Valuist... on the Derby...

[LasVegasErnie]

Hey Valuist, are you still looking at budda for Saturday?
Any other thoughts for the Derby?

 

[Jrdhorse]

Derby

Derby

Looks to be one tough derby this year with a huge field of maybe 20 horses. Looking to invest in some exotic wagers trifecta and superfectas should be a huge payoff this year. I will give you my picks after further handicapping.

 

[Valuist]

I have Buddha in the futures pool at 14-1 I'm pulling for him. Will I use him in the trifectas? I probably won't key him. I do believe the Wood was the best prep but he may have been helped by a relatively soft pace. Despite fractional times that appeared fast, he and Frankel's horse ran 1-2 around the racetrack. And plodders like Blue Burner and Saarland were always within 5 lengths of the lead, which wouldn't have happened if the pace truly was fast. So at 14-1 I certainly like him, at 4-1 my enthusiasm wouldn't be nearly as strong. Still, identifying the key prep seems to be the key to hitting either the exacta or trifecta in the Derby, and he won the best prep, so you have to respect him.

 

[Valuist]

I saw Jerry Brown's (of Thorograph) assessment of Buddha and he feels he will be overbet. His number was inferior to the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Wood, and similar to the 4th and 5th place finishers (Saarland and Blue Burner). I'm guessing he'll be around 5-1, and Medaglio D'Oro, who finished only a head behind Buddha, will probably be at least 12-1. I wouldn't be surprised if Buddha, Came Home, and Johannesburg were all overbet.

 

[Hailmary]

I'm still looking, but right now I do see good value in Castle Gandolfo with Jerry Bailey riding. I keep coming back to this horse! I am really curious of what you think about this horse. Plenty of time left though! GL HAIL

 

[walleyek]

Bummer, Buddha is scratched tomorrow. I had him in a future pool at 40/1.