Volvo China Open

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Victor Dubuisson(33/1) e.w.
Paul Lawrie(40/1) e.w.
Brett Rumford(50/1) e.w.
David Howell(40/1) e.w.
Ignacio Garrido(125/1) e.w
Lian-Wei Zhang(200/1) e.w 1st Round Leader
- - At this point I'd say I'm liking the depth of my roster that is taking shape for Charlotte much more than my roster in China, but it really comes down to being right with just one selection . . . An expansive coastal Pete Dye course in smog-ridden industrial China that seems to have rather generous fairways and rather spacious and undulating greens amidst lots of hazards feels somewhat like an anachronism, and a style not easy to fit with many players . . . I can probably pick up my winning marker on Rumford, but I won't . . . Lawrie seems about ready to have his first big week of the season, and the venue doesn't turn me off from a possible match . . . Dubuisson seems more than capable . . . Garrido IMO seems in a better place with his game than he was when he finished 11th here last year . . . Howell is a cool dude amongst the teenagers . . . And May 2 is Zhang's birthday, and he may have a good turn in him.

GL

 

[Another Steve]

Outright
ODDS TO WIN VOLVO CHINA OPEN STEVE WEBSTER +5000

 

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Steve Webster to beat Tian Yuan -145 @ 5Dimes
I fail to see how Webster is not shorter odds than this. In his last ten events, he has five finishes inside the top-11 whereas Yuan has missed the cut in 20 of 23 events on the European, Asian PGA and OneAsia Tour. He ranks joint-last in the World Rankings (1540th) with zero points from eights events over the last two years; Webster is 155th.

Richie Ramsay to beat Maximilian Kieffer -125 @ Bet365
Kieffer finished 2nd in his last outing after a marathon playoff loss to Raphael Jacquelin ... I'm not surprised that he rested last week. But the key point is that was in Spain, he has never played in a Tour event in South-East Asia or China until this week. For all his form two weeks ago, he will be playing in very different conditions this week. That should be a problem for Ramsay who has three top-4 finishes in China and he also has course experience, finishing the first round inside the top-10 last year.

Romain Wattel to beat Maximilian Kieffer -140 @ 5Dimes
Shorter odds for Wattel to beat Kieffer, but still value. He finished 4th in South Korea last week and, like Ramsay, he does have course experience having played here last year when the course was first used. That should be enough to beat Kieffer who I think will struggle this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Drysdale tb Havret -130; Meeswat tb Hu -130]

 

[Let's Have Fun]

rumford 10-1

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Matthew Baldwin to beat Robert-Jan Derksen -120 @ Stan James
This is the 6th time that Derksen has held the lead after rd1 on a European Tour event; only once in those five previous occasions did he shoot a sub-70 score in rd2 and in all five occasions did he fall out of the lead on day two. Backing Baldwin to take advantage as he continued his fine form on this course - he held the rd1 lead last year and finished inside the top-15.

Matthew Baldwin to beat Ricardo Santos -110 @ 5Dimes
Backing Baldwin to beat Santos as well. He did play well today to be alongside Baldwin in 11th place after rd1, but he hasn't made a cut since February. With Baldwin's better form, which includes a top-5 finish in the Trophee Hassan II, and course record, it is surprising that Santos is priced as the favourite in this matchup.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Fabrizio Zanotti to beat Hyung-Joon Lee -150 @ Bet365, Ladbrokes and William Hill [available generally]
Zanotti finished 6th last year and is continuing his form on this course - he is currently 16th, but ranks 5th in greens in regulation so this is clearly a course that suits his game. By contrast, Lee ranks 91st in greens in regulation this week so has made the cut based on a hot putter. Given that he has, like Yuan in rd1, earned no OWGR points over the last two years, it looks very unlikely that he will maintain his current top-20 position.

Kristoffer Broberg to beat Byeong-Hun An -135 @ 5Dimes
Not quite the same difference in World Rankings between these two players: there are 655 places between Broberg and An. This has been a disappointing season so far for Broberg after his successes last season, but he should still beat An many times than these odds suggest.

Richie Ramsay to beat Mikko Ilonen -120 @ Stan James
Opposing Ilonen who leads this event, but this is the first time in over five years that he has held the lead after any round in a European Tour event, so I don't expect him to play like he did back in 2007/08. Ramsay's form in China has been highlighted above and he currently sits inside the top-10, so a good round is more likely from the Scot than the Finn.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Rumford tb Ilonen -116; Larrazabal tb Slattery -138]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):

Thomas Bjorn to beat Matthew Baldwin -111 @ Bet365 [available generally]
Apart from the Trophee Hassan II where he is a course specialist, this is the first time that Baldwin has started the final round of a European Tour event inside the top-10. That is rarely an indication that the player will perform well in the pressure of the final round so I will back Bjorn who has already secured six top-5 finishes in China.

Branden Grace to beat Paul Waring -163 @ Stan James [available generally]
Grace already has a win in China being the defending champion, whereas Waring has yet to secure a top-20 finish in this country. With Grace finishing ahead of Waring in six of their last seven common events, it is the South African who dominates this matchup and so deserves the short odds.

Paul Lawrie to beat Steve Webster -119 @ Pinnacle [available generally] [2pts]
Two more players starting the final round inside the top-10. For Lawrie, this will be the 5th time in the last 12 months and on the previous four occasions, he has shot 66-68-70-69 to finish 2nd, 1st, 6th and 7th. For Webster, this will be the 5th time since April 2012 and on his previous four occasions, he shot 74-74-72-70 to finish 31st, 18th, 7th and 7th. Quite a contrast between these two, so the value should lie with Lawrie.

Soren Hansen to beat Tommy Fleetwood +138 @ Bet365 [available generally] [2pts]
Hansen is another with a good record in China - 19 cuts made in 21 events. He has only started playing again after rib and hand injuries ended his 2012 season in May, but he has been improving in each of his three events ths year, currently sits in 22nd place on the leaderboard and leads this event in terms of birdies recorded (seven in today's round alone). He certainly shouldn't be at such long odds to beat a player whom he has finished behind just once in their last seven common events.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Gallacher tb Aguilar -119]