Since I've been the one shouting that phrase, let me make an additional observation.
Up until last Saturday, that phrase has been good as gold.
But I've noticed within the last week there have been some games, where my little handicapping nugget has backfired on me.
On 2/20, UTEP -1 vs. new mexico state. UTEP was horrible, New Mexico State was pretty damn good. UTEP won it it ot, 85-81. Normally, those games aren't nearly that close.
Last night, it was HOFSTRA -9' vs. Towson State. There was no reason in the world for HOFSTRA to be laying that many points. Just using SU/ATS records, Towson was too obvious, so I went contrarian and lost outright.
Last Saturday, it was SMU -7' vs. Nevada. Same SU/ATS scenario as HOFSTRA/Towson. SMU won, but did not cover.
The common denominator in the above examples is the SU/ATS records.
The biggest difference is the short number.
Based on the previous "Vegas does not hand out gifts" trend, the play tonight would be Seton Hall+.
But at this stage in the season, some teams, including coaches, have mailed it in.
This pitt/SETON HALL matchup is a tough call.
I just read in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette where Ben Howland is calling for offensive rebounding, stellar defense and one game at a time type attitude.
This is a very difficult time of the year to handicap with any measure of success.
I'm gonna lay off this game.
Up until last Saturday, that phrase has been good as gold.
But I've noticed within the last week there have been some games, where my little handicapping nugget has backfired on me.
On 2/20, UTEP -1 vs. new mexico state. UTEP was horrible, New Mexico State was pretty damn good. UTEP won it it ot, 85-81. Normally, those games aren't nearly that close.
Last night, it was HOFSTRA -9' vs. Towson State. There was no reason in the world for HOFSTRA to be laying that many points. Just using SU/ATS records, Towson was too obvious, so I went contrarian and lost outright.
Last Saturday, it was SMU -7' vs. Nevada. Same SU/ATS scenario as HOFSTRA/Towson. SMU won, but did not cover.
The common denominator in the above examples is the SU/ATS records.
The biggest difference is the short number.
Based on the previous "Vegas does not hand out gifts" trend, the play tonight would be Seton Hall+.
But at this stage in the season, some teams, including coaches, have mailed it in.
This pitt/SETON HALL matchup is a tough call.
I just read in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette where Ben Howland is calling for offensive rebounding, stellar defense and one game at a time type attitude.
This is a very difficult time of the year to handicap with any measure of success.
I'm gonna lay off this game.
