England could be worth chancing - to minimum stakes only - in Sunday's VB Series clash with Australia in Adelaide.
There's an obvious danger in having a bet at all in this match given that the Aussies are in the final anyway while England know they only need to get a bonus point to ensure they will be the opposition.
However England skipper Nasser Hussain stressed after Friday's 19 runs success over Sri Lanka that his side will treat Sunday's game with a normal attitude and go all out for the win.
That's got to be the sensible policy because if they've got any chance when it matters against Australia - be it in the World Cup or the VB Series final - they must take advantage when the world champions are vulnerable.
And there's no doubt at all that they are there for the taking right now. They should have been soundly beaten the last time these two sides met in Hobart, an England' batting collapse gifted the Aussies victory by seven runs.
But that at least, following on from the fifth Test win, was another clear indication to England that they can compete with the Aussies if they aren't at full strength. The good news on Sunday is that in addition to Shane Warne, out through injury, Australia are resting skipper Ricky Ponting, opener Matthew Hayden and paceman Brett Lee - all key men. Remember too that there are still injury concerns over bowlers Glenn McGrath and Andy Bichel so England will rarely have a better chance to gain some sort of psychological edge.
So while there's little doubt Australia won't be at 100% the question that now needs to be asked is will England be in good enough shape themselves to take advantage? And the answer to that - judged on Friday's Adelaide win - is yes.
Michael Vaughan's return to the side at number three gave the batting a massive boost as the middle order had looked woefully brittle in the previous two games. Marcus Trescothick and Nick Knight continued their fine run of form at the top of the innings while the promotion of the in-form Alec Stewart to number five was also a shrewd move.
The top five looked altogether more solid as a result and it meant the all rounders Ian Blackwell, Paul Collingwood and Ronnie Irani were able to come in at six, seven and eight.
The bowling continues to be a worry but the injury suffered by Steve Harmison won't weaken them given the way he's performed in the last week. His two overs went for 27 before he limped off and injured or not there's little doubt he'd have been replaced on Sunday anyway.
The obvious man to come in is Matthew Hoggard who has done well with the white ball in the past and deserves another chance after an improved showing in the fifth Test. Another bonus for England is the fact that Vaughan is fit to bowl again as it gives Hussain far more leeway.
All in all then I'm hopeful that England have a better chance now than they have had all series of finally beating the Aussies and putting an end to a record of ten consecutive losses against them.
The match odds don't seem to fully take account of Australia's weakened line-up and now seems the time to take advantage.
I'm also recommending another bet.
Marcus Trescothick looked in absolutely prime form on Friday and finally seems to have come through his batting problems on this tour. He therefore appears the value to be England's top batsman even though we fully respect what opening partner Nick Knight has achieved in the tournament. Interestingly Trescothick has been undone by Brett Lee's pace in three of his last six innings so it's a bonus he will be on the sidelines.
Foe anyone wishing further bets, Alec Stewart has looked in fine fettle with both the bat and the gloves in recent games meaning that his player performance quote with Bet365 looks too low.
They quote 5/6 about him getting 42 points or more (1pt per run, 10pts per catch and 25pts per stumping) and as there's no reason to think he won't come in at five again (unless he leapfrogs Hussain at four) I'm confident he can top that figure.
Recommended bets
1.5pts ENGLAND (11/8)
1pt M. TRESCOTHICK (top England batsman) (4/1)
There's an obvious danger in having a bet at all in this match given that the Aussies are in the final anyway while England know they only need to get a bonus point to ensure they will be the opposition.
However England skipper Nasser Hussain stressed after Friday's 19 runs success over Sri Lanka that his side will treat Sunday's game with a normal attitude and go all out for the win.
That's got to be the sensible policy because if they've got any chance when it matters against Australia - be it in the World Cup or the VB Series final - they must take advantage when the world champions are vulnerable.
And there's no doubt at all that they are there for the taking right now. They should have been soundly beaten the last time these two sides met in Hobart, an England' batting collapse gifted the Aussies victory by seven runs.
But that at least, following on from the fifth Test win, was another clear indication to England that they can compete with the Aussies if they aren't at full strength. The good news on Sunday is that in addition to Shane Warne, out through injury, Australia are resting skipper Ricky Ponting, opener Matthew Hayden and paceman Brett Lee - all key men. Remember too that there are still injury concerns over bowlers Glenn McGrath and Andy Bichel so England will rarely have a better chance to gain some sort of psychological edge.
So while there's little doubt Australia won't be at 100% the question that now needs to be asked is will England be in good enough shape themselves to take advantage? And the answer to that - judged on Friday's Adelaide win - is yes.
Michael Vaughan's return to the side at number three gave the batting a massive boost as the middle order had looked woefully brittle in the previous two games. Marcus Trescothick and Nick Knight continued their fine run of form at the top of the innings while the promotion of the in-form Alec Stewart to number five was also a shrewd move.
The top five looked altogether more solid as a result and it meant the all rounders Ian Blackwell, Paul Collingwood and Ronnie Irani were able to come in at six, seven and eight.
The bowling continues to be a worry but the injury suffered by Steve Harmison won't weaken them given the way he's performed in the last week. His two overs went for 27 before he limped off and injured or not there's little doubt he'd have been replaced on Sunday anyway.
The obvious man to come in is Matthew Hoggard who has done well with the white ball in the past and deserves another chance after an improved showing in the fifth Test. Another bonus for England is the fact that Vaughan is fit to bowl again as it gives Hussain far more leeway.
All in all then I'm hopeful that England have a better chance now than they have had all series of finally beating the Aussies and putting an end to a record of ten consecutive losses against them.
The match odds don't seem to fully take account of Australia's weakened line-up and now seems the time to take advantage.
I'm also recommending another bet.
Marcus Trescothick looked in absolutely prime form on Friday and finally seems to have come through his batting problems on this tour. He therefore appears the value to be England's top batsman even though we fully respect what opening partner Nick Knight has achieved in the tournament. Interestingly Trescothick has been undone by Brett Lee's pace in three of his last six innings so it's a bonus he will be on the sidelines.
Foe anyone wishing further bets, Alec Stewart has looked in fine fettle with both the bat and the gloves in recent games meaning that his player performance quote with Bet365 looks too low.
They quote 5/6 about him getting 42 points or more (1pt per run, 10pts per catch and 25pts per stumping) and as there's no reason to think he won't come in at five again (unless he leapfrogs Hussain at four) I'm confident he can top that figure.
Recommended bets
1.5pts ENGLAND (11/8)
1pt M. TRESCOTHICK (top England batsman) (4/1)
