Vegas Books Suffer

Senor Capper

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November 23, 2010

Shopping on Black Friday just got a major boost for retailers around Nevada because there was a sudden increase in funds for people thanks to the NFL.

The tide finally turned for the little guy.

Sports bettors held their ground in support of their favorite teams after being pummeled by underdogs in nine of the 10 weeks, but Week 11 was theirs to own.

?Sunday was the worst day of the season,? said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay. ?I guess we were due.?

Due, they were, and their persistence paid off by not wavering from their strategies and waiting for the favorites to come back.

?We haven?t had that many popular teams come together all at once this season covering the spread,? explained Kornegay. ?Through the season thus far, when one of the popular teams would win, then the others would lose or not cover. We kind of had the perfect storm hit us all at once this week.?

The bettors had a tough time this year with some of those perennial favorites, but it?s obvious by Week 11 that hanging in paid off.

The Eagles game was the final nail in the coffin for the sports books. The combination of seeing Michael Vick dazzle America last Monday night and the Giants losing so badly to Dallas had bettors loving Philly.

The sports books also had to look at the mounting risk from the previous 13 games on the day with all the accelerated parlay risk magnified at 10-1 odds and higher for several tickets.

The favorites ended up 9-5 for the day, not exactly the type of results you?d expect to bring the house down. However, it was the key games that all got there.

One sided bets by all the regulars who laid 7 with Pittsburgh, 13 on Baltimore, 3 with Atlanta and 12 with New Orleans. Throw in Dallas, Jacksonville and Kansas City and it truly was a perfect storm. You have to wonder what we would have called it had the Jets covered.

?It wasn?t just the sides of our most weighted games that beat us,? Kornegay added, ?It was the combination of several of those teams getting there in addition to the totals going OVER. Getting lost in the shuffle the last few weeks has been how strong the OVER has been in the NFL just because the popular teams haven?t been covering."

The OVER went 10-3 in Week 10. Week 11 saw only eight exceed the posted total, but all were pivotal and linked to the popular sides creating more jeopardy for the house. Because of this type of risk, local sports books fared much worse than Strip properties where there isn?t that constant parlay card action.

The majority of the folks that struck gold this week were those people who bet a few times a week at the same time and place. They comprise the heart and soul of Las Vegas who work at positions throughout various Las Vegas casinos. It?s nice to finally see those lost gratuities from the first few weeks find their way back into their home pockets.

Congrats, and keep going strong, because it's only going to get better.

Happy Thanksgiving!


After Week 11, the sports books are not looking forward to the isolated three games of Thanksgiving where the three-team parlay of the Patriots, Saints and Jets will crush them.

When mixing in the totals, the possibility of paying out odds at 44-1 or higher on six-teamers with no out, and a large looming risk for the next three days of games makes sports book directors a little worried.

The books would be happy with a split, going 3-3 for the day, which should kill most combinations and alleviate risk. However, I can?t remember the sports books ever making a killing on these Thursday games.

It?s always been like the football and turkey gods have joined and looked upon the bettor to make this weekend plentiful.

Titanic Issues

The Titans will be in trouble this week after QB Vince Young basically walked out on the team during a 19-16 home loss to the Redskins.

After being pulled late in the game because of aggravating a torn ligament in his thumb, head coach Jeff Fisher pulled him because he didn?t think Young had control of his passes due to the injury. With Kerry Collins out due to a strained calf, Fisher?s choice was to go with Rusty Smith, the rookie from Florida Atlantic.

Young got so upset that he threw his jersey and shoulder pads into the crowd, another example in a long line of immature acts over his NFL career.

This week it is doubtful that Young will play against the Texans and Collins is expected to not be available, leaving the way for Smith to make his NFL debut. The difference between the two quarterbacks is about 3 points.

For the sake of the fans, and maybe Fisher?s job, the smart move is to play Young if able. At the end of the season, then you dump him.

Betting keeps the NFL games interesting

The Seahawks moved the ball almost at will at New Orleans, but were put into a bad situation by repeated mistakes from Marshawn Lynch who dropped two key passes and fumbled twice.

The Saints were winning quite easily, but the Seahawks wouldn?t go away and were on the verge of covering the 12-point spread. With just over five minutes to go in the game, down by 18, ball on the Saints 2, the Seahawks elected to kick a field goal.

