The final event of the year for the European Tour is a gathering of the top-66 players on the Tour - though not all based on performance - in southern Spain. With the WGC event being played along the coast next week, the Europeans should have a decisive advantage, though apart from Miguel Angel Jimenez, it was the opposite last year. Twelve months ago, Jimenez stormed to victory in this event and pushed Tiger all the way the following week at Valderrama.?
The course has hosted this event for the past three years and the winners in that time have been Jimenez, Clarke and Westwood. This will be no putting contest where a ridiculously low final round score can produce a surprise winner. This is a course for good ball-strikers. In 1998, the top-7 finishers were all placed in the top-11 of that season's greens in regulation stats; external factors changed the nature of the course last year after rain threatened to prevent the event from even starting, but Jimenez was 3rd in the last year's greens in regulation stats and 2nd placed Langer was 7th. The tournament had been reduced to 54 holes in 1997, but this year it has been dry and the greens in regulation players will again dominate.
At the moment, the weather forecast for Seville (one hour from the course) is for heavy showers on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. The importance of a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon tee-time is clear and as yet the draw has not been made, so these are still just early thoughts until more information becomes available.
Basically, I see this as a tournament that can be won by seven players only. Ahead of the rest are Westwood and Monty, and then come Clarke, Campbell, Harrington, Jimenez and Garcia. I cannot split these players within these two groups, so tee-times will be instrumental. Westwood won this event in 1997 and would be a strong play if he had not become so irritated by his putting at the Italian Open last week. Monty similarly has a decent record on this course and showed a great return to form at the German Masters and the Cisco World Matchplay - he is more likely to be favored with the larger odds, though a play on them both is unlikely.
Of the rest, Clarke won this event in 1998 and was 5th last year, but does not warrant odds of 10/1; Campbell was 7th last year and comes off a great Presidents Cup campaign, but better odds than 18/1 were hoped for; Harrington has been a profitable pick of late, finishing 3rd, 3rd & 1st in his last three events and has a record of two 2nd place finishes in three years here, but his odds have dropped considerably from previous weeks as a result; Jimenez is the defending champion and has always good form in southern Spain, but does not appear to current have the ability to win events that he had twelve months ago; while Garcia is one capable of winning, but has shown little evidence of doing so in recent weeks and the slow greens at Montecastillo will not be to his liking.
On a course and event like this I am struggling to find an outsider to even get a place finish, while the above are not available at very attractive odds. But as soon as the weather forecast is firmed and the tee-times are known, I'll post the final outright plays, but for now, I'd say it will be a good week for Monty.
The course has hosted this event for the past three years and the winners in that time have been Jimenez, Clarke and Westwood. This will be no putting contest where a ridiculously low final round score can produce a surprise winner. This is a course for good ball-strikers. In 1998, the top-7 finishers were all placed in the top-11 of that season's greens in regulation stats; external factors changed the nature of the course last year after rain threatened to prevent the event from even starting, but Jimenez was 3rd in the last year's greens in regulation stats and 2nd placed Langer was 7th. The tournament had been reduced to 54 holes in 1997, but this year it has been dry and the greens in regulation players will again dominate.
At the moment, the weather forecast for Seville (one hour from the course) is for heavy showers on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. The importance of a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon tee-time is clear and as yet the draw has not been made, so these are still just early thoughts until more information becomes available.
Basically, I see this as a tournament that can be won by seven players only. Ahead of the rest are Westwood and Monty, and then come Clarke, Campbell, Harrington, Jimenez and Garcia. I cannot split these players within these two groups, so tee-times will be instrumental. Westwood won this event in 1997 and would be a strong play if he had not become so irritated by his putting at the Italian Open last week. Monty similarly has a decent record on this course and showed a great return to form at the German Masters and the Cisco World Matchplay - he is more likely to be favored with the larger odds, though a play on them both is unlikely.
Of the rest, Clarke won this event in 1998 and was 5th last year, but does not warrant odds of 10/1; Campbell was 7th last year and comes off a great Presidents Cup campaign, but better odds than 18/1 were hoped for; Harrington has been a profitable pick of late, finishing 3rd, 3rd & 1st in his last three events and has a record of two 2nd place finishes in three years here, but his odds have dropped considerably from previous weeks as a result; Jimenez is the defending champion and has always good form in southern Spain, but does not appear to current have the ability to win events that he had twelve months ago; while Garcia is one capable of winning, but has shown little evidence of doing so in recent weeks and the slow greens at Montecastillo will not be to his liking.
On a course and event like this I am struggling to find an outsider to even get a place finish, while the above are not available at very attractive odds. But as soon as the weather forecast is firmed and the tee-times are known, I'll post the final outright plays, but for now, I'd say it will be a good week for Monty.
