth has finished in the top-20 in both previous visits and in each of his last three events. He is outside that mark at the moment, but he is playing well enough (he rankedd 14th in greens in regulation yesterday) to correct that today.
Daniel Summerhays to beat Will Mackenzie +100 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Pinnacle and Carib]
4th last year and 6th last week make Mackenzie an unlikely player to oppose, but this is only his third start in four months and he does tend to struggle in rd2 - he ranked 148th in Round 2 Scoring Average last year (Summerhays was 14th and Summerhays holds a 12-4-1 h2h record against him over the last 12 months in rd2). Summerhays has shown decent form over the last month and ranked 4th in greens in regulation yesterday. He can certainly score much better today and looks decent value at these odds in this rd2 matchup.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Westwood tb Mackenzie -125; Howell tb Bae -110]
Henrik Stenson to beat Patrick Reed -120 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
Four consecutive bogeys from the 14th to the 17th hole from Scott made opposing Stenson unprofitable yesterday, but the Swede's game was still impressive yesterday - he didn't record a single bogey in his first competitive round on this course. Reed has played in this event once previously and missed the cut by six shots on that occasion two years ago. He is already outside the cut line after rd1 and ranking 96th in driving accuracy and 98th in greens in regulation yesterday, it looks unlikely that he will play well enough to break par for the first time around this course today.
Jordan Spieth to beat Patrick Reed -138 @ Paddy Power
Opposing Reed again with another very consistent player. Spieth has finished in the top-20 in both previous visits and in each of his last three events. He is outside that mark at the moment, but he is playing well enough (he rankedd 14th in greens in regulation yesterday) to correct that today.
Daniel Summerhays to beat Will Mackenzie +100 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Pinnacle and Carib]
4th last year and 6th last week make Mackenzie an unlikely player to oppose, but this is only his third start in four months and he does tend to struggle in rd2 - he ranked 148th in Round 2 Scoring Average last year (Summerhays was 14th and Summerhays holds a 12-4-1 h2h record against him over the last 12 months in rd2). Summerhays has shown decent form over the last month and ranked 4th in greens in regulation yesterday. He can certainly score much better today and looks decent value at these odds in this rd2 matchup.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Westwood tb Mackenzie -125; Howell tb Bae -110]
ROUND 2
HEARN (+102) over TRINGALE
Hearn missed 4 of last 5 cuts....needs another solid round today and played well here last year.
:toast:
HEARN (+102) over TRINGALE
Hearn missed 4 of last 5 cuts....needs another solid round today and played well here last year.
:toast:
Round 3 play (2pts):
Brendon De Jonge to beat Kevin Streelman +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib]
Backing the leader against a player in 2nd place. Admittedly, De Jonge is 0-for-3 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, but when he was last in this position (2012 Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open), he shot 66-67 over the weekend to hold onto the lead by the end of rd3, but lose out by just one shot to Ryan Moore. I don't expect De Jonge to win, but I expect him to remain in contention longer than Streelman who is 2nd after 36 holes for the fifth time on the PGA Tour. In the previous four occasions, he has 75-71-74-71 in rd3 and finished 29th-8th-3rd-26th.
Brendon De Jonge to beat Kevin Streelman +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib]
Backing the leader against a player in 2nd place. Admittedly, De Jonge is 0-for-3 when leading after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, but when he was last in this position (2012 Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open), he shot 66-67 over the weekend to hold onto the lead by the end of rd3, but lose out by just one shot to Ryan Moore. I don't expect De Jonge to win, but I expect him to remain in contention longer than Streelman who is 2nd after 36 holes for the fifth time on the PGA Tour. In the previous four occasions, he has 75-71-74-71 in rd3 and finished 29th-8th-3rd-26th.
Round 4 plays (2pts):
Matt Kuchar to beat Patrick Reed -114 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Two players in the top-5, but Reed has been poor this week - he ranks 67th (of 71) in driving accuracy ad 40th in greens in regulation. He has scored well, but always from poor position and it is unlikely that he can keep saving his scorecard when he is driving so poorly. Kuchar is, as ever, the far more consistent player and, while he may have difficulty winning events, he should be a challenger for the lead at some point this afternoon.
Billy Hurley to beat Nick Taylor -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Taylor is another who has struggled to find the greens this week (ranking 58th of 71), yet he is in 10th place alongside Hurley (7th in that category). Admittledly, Taylor did win the 2014 Sanderson Farms Championship when four shots off the lead after rd3, but in 20 PGA Tour starts, his 2nd-best finish on this Tour is 29th so this is relatively uncharted territory for him even though he has won a PGA Tour title. Playing poorly and in an unfamilar leaderboard position, Taylor should be a player to oppose today.
Matt Kuchar to beat Patrick Reed -114 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Two players in the top-5, but Reed has been poor this week - he ranks 67th (of 71) in driving accuracy ad 40th in greens in regulation. He has scored well, but always from poor position and it is unlikely that he can keep saving his scorecard when he is driving so poorly. Kuchar is, as ever, the far more consistent player and, while he may have difficulty winning events, he should be a challenger for the lead at some point this afternoon.
Billy Hurley to beat Nick Taylor -109 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Taylor is another who has struggled to find the greens this week (ranking 58th of 71), yet he is in 10th place alongside Hurley (7th in that category). Admittledly, Taylor did win the 2014 Sanderson Farms Championship when four shots off the lead after rd3, but in 20 PGA Tour starts, his 2nd-best finish on this Tour is 29th so this is relatively uncharted territory for him even though he has won a PGA Tour title. Playing poorly and in an unfamilar leaderboard position, Taylor should be a player to oppose today.
