VB Series Game 4 SL v Eng

[Pumpkin]

Should be an interesting game. The perth pitch has been a very good batting pitch in the last couple of years and this suits both teams. SL need to drop Kaluwitharana and open with Attapatu. Both he and Sangakarra seem the most capable batsman on thes types of pitches.

Will be taking Sangakarra at $2.05 against Jayawardene at Australian Sportsbook. Sangakarra has been unlucky in his last two innings. Run out by a whisker and Collingwood's catch was one of that even Jonty would have missed.

Think that Blackwell could be some value for highest run scorer as he likes the ball coming on and hard hitters do well at the WACA

 

[UT-Longhorn]

so who are you taking , SL or England?

12/20/2002 12:30 AM England vs Sri Lanka
601 England -145
602 Sri Lanka +110

 

[british bulldog]

Sri Lanka gifted England their first victory of the tour when these two sides met in Brisbane on Tuesday - and it's hard to come up with a convincing argument as to why the result should be any different in Friday's rematch in Perth.

Indeed if anything England should be able to underline their supremacy on a pacy WACA track that will be ideal for the likes of Steve Harmison and Jimmy Anderson who both performed with great credit in the first match despite their inexperience at this level.

England produced a surprisingly polished display in Brisbane, racking up 292 (would have been more but for a late blip) and then restricting Sri Lanka to 249 for six.

There's no doubt that Sanath Jayasuriya's side came into the game underdone as they'd had just the one warm-up match in Australia (a heavy defeat by Australia A) after losing their one-day series in South Africa 4-1.

And it showed in their lacklustre display with some of the fielding, in particular, absolutely shocking. Even worse was the fact that they appeared to give up surprisingly early on in their quest to win the game, seemingly settling for a bonus point.

To be fair to Sri Lanka, England did win the toss and enjoyed the better of the conditions but they were rarely put under pressure - which was unforgiveable given their long losing record.

The top eight in the batting order have now all made decent contributions in the VB Series with the exception of Ronnie Irani who has mustered just one run in three appearances at number three.

That's probably the one area they might think of changing and with Craig White having already tried and failed as the pinch-hitter there's got to be half a chance that Ian Blackwell might be given a go.

The Somerset left-hander clubbed 24 from 12 balls on Tuesday and scored 43 against the Aussies in the game before that.

He does look to have a future with England in the one-day arena - at least with the bat - and has to come into the reckoning for top bat honours if he does get promoted. Given the guesswork involved though he won't be added on the staking plan but it's an option worth keeping an eye on.

There doesn't appear to be an edge elsewhere on the top bat market as openers Nick Knight and Marcus Trescothick obviously have solid claims but their odds reflect this.

Of the rest veteran Alec Stewart should relish the bouncy track and averages more in Perth than anyone else in the top order, though his figures of 27.66 in Tests and 24.00 in one-dayers at the WACA are hardly sensational.

It's a similarly puzzling picture on the various other markets on the game.

I was initially interested in Bet365's top England bowler prices which quoted Craig White at 5/1 but the evidence is contradictory.

White appealed given the fact he took five wickets as England lost the third Ashes Test by an innings but few of those could be described as classical dismissals.

However he showed on Tuesday when he snared Mahela Jayawardene that he can still get the ball to lift steeply and as such he's likely to be a threat on Friday.

However Harmison is a worthy favourite given his pace and it's worth reminding ourselves that he was unlucky in that third Test against Australia, deserving better figures than his return of one for 86.

All in all this is a more competitive market than of late as opening pair Andy Caddick and Anderson also bowled well on Tuesday.

As far as Sri Lanka are concerned it's hardly surprising they are taking time to acclimatise given that so few of their players have experience of Australian conditions.

They last played a Test series Down Under in 1995/6 and their most recent appearance in a one-day international there was back in 1998/9.

Their record in one-dayers in Australia is awful (just ten wins in 53 matches) and they look a side to oppose at present.

Most of the batsmen got starts on Tuesday with Jayawardene, Marvan Atapattu and Russell Arnold making the key contributions. However only Arnold had a strike rate close to a run a ball and that was thanks to a late burst when the match was already gone.

With the Perth pitch expected to be a tougher proposition for batsmen Arnold may get in a little earlier on Friday but we keep coming back to the conclusion that the best bet on Friday's match is simply sticking to a straight win bet on England claiming another victory.

Tuesday's result means the odds have flip-flopped with England now a shade of odds-on but that looks more than fair as they've won three of this year's four clashes between the sides and the only game they lost was a meaningless NatWest Series encounter when the finalists had already been decided.

Sri Lanka's awful record in Australia is another reason to oppose them - and it's interesting to note that their last match against England in Perth saw them bowled out for just 99.

England know they have a chance of going into Christmas week and the fourth Ashes Test in relatively high spirits if they can close out a second win over the Sri Lankans and it's an opportunity Hussain is unlikely to let pass them by.



England to win 4th ODI 2 points @ 4/5

 

[british bulldog]

Just seen prices for team to win toss for 4th ODI.

Now normally this market would be priced up as 5/6 each of two. Typical British market screwing the percentages as much as they can.

Now I know Hussain has been winning the toss in all the international games, and prior to the tour he had won just once from twelve. But for a bookmaker to offer the following prices just does not bear sense. Or do they already know the result?

Stan James have as follows:

ENGLAND 4/6
SRI LANKA 11/10

Now I dont care what people say, if a bookmaker offered me 11/10 on every sporting event that was started by a toss of a coin I would bet all day and all night.

Anyone who read a previous article by me on even money chances will have noted that I could be wrong by as much as 650 times over 1,000,000 bets, hence;
I win 499,675 times and lose 500,325 times
Betting one unit each time @ 11/10 would give me a profit on the above figures of 49,317.50 units. This is the worst case scenero.

So is 11/10 worth backing. Well it is certainly value, one cannot deny that.

WILL YOU WANT TO PLAY ?

 

[british bulldog]

Another winner and the profits continue to increase at a steady rate. Thats it for me now until after the festive season.

Taking a well earned rest and to sit back and enjoy the next few days with my family.

I would like to wish all readers A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR

I look forward to re-commencing after christmas and pushing the profits higher.

Thanks to Crooky, Anders, Paraqatsi, Pumpkin, Parlayin for all your postings and look forward to your continued contributions.

 

[Anders]

Congrats and thanks BB :shade:

Hope u have a wonderful festive season also :toast: