I AM POSTING THIS PLAY ADAY EARLY AS I AM CONVINCED THE PRICE WILL MOVE
England have to be given a final chance to get their one-day game in some sort of order when they take on Sri Lanka in the VB Series on Friday. Nasser Hussain's men beat the Sri Lankans twice in the first half of this tournament before Christmas but they've gifted their two games to the opposition since the resumption.
First of all they had Australia on the ropes in Hobart, seemingly cruising on 165 without loss in pursuit of 272 for victory against an injury-ravaged Aussie attack. They somehow contrived to lose that match by seven runs and more of the same followed two days later when they were beaten by 31 runs by Sri Lanka despite another century opening stand.
There's no real mystery to England's performances, the batting after the top two is shaky, while the bowling generally is far too inexperienced.
You can't underestimate the boost Michael Vaughan at number three would give the tourists because the minute Marcus Trescothick or Nick Knight are out panic seems to set in.
They've tried Ronnie Irani and Ian Blackwell at three but both have failed spectacularly while it's also hard to explain just why Owais Shah came in at four last time out given that he's not in the World Cup squad. Quite honestly I dont understand why England persist with Shah. He is not a one day player, his batting is ponderous and he lacks agility in the fielding department. Test player, one day maybe.
A top order of Trescothick, Knight, Vaughan, Hussain, Collingwood and Stewart would have a far more solid look about it with the likes of Blackwell and Irani to come in at seven and eight. If I was able to pick the team I would leave Irani out. He has failed with the bat and his bowling is not conducive to Hard flat wickets. This would be an opportunity for England to play a front line bowler like Hoggard or Flintoff when he's back from injury. To me there's to much of the Essex boys stuff with Hussain.
Thankfully Vaughan should soon be back in the team having been rested to make sure his knee problem doesn't flare up again. He's been absolutely magnificent in the Test arena and there's no reason now why he shouldn't translate that form to the one-day side given that his game has come on in leaps and bounds.
Whether he plays on Friday is a moot point though with the signals coming out of the England camp slightly mixed. However such is the importance of Friday's game, it's virtually a play-off to see who takes on Australia in the final, he'll surely be risked.
There's even a small chance that all-rounder Andy Flintoff, who has flown back to Australia after finally recovering from his injury nightmare, could also be drafted in but that's probably pushing things a little bit too much so soon after his return.
There's less England can do about the bowling in the absence of the likes of Flintoff and Craig White but there have been some hugely encouraging displays from Jimmy Anderson even though he was too expensive in the last game in Sydney. Steve Harmison is the problem man and he's been the chief cuplrit in the number of wides (and extra balls) England have given away in the last two games - no fewer than 38. The England management seem determined to stick with him and given the lack of alternative options that's entirely understandable.
The bad news for England is that Sri Lanka, outplayed so miserably in their opening three matches have found a new lease of life since the tournament's resumption. Having been bowled out for 65 by Australia A in their post-Christmas warm-up they somehow managed to produce an incredible display to beat the full Aussie side, scoring a mammoth 343 in the process.
Skipper Sanath Jayasuriya led the way with 124 and he and Sri Lanka carried on the good work against England as the captain blasted another hundred to set up that 31 run success. But surely the most significant aspect of those two successes was the return of Muttiah Muralitharan.
I mentioned the amazing stat in my last analsis earlier that Sri Lanka win over 60% of one-dayers when he's in the side and less than 30% when he's absent. It's not just his wickets but the control he exerts which piles the pressure on the batsmen. His figures in the three matches since his return illustrate the point - a cumulative seven for 107 from 30 overs.
But in the space of an hour or so on Wednesday it might just be that Sri Lanka's VB Series campaign was derailed. Firstly their winning run came to an end against Australia despite Murali taking four for 27. And worse still he pulled up with what looked a thigh injury in the closing stages, bowling his last two overs off just a couple of paces. He's got to be a major doubt therefore for Friday's day-nighter in Adelaide and if he misses out it's surely advantage England. Rummor's coming out of the Sri Lankan camp is that he will not play again for atleast 7 days.
Nasser Hussain won't tolerate any more batting collapses and England's chances of posting, or even chasing, a winning total must be massively improved.
It's virtually a 50:50 affair as far as the bookies are concerned but the odds should be stacked much more in England's favour given Murali's injury so take the 1/1. I am sure that by the start of play, if Vaughan is playing then England will be in the region of 8/11.
The historical form doesn't give too many clues either way, Sri Lanka winning the one match between these two sides in Adelaide four years ago but only by one wicket with two balls to spare and both sides' records at the venue are poor (England 2/9 and Sri Lanka 2/10).
As far as the other markets are concerned, if I spot anything that gives us a solid winning opportunity, then I will post a follow up.