The spread was in question up until the final ticks of the game until the Saints eventually won 34-19, and covered. This is a further example of what fans love about the NFL, which the league doesn?t acknowledge. An otherwise meaningless game turns out to being gripping until the end, only because of the point spread.

 

Senor Capper

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2010-11 NFLGames of the Year

Thursday, December 2, 2010
Texans
Eagles -8

Sunday, December 5, 2010
Redskins
Giants -10.5
Cowboys
Colts -8
Steelers
Ravens -3 Even

Monday, December 6, 2010
Jets
Patriots -3 -120

Thursday, December 9, 2010
Colts
Titans -2.5

Sunday, December 12, 2010
Patriots -3.5
Bears
Dolphins
Jets -9
Eagles -5
Cowboys

Monday, December 13, 2010
Ravens -3.5
Texans

Thursday, December 16, 2010
49ers
Chargers -7.5
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Redskins
Cowboys -4
Eagles
Giants -3
Packers
Patriots -4

Monday, December 20, 2010
Bears
Vikings -3

Thursday, December 23, 2010
Panthers
Steelers -15.5

Saturday, December 25, 2010
Cowboys -2
Cardinals

Sunday, December 26, 2010
Giants
Packers -3
Chargers
Bengals -4.5

Monday, December 27, 2010
Saints
Falcons -3

Sunday, January 2, 2011
Dolphins
Patriots -9
Titans
Colts -4.5
Cowboys
Eagles -9.5
Chargers -5
Broncos
Cardinals
49ers -7

========================
 

Senor Capper

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NFC REVIEW


TAMPA BAY

This offense is really starting to pick up steam, much better at grinding out first downs now than a month or two ago. With seven rookies in the starting lineup, three skill position weapons really stand out as strong offensive contributors: RB Blount and WR?s Williams and Benn.

The most impressive thing about the win at San Francisco was the showing from their defense. Gashed by the run in virtually every game (allowing a 100-yard rusher in 6 of the last 7), this D dominated the line of scrimmage giving up very little on the ground. San Fran had been creating big plays out of its play action passing game. The Bucs eliminated the big plays from the Niners repertoire.


DALLAS

Brian McCann is a scary weapon for an undrafted rookie who was languishing on the practice squad a month ago. McCann had a 101 yard interception return against the Giants last week and had an electric kick return vs. Detroit, saved from a TD by a shoestring tackle. The Lions didn?t catch him the second time he broke free, returning a punt 97 yards to the house.

This defense is broken and it doesn?t look as if it?s going to get fixed anytime soon. Dallas forced only one ?three-and-out? against a two win team playing with a backup QB. There was no discernable pass rush without bringing blitzers and the secondary got burned in one-on-one coverage, negating their ability to blitz. The Lions ran nearly twice as many plays as the Cowboys in the first half.


ATLANTA

Not very sexy and no prime time TV game on a major network this year (sorry, a Thursday night game on the NFL Network doesn?t count). Still, they are remarkably efficient on offense taking a steady, conservative approach. The key to four straight wins, averaging more than 30 points per game has been the emergence of reliable downfield weapons on the other side from Roddy White.

Brian Finneran and Justin Peelle caught TD passes against St. Louis, while Michael Jenkins, Eric Weems and Tony Gonzalez also made their presence felt. Matty Ice is making great decisions against the blitz, getting the ball out of his hands quickly and accurately; exactly what you?d expect from a No. 1 overall draft pick.

A no huddle offense that?s not up tempo is making it difficult for opposing defenses to substitute effectively. The run/pass balance from this offense is particularly difficult to stop. The way Atlanta controlled the game at Cleveland in the second half makes me think its Super Bowl chances are very real.


SAN FRANCISCO

Troy Smith is never going to be a Pro Bowl QB and doesn?t look like a likely candidate to carry his team to the playoffs, but he has escape ability in the pocket. That being said, the former Heisman winner seemed to have no clue how to read an NFL defense with this dismal performance against the Bucs, one week after going 0-11 on third down against the Rams.

Without Joe Staley (broken leg) in the lineup, this OL got eaten up by a mediocre defense. When you can?t run against the NFL?s 31st ranked run D with Frank Gore between the tackles, it?s clearly an offensive line problem. San Fran almost seems to have a home field disadvantage -- lethargic crowd, lethargic team.


