Vegas's side

[fsulaxstud1]

Ok so I have figured out why I used to lose a lot of money in sports gambling and that is because I am they typical joe duesche bag that looks at the board and then makes his selections because of what I hear the media say about certain teams and simply just watching the teams play a lot on TV, and also paying close attention to the top 25 rankings. So I have come up with a strategy of "if it seems too good to be true it probobly is"... for example say a #6 team in the country only laying 3 points on the road to an unranked team. Basically it is in my understanding that Vegas wants everyone and their mother to see the #6 ranked team and dump their money on them only for Vegas to sweep the floor at the end of the night and take all your money, so I have been using a system that seems to work that goes as follows:
1- Look at the lines and see which teams I like.
2- Never even consider betting on the team I like I look at the team they are playing and now go to a website to see who the public is betting on... wehich is *********.com If the public is heavyily betting on the team that I liked I now know that...refer to rule 3
3. "Vegas is on my side"- At this point I bet the game. So far it has been working I guess I have a nag of looking at the board and being an average Joe and picking losers and if the public is heavy on that team too... (over 59%)-( the higher the better) I bet against that team. So today here are my selections: I am going to bet NBA and NCAA good luck everyone.

NBA:
I like Orlando -2 at Philly. And the public is all over Orlando, so "vegas knows more than I know and 72.25% of the public is on Orlando at *********.com, so this is a bet on PHILLY +2

NCAA:
I like Baylor -3 at Colorado. And the public is betting Baylor at 75.37%, so I bet Colorado +3

Both bets 330 to win 300
Philly +2
Colorado +3

Remember alwasy bet against the public, don't be suckered into vegas's bullshit

YTD: 0-0 ($0)

 

[fsulaxstud1]

sorry didn't know you couldn't post a website find the percentages somewhere online i dont know if they have them readily available here

 

[77sticks]

be careful on certain teams in the NBA and NCAA.

I have tracked this before and certain teams will win ATS regardless of the % bet on them.

 

[locman]

I would add a #4 to that.. if the line is not moving or even moving in the wrong direction - that is a clear indication of 'vegas on your side' or vegas appearing to be on your side as a dup

i.e. orlando not budging off the -2 and baylor actually going from -4 to -3...

 

[airportis]

vegas is not trying to trick anyone. they want even money on both sides.

 

[big papi]

vegas is not trying to trick anyone. they want even money on both sides.

I believe you are right but I think sometimes they are happy with the majority of the money coming in on one side!

 

[airportis]

fading the public isnt always going to work. i wouldnt be surprised at all if the public is right on tonight with Baylor

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

fading the public isnt always going to work. i wouldnt be surprised at all if the public is right on tonight with Baylor

i agree

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Vegas does not usually want even money. They usually know more about both the game and the public's perception of that game and manipulate it to their advantage.

I'm no expert, but I know they aren't trying to win on juice alone.

That said, the biggest thing to remember when fading the public is not to bet way more on those games. Its not going to happen anywhere close to 100% but it can and does put odds in your favor over time.

Especially, as mentioned, if the line moves in the wrong direction with public heavy on a certain side.

Seeing where the public is, that's part of the homework we do. But other factors combined with money management are factors not to be overlooked....

 

[airportis]

i am pretty sure WE are part of the public

 

[BigFatLooza]

I also started thinking exactly like you. And unfortunatey, there is just no easy way to win at sports betting. This past season I have been keeping track of where the 'public' money is and believe it or not, the 'public' does get their share of wins. One example is this past Superbowl! Very heavy public betting on the Giants ATS as well as the Giants ML. I never would have thought the Giants would win both. Looks like the public cashed big time and Vegas took a pounding.

 

[gsp]

Only your local bookie wants even odds

 

[airportis]

everyone has their own theory but clearly they are all wrong. like last night, 75% or whatever was on baylor and the line moved from -4 to -3 and baylor wins by 13 for an easy cover