Outright plays:
Niclas Fasth to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and BetFred [2pts]
A double-play on Fasth who responded very encouraging with a 66 on Sunday. That response was to a 3rd-round 79 which saw him give up 15 shots on the winner, Gregory Bourdy, on Saturday, but still only finish 12 shots back at the end of the tournament. And having finished 11th, 4th and 10th in his previous three events, it was clear that he was in very good form and deserving of 2nd-favouritism to Garcia. He trails Garcia again this week in the market and also Harrington, Rose, Poulter and Donald, but there is little to fear from this group and their wins:starts ratio. Fasth beat a strong field to win the BMW International Open in July and won two events in Spain last year on this Tour. With a course record that reads 7th and 5th in the last two years and with a determination that is unusually strong (relative to other Tour pros) at this time of the year, he really should be a very strong candidate this week for the title.
Peter Hanson to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes [1pt]
Hanson has also won in Spain with victory in the 2005 Open de Espana and, in terms of Valderrama, held the lead during the final round in 2004, eventually finishing 4th, just outside the playoff between Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia. It was still his highest finish on the European Tour at the time and as a player who always ranks highly in the greens in regulation stats (currently 6th on Tour; the same as last year), Valderrama is a course that suits. He has shown good form recently with finishes of 10th and 3rd in his last two events, so odds of 40/1 had not been expected.
Niclas Fasth to win 20/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and BetFred [2pts]
A double-play on Fasth who responded very encouraging with a 66 on Sunday. That response was to a 3rd-round 79 which saw him give up 15 shots on the winner, Gregory Bourdy, on Saturday, but still only finish 12 shots back at the end of the tournament. And having finished 11th, 4th and 10th in his previous three events, it was clear that he was in very good form and deserving of 2nd-favouritism to Garcia. He trails Garcia again this week in the market and also Harrington, Rose, Poulter and Donald, but there is little to fear from this group and their wins:starts ratio. Fasth beat a strong field to win the BMW International Open in July and won two events in Spain last year on this Tour. With a course record that reads 7th and 5th in the last two years and with a determination that is unusually strong (relative to other Tour pros) at this time of the year, he really should be a very strong candidate this week for the title.
Peter Hanson to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes [1pt]
Hanson has also won in Spain with victory in the 2005 Open de Espana and, in terms of Valderrama, held the lead during the final round in 2004, eventually finishing 4th, just outside the playoff between Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia. It was still his highest finish on the European Tour at the time and as a player who always ranks highly in the greens in regulation stats (currently 6th on Tour; the same as last year), Valderrama is a course that suits. He has shown good form recently with finishes of 10th and 3rd in his last two events, so odds of 40/1 had not been expected.
