By TRENT HART
So you think you can pick NFL games? Are you willing to put up $1,500 and have the world track your record?
If so, know this: the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest starts taking entries Monday.
There?s no shortage of NFL handicapping contests. Combine the commercials in the Super Bowl pregame show, Brett Favre ?exclusives,? the decibels of a Gus Johnson touchdown call and the sexual images in NFL beer ads, and the number still wouldn?t add up to the myriad contests around.
They range from free online picks pools to Cantor Gaming?s $100,000 per-entry contest in 2010, since dialed down to $10,000.
Chad Millman is a SuperContest veteran and runs fantastic ESPN blog Behind the Bets.But the SuperContest looms largest. In the fast-changing gaming world, tradition still matters.
?I think it stands out for a couple of reasons,? said ESPN The Magazine Editor-in-Chief Chad Millman, a noted gambling author. ?It?s just expensive enough to make you feel like you are truly invested. Unlike a $25 or $50 contest which you care less about, the investment in the Hilton makes you feel like you are wasting a decent chunk of change if you don?t study.
?And the promise of the payday is sweet enough to make every weekend miserable, and still give you a buzz,? Millman told *******. ?Also the history is unmatched ? there is an allure to playing in the contest because it?s at the Hilton and it?s, you know, called Super.?
The SuperContest has been around for 20 years. The format never changes: pay $1,500 up front and pick five NFL games against the spread each week.
?Some contests change the fee, or put college games in there,? sportsbook manager Ed Salmons told ********. ?Ours is always the same. It?s the old, ?If it ain?t broke, don?t fix it.??
Last year?s SuperContest drew 345 entries, about average. The year before there were 328, but in 2006 there were 416.
Sportsbook staff say they?ve gotten more calls than usual about the contest, suggesting this year?s total could rise to around 400.
Based on 400 entries, here are the payouts:
1st Place: $240,000 (40 percent of all entry fees)
2nd Place: $96,000 (16 percent)
3rd Place: $48,000 (8 percent)
4th Place: $30,000 (5 percent)
5th-10th Place: $21,000 (3.5 percent)
11th-20th Place: $6,000 (1 percent)
The Hilton does not take any administrative fee. In addition, the Hilton pays a $10,000 bonus to anyone who picks 67 percent winners. The overall winner has hit that magic number a handful of times, including in 2008 and 2006.
And to keep everyone interested through season?s end, the Hilton runs a Mini-Contest awarding $10,000 to the best capper over the final three weeks.
The Hilton did tweak one rule this year. In response to last December?s Eagles-Vikings game -- which the NFL moved from Sunday night to Tuesday night due to a blizzard -- the Hilton will release official contest lines Wednesday, not Tuesday.
?That upset killed the last week of the contest,? Salmons said. ?There were so many things tied to that game. It must have had an effect on six games the following week.?
Contest lines came out that Tuesday, assuming an Eagles win. So when the Vikes pulled the 24-14 stunner, the Eagles were playing for nothing instead of the NFC?s No. 2 seed.
?You have to assume the 11-dollar favorite is going to win straight up,? Salmons said. ?A 14.5-point dog wins outright. In Week 17 the Bears were playing Green Bay, and now the Bears were playing for zip. So many lines changed from four to 10 points. You?d have to be an absolute dope not to have gone 4-1.?
As usual this year, picks must be submitted by 11 a.m. each Saturday. You must sign up for the contest in person, but you can assign a proxy to deliver your picks weekly. (See links below).
How tough are the competitors? Steve Fezzik and Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook director Jay Kornegay.
Professional bettor Steve Fezzik, the only player to win back-to-back SuperContests, compares the field to the World Series of Poker.
?You?ve got the best players in the world and you?ve got Paul Pierce also," Fezzik, who won in 2008 and 2009. ?I don?t know if he?s good or bad at poker, but I know he?s not world class.?
Fezzik went 54-26-5 in 2008 and 53-29-3 the next year. Last year he slipped to around 50 percent.
?I had never even cashed going into 2008,? he recalled. ?I?d like to say I got a lot smarter, but the truth is I got a lot luckier, though I?d done well in other contests. It was like a poker tournament when you?re winning every race, jacks beating ace-king. Every ball bounced my way.?
Fezzik follows every line move closely, and using midweek lines often presents tremendous opportunities.
Never play a bad number, he says, unless you?re doing it for game theory. If you fall behind in the contest, you need to go opposite what you expect the leaders to play.
Fezzik found himself in that position last year, chasing players like first-timer Richard Stand and Douglas W. Stand took home the $207,000 first prize by finishing 54-28-3, barely ahead of Douglas W., who won $82,800.
If you plan to enter this year?s SuperContest, be prepared to take on Fezzik and other local sharps.
?There used to be two sportsbooks, the Stardust and the Hilton, that were famous for their contests,? Fezzik recalled. ?But toward the later years the Stardust didn?t want the wise-guy action.
?Caesar?s could never have a contest like this,? he continued. ?They actually kick out the wise guys. The Hilton will always take bets from all comers.
?That?s what makes them unique. Plus, they?re the biggest.?
