Does he have a chance? Absolutely. Vargas is an all around solid fighter with solid skills who packs a mean punch. That said, I think he loses to De la Hoya (who wants this win just as badly). Oscar is a little bit faster and speed usually wins.
All I know is if the fight ends up in a draw... I am in the money..
I don't really follow boxing but I have noticed that Vegas could take cover this fight.