Victor Chandler British Masters

[Ian]

Be wary of previous course form - there is none!
The new Marquess course at Woburn should suit straight long hitters, I was lucky enough to get 100-1 Wall at Betsmart which was overpriced, I believe he is also that price at Centrebet but only the first 4 places

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

A new course and a new slot on the schedule, though the organizers would rather have their old August date back again this week. This is reported to be the best course to be built in Britain in the last ten years - a joint project by the European Tour and The Bedford Estate, but an extremely wet winter & spring have led to the course being closed in October last year and only reopening four weeks ago. The grass is a little thin on the fairways and preferred lies will be in operation. Rather reminiscent of when the Belfry was first opened, but it did mature into a great course and this course, the Marquess course at the Woburn complex, is destined to be better. I'll be on course for the final day's action, so we'll wait and see!

Virtually all of the top Europeans are on view this week; the only notable absentees are Olazabal and Langer, while Harrington and Price have also pulled out this week. With the struggling Monty, Clarke and Westwood, it could be another strange week on the European Tour. Surely no-one predicted that Andrew Oldcorn would win the Volvo PGA!

The outright selections this week are Retief Goosen, Ian Garbutt and John Senden. Let the shocks continue! Nevertheless, there is some method to these wild picks. If this is to be the shot-makers' course that it is described to be, then greens in regulation stats are crucial. All three finished in the top-10 in that stat last year.

Goosen was a selection last week and missed the cut after a poor opening round, but that performance aside, he has been in good form in recent weeks. With putting likely to be of low importance this week on new greens, the South African's excellent all-round game could see him gain another top-10 finish at the Woburn estate.

The same is true for Garbutt who has played some very good golf since the French Open. More accurate off the tee than the powerful Goosen, he showed that length was not the only requirement around the Duke's course last year. He was 4th before a poor final day took him out of the top-10. Available at odds that have no relation to his talent, he would be a very profitable winner! Finally, Senden has a very solid all-round game and all his core stats are in the top-50 this year. He finished 14th last week after having been in contention since the 2nd round and with a game supposedly suited to this course, he can improve on his 6th place finish at the Qatar Masters in March.

Outright plays:

Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Ian Garbutt to win 125/1 e.w. @ BetSmart
John Senden to win 80/1 e.w. @ Surrey

 

[Ian]

I believe that Johansson is a late entrant and on the back of his current form in the States - 11th and 6th in the last 2 events the 40-1 with Coral is a very fair price

72 hole match bet
Bickerton over Poulter -111 Simon Bold, the latter named player has done diddly squat since his victory with 4 m/c and a 72nd place to his name

Stan
Have to disagree on Garbutt - he has never had a top 5 finish in his career because he does not like the pressure and has said on numerous occasions he only plays because he is quite good and can earn a decent living, a good bet for Spreads and matchups but never for outrights (IMHO)

 

[bf]

guys, if anybody does want to get down on Senden, Centrebet offer him at 140:1 e/w, but the really good part is if you want you can just bet the place odds (only top4 sadly) at 35:1

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

Darren Clarke to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Simon Bold [3 units]
Westwood accepted a late sponsor's invitation to play not because he wanted to, but because he lacked any sort of competitive edge with the US Open only a few weeks away. He has finished no better than 43rd in any event since returning to action and while he may improve this week he will be no match for Clarke who at least finishes better when he is disinterested

Retief Goosen to beat Adam Scott -110 @ Surrey [3 units]
A best of 32nd in his three tournaments since his return to Europe is not encouraging for Scott. He is easily opposable until some better form is displayed and Goosen is expected to bounce back strongly from his missed cut last week

Richard Green to beat Adam Scott -110 @ BlueSq
A popular selection for this event, Green should be able to at least continue his run top-30 finishes and that is something that Scott is not managing at the moment

Peter O'Malley to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
A master on tight courses where 'fairways and greens' is all-important, O'Malley should be looking for a good week. The big-hitting Rumford may find the tree-lined course a little too penalizing for his driving and even if not, he comes off a very poor performance in Germany

Greg Turner to beat Simon Owen -111 @ Simon Bold
An ugly 2nd round 77 meant that Turner missed the cut last week and it broke a run of fine form which included a runners-up spot at the French Open. Players tend to bounce back the week after a missed cut and this is anticipated here. Owen should again produce a safe mid-table finish, but he must be ruing the move from the Duke's course as he had two great years there

Dean Robertson to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ Ladbrokes
Robertson is a second player expected to beat Rumford. He showed last week that he was starting to regain some of his Southern Hemisphere form and unlike Owen, the move to the Marquess course will be a welcome one for Robertson - his record on the previous courses has been very unimpressive

John Senden to beat Patrik Sjoland -110 @ Victor Chandler
Outright pick Senden is tipped to secure a win over Sjoland who has shown glimpses of his form of 1999 in the past month, but consistency is not one of his strengths - he was never on the pace last week unlike Senden and on a course which should require good driving, that is not one of his strengths either

Thanks bf ... yes, you're right, I should have thought about the place only element at Centrebet. I didn't even check their odds!

