Verizon Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Tom Watson to win 10/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Stan James
Didn't expect to see double-figure odds on Watson, so will rise to the bait. Finishes of 4th and 2nd in his two starts this season are ample proof that he is playing well and is keen and the emphasis on shot placement, off the tee and off the fairway, rather than length, around the TPC of Tampa Bay is also supportive. He has two decent finishes in two starts on this course, but is playing well enough to improve on them and continue his run of top-4 finishes.

Bruce Fleisher to win 14/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill, Centrebet and Gamebookers
Not playing as well as Watson, though he failings have come in the 2nd round in the last two tournaments (he has been 2nd and 14th after the firs round in those two weeks) so maybe Sunday motivation is a factor, but that should not be at fault this week. Fleisher has finished in the top-3 in all his previous visits to this course, winning the event in 2000, and has failed to break par only once in twelve rounds here. He should be able to hold on to his fast start this week.

Gil Morgan to win 20/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Did consider the impressive Smyth this week, but this does look a course that requires some experience for course management. Will side with Morgan at the surprisingly large odds with Centrebet (Five Dimes go 18/1). Like Watson, he has finished in the top-4 in his last two events, finishing strongly on Sunday to gain the place return as a selection and he did finish 2nd here two years ago. Just enough to edge Smyth out of the frame ... for me at least.

 

[Ian]

Sticking with Des this week at the 16/1 available generally, was tempted by Fleisher but have feeling he is past his best now - and he collapsed in the final round here last year.
Defending champ Tewell seems to be getting better each week and the 50/1 at Skybet does seem a big price.

 

[Clive]

Along the same lines as Ian, but have gone with Fleisher 14/1, and Tewell who was a generous 50/1 with Skybet. Also couldn't resist a little on O'Connor who will hopefully put his troubles behind him this year.

Take Stan's point with regard to course management, but I was v impressed with Des last week, and his stats showed he will like this accurate course, so I have made him my first 'bet like a man' bet this year!
B'mad you will be pleased to know I've even stuck him in a double - Lorena Ochoa being the unwitting accomplice!

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Tom Watson(10/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Watson and Edwards had to have shared a knowing appreciation for the difficult circumstances wrapped up in Vicente?s popular win last week. That?s real and that?s a plus. This week I was surprised to see Watson?s odds holding steady. Florida still eludes, and if team Watson goes close again this week, my expectations are that someone with noteworthy credentials will rise up and make things tough to take. Although I?ve only seen it tested on a few occasions this year, I?m observing that Tom?s feel and confidence around the greens is elevating with the rest of his game as well, but that two-ball putter does not strike me as being a funky answer that is long for this world.

Des Smyth(14/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
The price has me skittish about this investment, but I choose to leave this winning wager from last week on the table again this week.

Gary Koch(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
His driving is erratic, and not too surprisingly some evidence of solid and steady form at crunch time is looking like it will be slow to develop. But some rust has already been scraped off, the short game is right there and there's no place like home, so this week I?ll back him just on potential.

GL

 

[bettingmad]

M Hatalsky 50/1 Skybet
Had a great debut season last year winning once, 7 top 5's and another 6 top 10's. Quiet start to the seaon so far but he improved each round last week when making the top 20. Looks a fair each way proposition when considering that his recent form was in events he did not play last year, the Verizon is his first repeat event where he can improve on his 17th place with the course form in his memory bank.

Clive,
Good luck with the double (but as you are against me.... only for the places of course!)

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Tom Jenkins to beat Vicente Fernandez -125 @ Five Dimes
Expecting a reaction from Fernandez to last week's win - his first since 2000 - and Jenkins is playing well anyway - he has finished in the top-10 in two of three starts this year. Jenkins also has a distinct course form advantage: he has beaten Fernandez in each of the last three years, finishing no worse than 14th, while Fernandez has finished no better than 24th.

Bobby Wadkins to beat Gary Koch -107 @ Five Dimes
Surprised that Koch is the favourite here. He has no played the course before this week and has fallen away badly in his two Tour starts - each week each round has been worse than the previous one. Wadkins comes here off a runners-up position in the Royal Caribbean Classic and did gain useful course experience last year.

Jim Thorpe to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -102 @ Five Dimes
Not sure how much his controversial disqualification in the Royal Caribbean Classic affected him, but it was a very poor performance by Zoeller last week to finish 69th. At the same time, Thorpe showed that he was back to his best and should have finished higher than 7th. Having also beaten Zoeller around this track last year, Thorpe would be favourite in my book.

 

[Clive]

Given my match bet record this year I will not be taking part! However, be aware that Wadkins has a bad back, and claimed that he could hardly walk two weeks ago and then withdrew last week...perhaps 5dimes have factored that into their prices? Doubt it, but you never know.

 

[Clive]

Looks like Larry Nelson's back has gone! Withdrawn after a bout 7 holes of 2nd rd.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-0-0; +3.00 units

Jenkins/Fernandez WON by 11
Wadkins/Koch WON by 14
Thorpe/Zoeller WON by 3

Outrights: 1-2; +6.75 units

Watson 13th
Fleisher 1st
Morgan 7th

Great head-to-head between Fleisher and Irwin over the last two days with the lead changing hands several times until the decisive two-shot swing on the penultimate hole. Nice! Morgan came close to securing a place return, but a bogey on that penultimate hole meant he finished one shot out of the place positions. Very satisfactory event overall ... just a pity that the full stakes for this Tour only start next week!

Champions Tour ytd
Matchups: 8-5; +3.67 units
Outrights: 4-8; +7.75 units

 

[Ian]

- when will I ever learn - the obvious is the obvious for a reason!