LMFAO!!!
Actually it's just the Tri-Nations stuff
All Blacks v Wallabies, Jade Stadium, Christchurch
All Blacks -5.5
Let's make it clear from the start _ I'm not going to bet on this game. When heart threatens to rule over head then never put your money on. That will probably be the case for me for most of the season with All Blacks matches. However, happy to provide some info and thoughts on where there may be betting value.
The naming of the All Black side this week has caused a huge reaction in NZ with no room in the side for wing Jonah Lomu or centre Tana Umaga.
The coaching staff of John Mitchell and Robbie Deans said neither were fit enough for the first match of the Tri-Nations series but I believe neither player would have been their first choice had they been fully fit.
In their place are two members of the Super 12-winning Canterbury Crusaders, Caleb Ralph and Mark Robinson, making it 13 Crusaders in all _ winger Doug Howlett and fullback Christian Cullen are the 'outsiders'.
I can see the reasoning behind the decisions _ Lomu has so many weaknesses they are truly beginning to outweigh his pluses while I'm still not convinced Umaga has the distribution skills to be a test centre. Having said that, I'm not sold on that part of Robinson's game either while Umaga would have been better value on the wing then Ralph _ there's a strong feeling here that Ralph would be approx No5 in the winger's pecking order if he wasn't a Crusader.
The ABs have yet to lose in 7 tests under John Mitchell but this will be their toughest outing during his reign, which has mixed some impressive moments with some real ordinary ones.
There still appears to be some big question marks over this All Black side. Justin Marshall has got the nod at halfback over Byron Kelleher despite Kelleher's superior sharpness and him having the wood over opposing skipper George Gregan in recent match-ups.
An injury to Taine Randell has stopped any pressure on new skipper Reuben Thorne keeping his spot at No6 while the ABs scrum had shaky moments v Italy and isn't an imposing force.
Lock Norm Maxwell in under an injury cloud and could yet be replaced tomorrow by test rookie Simon Maling or even call-up Royce Willis and there are rumours floating that Cullen is struggling with injury and Crusaders utility Ben Blair could start at No15 _ first-choice fullback Leon MacDonald is ruled out with concussion _ allowing Lomu back on the bench.
Things appear much brighter in the visiting camp.
Inspirational No8 Toutai Kefu has overcome a broken hand suffered recently to take his place while hooker Jeremy Paul has also been passed fit to start.
Ben Tune starts on the wing in place of league convert Wendell Sailor, who has yet to show he's test rugby quality.
Australia's build-up form has also been patchy but they will be helped by playing tougher opponents than the ABs _ both France and the NZ Maori pushed them hard at times.
The Wallaby front row is capable of matching the ABs one while the lineout battle could be intriguing. Only Maxwell is an experienced test lock of the four combatants but Paul is a better thrower than Hammett.
The Wallabies have a very big and powerful backline with the likes of Herbert, Burke and Mortlock, compared to the ABs more slippery outfit with Cullen, Howlett, Ralph and Mauger. Both teams have world-class openside flankers in Smith and McCaw, along with No10s capable of running the game in Mehrtens and Larkham.
The ABs have beaten the Wallabies just once in the last 4 Tri-Nations tests, with the Aussies winning both away clashes in 2000 and 2001. The margin of victory over the past 2 years has been 8 (Aus underdog away win), 3 (Aus home fave win but lost ATS), 4 (ABs away win) and 1 (Aus underdog away win).
All signs point to the betting value being the Wallabies getting +5.5 start.
I will have a wee dabble on the top tryscorer market as I think there is some value to be found here on 2 players _ Stirling Mortlock and Stefan Terblanche.
Because of injuries, fitness concerns and John Mitchell's likely plans to rotate players, I don't think there's much value in backing the favoured All Blacks like Howlett, Cullen etc.
Wallabies coach Eddie Jones may give Sailor a run in place of Tune but I can see Mortlock being a regular, even if shifted back to centre.
Terblanche is the Springboks chief strike weapon on the wing and featured strongly among the Super 12 tryscorers despite playing for a very poor and unadventurous Sharks side.
