Volvo China Open
- Thread starter Whalers Rule
- Start date
Round 1 play (2pts):
Francesco Molinari to beat Michael Hoey -175 @ Paddy Power
Hoey did win the Trophee Hassan II in March, but this is still a mismatch. He has had just one other top-20 finish in his last 12 starts, dating back to November 2011. By contrast, Molinari has finished in the top-20 in each of his last five starts, including The Masters, and in seven of his last eight starts. The last time that he missed a cut was in the Open Championship back in July - he is on a run of 17 consecutive cuts made. And it is not as though playing in China will level this particular playing field: Hoey has just one top-50 finish from six starts in China, wheras Molinari has never missed a cut in this country and in his last six starts in China, he has finished 3rd, 2nd, 10th, 3rd, 1st, and 23rd. That is evidence of a mismatch.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Colsaerts tb Olesen -150; Hanson tb Luiten -138; Fisher R tb Grace -111; Larrazabal tb Grace -125; Lawrie Pa tb Olesen -111; Molinari E tb Kjeldsen -125; Hanson tb Molinari F -125; Luiten tb Cabrera-Bello +110; Molinari E tb Cabrera-Bello -110; Fraser tb Hendry -130]
Francesco Molinari to beat Michael Hoey -175 @ Paddy Power
Hoey did win the Trophee Hassan II in March, but this is still a mismatch. He has had just one other top-20 finish in his last 12 starts, dating back to November 2011. By contrast, Molinari has finished in the top-20 in each of his last five starts, including The Masters, and in seven of his last eight starts. The last time that he missed a cut was in the Open Championship back in July - he is on a run of 17 consecutive cuts made. And it is not as though playing in China will level this particular playing field: Hoey has just one top-50 finish from six starts in China, wheras Molinari has never missed a cut in this country and in his last six starts in China, he has finished 3rd, 2nd, 10th, 3rd, 1st, and 23rd. That is evidence of a mismatch.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Colsaerts tb Olesen -150; Hanson tb Luiten -138; Fisher R tb Grace -111; Larrazabal tb Grace -125; Lawrie Pa tb Olesen -111; Molinari E tb Kjeldsen -125; Hanson tb Molinari F -125; Luiten tb Cabrera-Bello +110; Molinari E tb Cabrera-Bello -110; Fraser tb Hendry -130]
Round 2 play (4pts):
Stephen Gallacher to beat Jbe Kruger -110 @ BetVictor
Would have hoped for better odds given that Gallacher is 143rd and Kruger 2nd after the 1st round, but their previous performances from these positions suggest that both should move closer to the pack on day two. Since 2010, Kruger has finished the 1st round in the top-10 on 12 occasions outside South Africa, but he averages over 72 in the 2nd round in these situations; Gallacher has finished the 1st round outside the top-100 on 7 occasions since 2010 and averages 68.7 in the 2nd round in these situations. Gallacher didn't play as bad as his leaderboard situation suggests: he ranked inside the top-40 on the day for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation, so maybe this was merely a hangover from last week's runners-up finish in Malaysia. He is five shots off the cut line after playing in the much more difficult morning conditions today (the morning groups shot 1.44 shots better than the afternoon groups), but he is certainly capable of maintaining his run of making the cut in all of his ten starts in China.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Olesen tb Kruger +100; Dyson tb Coetzee +100; Casey tb Kruger -138]
Stephen Gallacher to beat Jbe Kruger -110 @ BetVictor
Would have hoped for better odds given that Gallacher is 143rd and Kruger 2nd after the 1st round, but their previous performances from these positions suggest that both should move closer to the pack on day two. Since 2010, Kruger has finished the 1st round in the top-10 on 12 occasions outside South Africa, but he averages over 72 in the 2nd round in these situations; Gallacher has finished the 1st round outside the top-100 on 7 occasions since 2010 and averages 68.7 in the 2nd round in these situations. Gallacher didn't play as bad as his leaderboard situation suggests: he ranked inside the top-40 on the day for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation, so maybe this was merely a hangover from last week's runners-up finish in Malaysia. He is five shots off the cut line after playing in the much more difficult morning conditions today (the morning groups shot 1.44 shots better than the afternoon groups), but he is certainly capable of maintaining his run of making the cut in all of his ten starts in China.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Olesen tb Kruger +100; Dyson tb Coetzee +100; Casey tb Kruger -138]
Round 3 play (2pts):
Simon Dyson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +100 @ 5Dimes
At plus-odds, I'll back Dyson who is a former winner of this event and a former Tour Card holder of the Asian PGA Tour. Olesen is coming off a win in the Sicilian Open and after a fast start on Thursday has dropped down the leaderboard after a second-round 73. Given that he has never played in China previously and is coming off a maiden Tour win, I don't see Olesen bouncing back tomorrow, whereas Dyson finished in the top-5 in almost a quarter of his 71 starts in Asia. He looks the more likely to shoot a low score tomorrow.
Simon Dyson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +100 @ 5Dimes
At plus-odds, I'll back Dyson who is a former winner of this event and a former Tour Card holder of the Asian PGA Tour. Olesen is coming off a win in the Sicilian Open and after a fast start on Thursday has dropped down the leaderboard after a second-round 73. Given that he has never played in China previously and is coming off a maiden Tour win, I don't see Olesen bouncing back tomorrow, whereas Dyson finished in the top-5 in almost a quarter of his 71 starts in Asia. He looks the more likely to shoot a low score tomorrow.
Round 4 play (2pts):
Edoardo Molinari to beat Andrea Pavan -125 @ Stan James
Big difference in class between these two: Molinari has finished 6th and 11th in his last two European Tour events; Pavan has missed the cut in both of his. Pavan has made the cut this time to lie 21st alongside his compatriot, but Molinari has finished ahead of Pavan in all but one of their common events. I don't expect that dominance to end in tomorrow's final round.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molinari F tb Colsaerts +100; Dredge tb Davies -125; Dubuisson tb Gonnet -110; Storm tb Davies -105; Fraser tb Noren -110; Fraser tb Gonnet -110; Derksen tb Boyd -125; Poulter tb Hanson -105; Maybin tb Davies -125; Hall tb Pavan +110]
Edoardo Molinari to beat Andrea Pavan -125 @ Stan James
Big difference in class between these two: Molinari has finished 6th and 11th in his last two European Tour events; Pavan has missed the cut in both of his. Pavan has made the cut this time to lie 21st alongside his compatriot, but Molinari has finished ahead of Pavan in all but one of their common events. I don't expect that dominance to end in tomorrow's final round.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molinari F tb Colsaerts +100; Dredge tb Davies -125; Dubuisson tb Gonnet -110; Storm tb Davies -105; Fraser tb Noren -110; Fraser tb Gonnet -110; Derksen tb Boyd -125; Poulter tb Hanson -105; Maybin tb Davies -125; Hall tb Pavan +110]
4th round at 5 dimes:
2 man parlay:
F. Molinari -1/2 -157 over Andersson Hed
Noren -155 over Zanotti
pays 1.67-1
2 man parlay:
F. Molinari -1/2 -157 over Andersson Hed
Noren -155 over Zanotti
pays 1.67-1