CAROLINA

The offense was awful again against Baltimore -- nine first downs, 1-13 on third downs, and two INT?s returned for TD?s. We can?t blame Brian St. Pierre entirely for this dreadful performance. Remember, the Panthers have scored 10 offensive touchdowns in 10 games in 2010.

The Panthers trailed in every game early and held without a first quarter TD. The top three running backs are all hurt and the offensive line is getting beaten badly on nearly every passing down. St. Pierre?s ascension from practice squad to the starting lineup had the feel of sabotage from a lame duck head coach.


ST. LOUIS

There are no kid gloves on rookie Sam Bradford at this stage of the season. We saw the Rams throwing out of their own end zone. We saw consistent, accurate downfield throws, not dinks and dunks. Bradford?s streak of 170 consecutive passes without an INT ended on a poor shovel pass in the fourth quarter, but any rookie that doesn?t throw a pick in nearly five full games is trustworthy.

I?m not sure this defense is capable of shutting down a strong balanced offense. Atlanta scored on four straight drives in the first half, and three out of four to end the game. With the offense showing far more quick strike potential now than a month ago, St. Louis could morph from a strong under team in the first half of the season to an over squad.


WASHINGTON

Donovan McNabb entered the game with 27 pass completions of 20 yards or longer this year, a perfectly reasonable number. He had 20+ yard completions to four different receivers at Tennessee. But his 10 TD?s for the season (one TD pass or less in nine of 10 starts) does not compare favorably with his 35 combined sacks and INT?s.

This is not the type of QB who merits a high dollar long term contract extension, particularly when we consider that the Redskins entered this game dead last in the NFL in third down conversion percentage. It?s funny how after signing the big contract, the coaching staff suddenly considered McNabb in shape enough to run the two minute offense today.

Even back at .500, the ?Skins have a feel of an underachieving squad, not all that different from Mike Shanahan?s final years in Denver. And with injury woes galore ? seven different starters limped off the field ? they?ll be hard pressed to make a late season run at the playoffs.


SEATTLE

The Seahawks are really struggling to score TD?s in the red zone, settling for four more Olindo Mare field goals against New Orleans, one week after Mare connected five times against Arizona. But any questions about Matt Hasselbeck?s health or abilities were answered with a second straight 300 yard passing game.

This defense got picked apart all afternoon, unable to generate any pass rush (no sacks, one hit on Drew Brees). But even though Seattle got annihilated, I still feel that they are the best team in the NFC West. That being said, when the best team in the division has five losses all by more than two TD?s, it speaks volumes about how bad this division actually is.
 

Senor Capper

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Sports action

It is still four downs to make 10 yards and three points if you make the field goal. The rudimentary parts have not changed in 50 years, but the level of intrigue and excitement along with your parlay card stub in your mitt has changed the landscape.

How can you be so in tune with an event that the rest the world stops if involved in the outcome? We know one of the answers is put up your cash and suddenly you are general manager, player and ref ? all in one.

March Madness -- "the first 4 days" -- definitely has traction but the World Series, NHL finals and NBA have lost plenty of luster and will continue to slide down our food chart. It is the game itself that has taken center stage.

Pregame shows have their place, but do not need the theatrics to get us to hang around until kickoff. You can't exchange the sideline interviews or the constant talking in all the booths to make a point that?s either so obvious or asinine, but they are trying to justify their existence.

Here is Jimmy's 80 percent rule. We are a betting culture who likes to take risk and seek reward.

Where were you on these endings? With five minutes to go and up by 10, Rogues Saint Pierre throws not one but two pick 6's and puts Carolina tickets to sleep.

With two minutes to go, Sam Bradford throws a shovel pass "to nowhere" and your Rams +3? is on the floor at the Golden Nugget. Not a bad spot taking 12 with Seahawks with the clock winding down, only to kick a field goal. Nicky B was seen sweeping those tickets up at Binions.

Starting to get the picture?

Since we are downtown, let?s throw in the Plaza where someone was seen trying to cash in his Giants' ticket, claiming what he saw did not happen.

The game and random endings are my rationale for taking football and betting a place that will not be equaled in our lifetime.

We love the emotional highs and in some strange way like some of the pain we endure along the way.

Get your Tylenol and cold compress ready for Thursday between turkey bites. You won't be looking up until next Tuesday morning and decide if you?re able to handle it.
 
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