ENGLAND TO BEAT SRI LANKA 10th ODI @ 1/1 .........2 POINTS
England have to be given a final chance to get their one-day game in some sort of order when they take on Sri Lanka in the VB Series on Friday. Nasser Hussain's men beat the Sri Lankans twice in the first half of this tournament before Christmas but they've gifted their two games to the opposition since the resumption.
First of all they had Australia on the ropes in Hobart, seemingly cruising on 165 without loss in pursuit of 272 for victory against an injury-ravaged Aussie attack. They somehow contrived to lose that match by seven runs and more of the same followed two days later when they were beaten by 31 runs by Sri Lanka despite another century opening stand.
There's no real mystery to England's performances, the batting after the top two is shaky, while the bowling generally is far too inexperienced.
You can't underestimate the boost Michael Vaughan at number three would give the tourists because the minute Marcus Trescothick or Nick Knight are out panic seems to set in.
They've tried Ronnie Irani and Ian Blackwell at three but both have failed spectacularly while it's also hard to explain just why Owais Shah came in at four last time out given that he's not in the World Cup squad. Quite honestly I dont understand why England persist with Shah. He is not a one day player, his batting is ponderous and he lacks agility in the fielding department. Test player, one day maybe.
A top order of Trescothick, Knight, Vaughan, Hussain, Collingwood and Stewart would have a far more solid look about it with the likes of Blackwell and Irani to come in at seven and eight. If I was able to pick the team I would leave Irani out. He has failed with the bat and his bowling is not conducive to Hard flat wickets. This would be an opportunity for England to play a front line bowler like Hoggard or Flintoff when he's back from injury. To me there's to much of the Essex boys stuff with Hussain.
Thankfully Vaughan should soon be back in the team having been rested to make sure his knee problem doesn't flare up again. He's been absolutely magnificent in the Test arena and there's no reason now why he shouldn't translate that form to the one-day side given that his game has come on in leaps and bounds.
Whether he plays on Friday is a moot point though with the signals coming out of the England camp slightly mixed. However such is the importance of Friday's game, it's virtually a play-off to see who takes on Australia in the final, he'll surely be risked.
There's even a small chance that all-rounder Andy Flintoff, who has flown back to Australia after finally recovering from his injury nightmare, could also be drafted in but that's probably pushing things a little bit too much so soon after his return.
There's less England can do about the bowling in the absence of the likes of Flintoff and Craig White but there have been some hugely encouraging displays from Jimmy Anderson even though he was too expensive in the last game in Sydney. Steve Harmison is the problem man and he's been the chief cuplrit in the number of wides (and extra balls) England have given away in the last two games - no fewer than 38. The England management seem determined to stick with him and given the lack of alternative options that's entirely understandable.
The bad news for England is that Sri Lanka, outplayed so miserably in their opening three matches have found a new lease of life since the tournament's resumption. Having been bowled out for 65 by Australia A in their post-Christmas warm-up they somehow managed to produce an incredible display to beat the full Aussie side, scoring a mammoth 343 in the process.
Skipper Sanath Jayasuriya led the way with 124 and he and Sri Lanka carried on the good work against England as the captain blasted another hundred to set up that 31 run success. But surely the most significant aspect of those two successes was the return of Muttiah Muralitharan.
I mentioned the amazing stat in my last analsis earlier that Sri Lanka win over 60% of one-dayers when he's in the side and less than 30% when he's absent. It's not just his wickets but the control he exerts which piles the pressure on the batsmen. His figures in the three matches since his return illustrate the point - a cumulative seven for 107 from 30 overs.
But in the space of an hour or so on Wednesday it might just be that Sri Lanka's VB Series campaign was derailed. Firstly their winning run came to an end against Australia despite Murali taking four for 27. And worse still he pulled up with what looked a thigh injury in the closing stages, bowling his last two overs off just a couple of paces. He's got to be a major doubt therefore for Friday's day-nighter in Adelaide and if he misses out it's surely advantage England. Rummor's coming out of the Sri Lankan camp is that he will not play again for atleast 7 days.
Nasser Hussain won't tolerate any more batting collapses and England's chances of posting, or even chasing, a winning total must be massively improved.
It's virtually a 50:50 affair as far as the bookies are concerned but the odds should be stacked much more in England's favour given Murali's injury so take the 1/1. I am sure that by the start of play, if Vaughan is playing then England will be in the region of 8/11.
The historical form doesn't give too many clues either way, Sri Lanka winning the one match between these two sides in Adelaide four years ago but only by one wicket with two balls to spare and both sides' records at the venue are poor (England 2/9 and Sri Lanka 2/10).
As far as the other markets are concerned, if I spot anything that gives us a solid winning opportunity, then I will post a follow up.
ENGLAND TO BEAT SRI LANKA 10th ODI @ 1/1 .........2 POINTS