C'mon Ian and you'll be believing Westwood wants to take a year away from the game! Garbutt is good enough to win an event and I don't believe he deliberately shys away from leaderboards because of the pressure. I don't expect this week to be his breakthrough week, but he has the game for this course (reportedly) and has been in decent form for the past month at least as good as Andrew Oldcorn. He is certainly no 125/1 player and represents a value bet at that price

 

[Ian]

Stan
Only quoting what Garbutt has actually said in the past, that and the fact he has never finished higher than 6th ever just puts me off, however I have backed him many times in match bets and won all of them

 

[Stanley]

I hear what you're saying about his record and he would not be a selection at 66/1, but as far as what he says, I treat what golfers say about themselves with as much trust as I do with politicians!

 

[Ian]

Stan
the words trust and politician should never be used in the same sentence, a bit like fun and run!

 

[Stanley]

LOL!

 

[Clive]

Excellent day today...followed Karlsson for all 18 holes.
What struck me about the course was the undulations on the greens, there are very few with large flat areas and it's really important to land below the flag, as the downhill putts are treacherous.
They lifting on the fairways but the course looks superb, rough is not thick at all but the trees are frightening. Karlsson was unflappable all day, hope it continues. The only problem is that the range, where I like to spend a couple of hours, is miles from anywhere.
Hoping to get to Forest of Arden for English Open next week.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Three of the seven matchups are decided at the cut and two are winners. Both O'Malley and Robertson beat Rumford by nine shots. The loss was on the disappointing Goosen who missed the cut and lost to Scott by six in a three-unit play. The rest are fairly close: Clarke trails Westwood in the other three-unit play, Green trails Scott by three, Turner and Owen are tied and Senden leads Sjoland by four.

In the outrights, Garbutt is out of contention in 54th place, just Senden is a more encouraging 12th. Goosen has gone home early. Back with 3rd round plays in the morning.

 

[Stanley]

3rd round plays:

Sven Struver to beat Fredrik Jacobson +100 @ Surrey [2 units]
Thomas Levet to beat Roger Wessels +138 @ Sportingbet
John Senden to beat Malcolm MacKenzie +120 @ Easybets [2 units]
Peter Mitchell to beat Erol Simsek -110 @ Surrey

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 2-2-0 and +0.28 units

Split the plays for a small profit, but not a good day for the other plays. Struver beat Jacobson by four shots and Levet beat Wessels by five, but Mitchell surrendered his long-held lead at the last and finished one shot behind Simsek. The biggest disappointment of the day was Senden's 78 which saw him lose to Mackenzie by twelve shots, fall five shots behind Sjoland in the 72-hole play and fall completely out of the picture for the outrights

The other 72-hole plays aren't looking too good: Clarke now trails Westwood by seven, Green trails Scott by two and Turner and Owen are still tied. After Senden's round, interest in the outrights has finished.

 

[Stanley]

4th round plays:

Markus Brier to beat Jean Hugo +100 @ Easybets
Anthony Wall to beat Niclas Fasth -125 @ Intertops
Mark McNulty to beat Patrik Sjoland -115 @ Intertops

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 1-2-0 and -1.25 units; 7-7-0 and -3.70 units for the week

Thoroughly enjoyable day at the event: magnificent course and an exciting as well. Pity that the day's plays weren't as good! McNulty did beat Sjoland by four, but Brier lost to Hugo by five and Wall lost to Fasth by three. Slight improvement in the 72-hole plays as Senden recovers to beat Sjoland by four and Turner finally broke away from Owen to record a two-shot win. Green could only tie with Scott and that meant a lost play @ BlueSq, while Clarke finished seven shots behind Westwood to complete a 0-2 record on the three-unit plays for the week!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Senden recovered well today to finish 27th, while Garbutt finished 42nd and Goosen missed the cut. Had rather a rueful cheer for Levet today when he won the four-man playoff, he had ranked two places below Garbutt on the Tour-Tips ratings and had been considered @ 125/1, but I took Garbutt instead!

European Tour ytd
Matchups/props: 52-63; -5.05 units
Outright plays: 6-32; +1.39 units