VOLVO GOLF CHAMPIONS

[Another Steve]

I will CoatTail these Plays

ODDS TO WIN VOLVO GOLF CHAMPIONS PAUL CASEY +2200
ODDS TO WIN VOLVO GOLF CHAMPIONS JAMIE DONALDSON +2800

 

[Let's Have Fun]

Shane Lowry 40-1

 

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts unless stated):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Paul Casey +120 @ Stan James, Paddy Power and BetVictor [available generally]
Casey is being well-backed for this event, so that normally means that the value lies on the opposite side by now. But there are other reasons for expecting Casey not to perform as well as expected, at least in the first round. The first is that he always avoids playing in South Africa - he played two events there in 2003, but otherwise has always skipped these events. For a country that hosted five events on the European Tour in 2012, four per year in 2010 and 2011 and three per year beforehand, that is a large part of the Tour schedule for such a leading player to miss unless it was a deliberate decision to avoid playing there. Given the nature of the courses, and particularly the grasses on South African courses, that should make this week a steep learning curve for the Englishman. Contrast that to Cabrera-Bello who has played seven times since 2008, making the cut all but once, and the familiarity with the course and the conditions lies with the Spaniard. Casey did show some form towards the end of 2012 after a long rehabilitation process following a snowboarding accident 12 months ago, but his blog on his website has an article entitled 'looking for a return to form in Abu Dhabi' (next week's event). There is no mention of this week's event and a 'return to form'? Maybe his expectations of this week are lower than those of others? For his part, Cabrera-Bello is an 'under-the-radar' player who ranks 58th in the World Rankings and while he may have had a losing h2h record against Casey in rd3 and rd4 in 2012, he had a 14-5 h2h record against Casey in the first two rounds in 2012. So I'll take these odds on the Spaniard until the weekend starts, at least.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Darren Clarke(80/1) e.w.
Thorbjorn Olesen(22/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(22/1) e.w.
- - I absolutely love the look of the course, but I will probably be hating the leaderboard.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Retief Goosen to beat Brendan Grace +120 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
A matchup between two of the players in last year's playoff. Grace won on that occasion, but the difference this season is that Goosen is now fully fit after his back operation five months ago. In terms of form, Grace had just two top-30 finishes in his last six starts of 2012 and he has been well off the pace this week, so he looks far more opposable now that 12 months ago when he won back-to-back events in South Africa. So the value should lie with a player who is fit again and has finished 5th and 2nd in his previous two visits to Durban CC.

Jose Maria Olazabal to beat Michael Hoey +125 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
With a 15th place finish in his last event of 2012, Olazabal may still be a player to back when at odds such as these, against a player such as Hoey. He did win the Trophee Hassan II in March, but thereafter has secured just three top-50 finishes in his 21 starts. Yet to break par this week, there is little sign that he has rediscovered any form and so can be opposed.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Thomas Bjorn to bear Branden Grace +110 @ Bet365
A birdie on the final hole was enough for Grace to beat Goosen today, but I'll still oppose him in this round. Despite winning five times in 2012, he averaged over 72 for the 4th round in 2012 and in those 23 4th rounds, he managed to improve his position relative to the 3rd round just five times. So, it should be no surprise that Bjorn had a 5-2 h2h record against Grace last year in the final round. Of his form this week, he still does not look a player who won five times last year. He ranks 32nd of 33 in terms of greens in regulation with the obvious cause being his driving - he ranks 31st of 33 in driving accuracy. Bjorn had a poor round today, but he has shown enough form recently to bounce back, so there is value at these odds.

Matteo Manassero to beat Branden Grace +100 @ Paddy Power
Making his debut on this course, Manassero has lowered his score with every round so far and now sits in the top-10. A winner of the Singapore Open (and 4th in the Hong Kong Open) at the end of last year, there is no way that he should be plus-odds against Grace in any round except in South Africa. But Grace has shown little to indicate that home advantage will aid him to any significant degree this week.

Padraig Harrington to beat Paul Lawrie -111 @ Bet365
A back-nine of 31 has brought Harrington back into contention if Jamieson were to implode tomorrow. Normally one of the most hypochondriac players on the European Tour, it has been surprisingly to see him so positive within his pre-season interviews. On the basis of this week's performances this far, there certainly is reason to be more positive and I'll back him when he is in this type of mood and form.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Colsaerts tb Grace -110]

 

[Carl S. Leboeuf]

Round 1 play (4pts unless stated):

Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Paul Casey +120 @ Stan James, Paddy Power and BetVictor [available generally]
Casey is being well-backed for this event, so that normally means that the value lies on the opposite side by now. But there are other reasons for expecting Casey not to perform as well as expected, at least in the first round. The first is that he always avoids playing in South Africa - he played two events there in 2003, but otherwise has always skipped these events. For a country that hosted five events on the European Tour in 2012, four per year in 2010 and 2011 and three per year beforehand, that is a large part of the Tour schedule for such a leading player to miss unless it was a deliberate decision to avoid playing there. Given the nature of the courses, and particularly the grasses on South African courses and amazing golf balls for beginners, that should make this week a steep learning curve for the Englishman. Contrast that to Cabrera-Bello who has played seven times since 2008, making the cut all but once, and the familiarity with the course and the conditions lies with the Spaniard. Casey did show some form towards the end of 2012 after a long rehabilitation process following a snowboarding accident 12 months ago, but his blog on his website has an article entitled 'looking for a return to form in Abu Dhabi' (next week's event). There is no mention of this week's event and a 'return to form'? Maybe his expectations of this week are lower than those of others? For his part, Cabrera-Bello is an 'under-the-radar' player who ranks 58th in the World Rankings and while he may have had a losing h2h record against Casey in rd3 and rd4 in 2012, he had a 14-5 h2h record against Casey in the first two rounds in 2012. So I'll take these odds on the Spaniard until the weekend starts, at least.

All become our history .... :0002