Links:
http://www.footballcontest*****com/
http://www.footballcontestpicks.com/
So you think you can pick NFL games? Are you willing to put up $1,500 and have the world track your record?
If so, know this: the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest starts taking entries Monday.
There?s no shortage of NFL handicapping contests. Combine the commercials in the Super Bowl pregame show, Brett Favre ?exclusives,? the decibels of a Gus Johnson touchdown call and the sexual images in NFL beer ads, and the number still wouldn?t add up to the myriad contests around.
They range from free online picks pools to Cantor Gaming?s $100,000 per-entry contest in 2010, since dialed down to $10,000.
Chad Millman is a SuperContest veteran and runs fantastic ESPN blog Behind the Bets.But the SuperContest looms largest. In the fast-changing gaming world, tradition still matters.
?I think it stands out for a couple of reasons,? said ESPN The Magazine Editor-in-Chief Chad Millman, a noted gambling author. ?It?s just expensive enough to make you feel like you are truly invested. Unlike a $25 or $50 contest which you care less about, the investment in the Hilton makes you feel like you are wasting a decent chunk of change if you don?t study.
?And the promise of the payday is sweet enough to make every weekend miserable, and still give you a buzz,? Millman told *******. ?Also the history is unmatched ? there is an allure to playing in the contest because it?s at the Hilton and it?s, you know, called Super.?
The SuperContest has been around for 20 years. The format never changes: pay $1,500 up front and pick five NFL games against the spread each week.
?Some contests change the fee, or put college games in there,? sportsbook manager Ed Salmons told ********. ?Ours is always the same. It?s the old, ?If it ain?t broke, don?t fix it.??
Last year?s SuperContest drew 345 entries, about average. The year before there were 328, but in 2006 there were 416.
Sportsbook staff say they?ve gotten more calls than usual about the contest, suggesting this year?s total could rise to around 400.
Based on 400 entries, here are the payouts:
1st Place: $240,000 (40 percent of all entry fees)
2nd Place: $96,000 (16 percent)
3rd Place: $48,000 (8 percent)
4th Place: $30,000 (5 percent)
5th-10th Place: $21,000 (3.5 percent)
11th-20th Place: $6,000 (1 percent)
The Hilton does not take any administrative fee. In addition, the Hilton pays a $10,000 bonus to anyone who picks 67 percent winners. The overall winner has hit that magic number a handful of times, including in 2008 and 2006.
And to keep everyone interested through season?s end, the Hilton runs a Mini-Contest awarding $10,000 to the best capper over the final three weeks.
The Hilton did tweak one rule this year. In response to last December?s Eagles-Vikings game -- which the NFL moved from Sunday night to Tuesday night due to a blizzard -- the Hilton will release official contest lines Wednesday, not Tuesday.
?That upset killed the last week of the contest,? Salmons said. ?There were so many things tied to that game. It must have had an effect on six games the following week.?
Contest lines came out that Tuesday, assuming an Eagles win. So when the Vikes pulled the 24-14 stunner, the Eagles were playing for nothing instead of the NFC?s No. 2 seed.
?You have to assume the 11-dollar favorite is going to win straight up,? Salmons said. ?A 14.5-point dog wins outright. In Week 17 the Bears were playing Green Bay, and now the Bears were playing for zip. So many lines changed from four to 10 points. You?d have to be an absolute dope not to have gone 4-1.?
As usual this year, picks must be submitted by 11 a.m. each Saturday. You must sign up for the contest in person, but you can assign a proxy to deliver your picks weekly. (See links below).
How tough are the competitors? Steve Fezzik and Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook director Jay Kornegay.
Professional bettor Steve Fezzik, the only player to win back-to-back SuperContests, compares the field to the World Series of Poker.
?You?ve got the best players in the world and you?ve got Paul Pierce also," Fezzik, who won in 2008 and 2009. ?I don?t know if he?s good or bad at poker, but I know he?s not world class.?
Fezzik went 54-26-5 in 2008 and 53-29-3 the next year. Last year he slipped to around 50 percent.
?I had never even cashed going into 2008,? he recalled. ?I?d like to say I got a lot smarter, but the truth is I got a lot luckier, though I?d done well in other contests. It was like a poker tournament when you?re winning every race, jacks beating ace-king. Every ball bounced my way.?
Fezzik follows every line move closely, and using midweek lines often presents tremendous opportunities.
Never play a bad number, he says, unless you?re doing it for game theory. If you fall behind in the contest, you need to go opposite what you expect the leaders to play.
Fezzik found himself in that position last year, chasing players like first-timer Richard Stand and Douglas W. Stand took home the $207,000 first prize by finishing 54-28-3, barely ahead of Douglas W., who won $82,800.
If you plan to enter this year?s SuperContest, be prepared to take on Fezzik and other local sharps.
?There used to be two sportsbooks, the Stardust and the Hilton, that were famous for their contests,? Fezzik recalled. ?But toward the later years the Stardust didn?t want the wise-guy action.
?Caesar?s could never have a contest like this,? he continued. ?They actually kick out the wise guys. The Hilton will always take bets from all comers.
?That?s what makes them unique. Plus, they?re the biggest.?
Links:
http://www.footballcontest*****com/
http://www.footballcontestpicks.com/