TOP SERIES TRYSCORER:
PLAY STIRLING MORTLOCK $10 (half unit)
PLAY STEFAN TERBLANCHE $18 (half unit)
GL all
Actually it's just the Tri-Nations stuff
All Blacks v Wallabies, Jade Stadium, Christchurch
All Blacks -5.5
Let's make it clear from the start _ I'm not going to bet on this game. When heart threatens to rule over head then never put your money on. That will probably be the case for me for most of the season with All Blacks matches. However, happy to provide some info and thoughts on where there may be betting value.
The naming of the All Black side this week has caused a huge reaction in NZ with no room in the side for wing Jonah Lomu or centre Tana Umaga.
The coaching staff of John Mitchell and Robbie Deans said neither were fit enough for the first match of the Tri-Nations series but I believe neither player would have been their first choice had they been fully fit.
In their place are two members of the Super 12-winning Canterbury Crusaders, Caleb Ralph and Mark Robinson, making it 13 Crusaders in all _ winger Doug Howlett and fullback Christian Cullen are the 'outsiders'.
I can see the reasoning behind the decisions _ Lomu has so many weaknesses they are truly beginning to outweigh his pluses while I'm still not convinced Umaga has the distribution skills to be a test centre. Having said that, I'm not sold on that part of Robinson's game either while Umaga would have been better value on the wing then Ralph _ there's a strong feeling here that Ralph would be approx No5 in the winger's pecking order if he wasn't a Crusader.
The ABs have yet to lose in 7 tests under John Mitchell but this will be their toughest outing during his reign, which has mixed some impressive moments with some real ordinary ones.
There still appears to be some big question marks over this All Black side. Justin Marshall has got the nod at halfback over Byron Kelleher despite Kelleher's superior sharpness and him having the wood over opposing skipper George Gregan in recent match-ups.
An injury to Taine Randell has stopped any pressure on new skipper Reuben Thorne keeping his spot at No6 while the ABs scrum had shaky moments v Italy and isn't an imposing force.
Lock Norm Maxwell in under an injury cloud and could yet be replaced tomorrow by test rookie Simon Maling or even call-up Royce Willis and there are rumours floating that Cullen is struggling with injury and Crusaders utility Ben Blair could start at No15 _ first-choice fullback Leon MacDonald is ruled out with concussion _ allowing Lomu back on the bench.
Things appear much brighter in the visiting camp.
Inspirational No8 Toutai Kefu has overcome a broken hand suffered recently to take his place while hooker Jeremy Paul has also been passed fit to start.
Ben Tune starts on the wing in place of league convert Wendell Sailor, who has yet to show he's test rugby quality.
Australia's build-up form has also been patchy but they will be helped by playing tougher opponents than the ABs _ both France and the NZ Maori pushed them hard at times.
The Wallaby front row is capable of matching the ABs one while the lineout battle could be intriguing. Only Maxwell is an experienced test lock of the four combatants but Paul is a better thrower than Hammett.
The Wallabies have a very big and powerful backline with the likes of Herbert, Burke and Mortlock, compared to the ABs more slippery outfit with Cullen, Howlett, Ralph and Mauger. Both teams have world-class openside flankers in Smith and McCaw, along with No10s capable of running the game in Mehrtens and Larkham.
The ABs have beaten the Wallabies just once in the last 4 Tri-Nations tests, with the Aussies winning both away clashes in 2000 and 2001. The margin of victory over the past 2 years has been 8 (Aus underdog away win), 3 (Aus home fave win but lost ATS), 4 (ABs away win) and 1 (Aus underdog away win).
All signs point to the betting value being the Wallabies getting +5.5 start.
I will have a wee dabble on the top tryscorer market as I think there is some value to be found here on 2 players _ Stirling Mortlock and Stefan Terblanche.
Because of injuries, fitness concerns and John Mitchell's likely plans to rotate players, I don't think there's much value in backing the favoured All Blacks like Howlett, Cullen etc.
Wallabies coach Eddie Jones may give Sailor a run in place of Tune but I can see Mortlock being a regular, even if shifted back to centre.
Terblanche is the Springboks chief strike weapon on the wing and featured strongly among the Super 12 tryscorers despite playing for a very poor and unadventurous Sharks side.
TOP SERIES TRYSCORER:
PLAY STIRLING MORTLOCK $10 (half unit)
PLAY STEFAN TERBLANCHE $18 (half unit)
GL all
