Volvo Masters

[Ian]

After the anticlimax of a huge 3% profit on Chris Smith we move on.
Best bet of the week and for quite a while is Cejka - had a break since his win in the Lancome he returns to the scene of his greatest triumph in 95 - was going to back him at 40/1 but snapped up the 60/1 at Betfair and had as decent sized bet as possible at Bet365 who go 50/1.

 

[Ian]

Even better - Centrebet go 66/1 Cejka!

 

[steved]

1 ew A Hansen..50/1 (Sportingbet)
no course form, but playing very well, likes Volvo tournaments as well...same reasons as last week, but seems focused now and dropping five shots in three holes in 2nd round, and then getting two of them back before the round was over, is the sign of someone on a mission...VC only going 28/1, and they are normally keen to be top price...

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to win 16/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Tremendous record on this course - he has never finished outside top-30 in nine visits since 1990 and won this event in 1993. His best days on this course, like his game in general, is behind him now, but his performances since the Ryder Cup have been very impressive, as was his form for four weeks in May, and a return to the scene of the 1997 Ryder Cup can only help Monty. Did consider the much bigger odds (40/1) on Lawrie instead, but who knows how he will react to his final hole self-destruct last week? Monty and Valderrama: every chance that he will break his 2002 duck this week.

Adam Scott to win 25/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, UKBetting and Heathorns
Has not played this course, but should be well-suited as his all-round game is good, he is not just a big-hitter - he ranks 4th in the all-round category. Plus, he comes into the event in great form, having finished a close 2nd to Steen Tinning in the Madrid Open two weeks ago. That makes two starts in Spain and two top-3 finishes. Typically finishes strong in the end of the season and is very capable of winning this event and finishing in the top-5 in the Volvo Order of Merit.

Angel Cabrera to win 28/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet and Paddy Power
Hard to ignore a player who has finished 3rd and 6th in his last two starts and has finished in the top-25 in his last seven starts in Spain, including twice at the WGC-American Express Championship at Valderrama. Doesn't win enough in this company, but his putting has improved considerably this year and if he can keep it on the fairway, he should go close yet again.

 

[steved]

1 ew Monty (UKBetting)...
echo Stanleys thoughts plus can add strange radio interview last week on Radio 5...Monty has just published his (auto)biography and he was saying it was the first time in his life he felt he had succeeded at something...he was asked what about 7 consecutive Euro orders of merit, and he said they just made him strive for more...he never felt he had got anywhere...no wonder he looks fed up sometimes!! maybe now he is at peace he will win by 10 shots and retire or go on to win all four majors next year...or be completely useless...I hope the former...

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Any of you mates think Westwoods form is returning?
We got new site design for 365 over here today. Pretty neat!

 

[milpalm]

Scott 25/1 Chandler. Two top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 events and is good enough to win this thing.

Cejka 50/1 Bet365. Missed the 66/1 as Centrebet priced up earlier than they use to. Cejka must have a decent chance on a course where he's won before.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Thomas Bjorn -137 @ BlueSq
Opposing Bjorn missed the cut in his last outing and has a poor record at Valderrama. In three previous visits he has finished over-par on every occasion. With a 12-3-0 record against Bjorn in the past year, this should be a straightforward win for Monty.

Angel Cabrera to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Sporting Odds and Sportingbet
Siding with another of the outright selections as a high finish is expected. Never sure with Poulter and given that he has yet to play the course and is coming off a wire-to-wire win, this could be a let-down week.

Sergio Garcia to beat Retief Goosen -110 @ Sporting Odds and Sportingbet
Goosen has a surprisingly poor record on this course. In five previous visits, he has finished 10th, 52nd, 51st, 25th and 35th while they have all been limited-field events and he has broken par in only five of twenty rounds here. With the added pressure of competing with Padraig Harrington for the Volvo Order of Merit title - they are even paired together in the 1st round - this could be a testing week for the South African. Expecting a much better performance from Garcia who was testing new clubs last week, has finished 7th and 5th on his previous two visits to Valderrama and won the Spanish Open earlier this year.

Paul McGinley to beat Carl Pettersson -120 @ Carib
Not really expecting a great week from McGinley and he has never played well on this course, just opposing Pettersson. The big Swede has never played this course and has finished 73rd, 54th (of 65), missed cut and missed cut in his last four events. Even McGinley with his Ryder Cup hangover has played better than that.

Eduardo Romero to beat Justin Rose -105 @ Five Dimes
Has never played on this course before, missed the cut last week when opposed and has been playing poorly since his father died. Rose remains a player to oppose until the end of the season and while Romero is unlikely to make it three top-10 finishes in ten visits to Valderrama, he should be consistent enough to beat the wilting Rose.


DTB, not for me. His form is only returning very slowly and his confidence is still very fragile IMO. Has featured on leaderboards in recent weeks, but not on the final day.

 

[lostinamerica]

Cejka(40/1) for 0.15* e.w. @ Bet365
Bet this on Tuesday and forgot to post it. I hadn't and still haven't looked at anything, so I just tagged along with Ian on his angle that "Best bet of the week and for quite a while is Cejka."

Cheers - I hope I have a reason to stay interested.

GL

 

[bettingmad]

Steen Tinning seems a bit big at 40/1 with the Tote considering he is currently in 3rd place (as low as 16/1 with Hills).
Although he missed the cut last week in the rain soddened Italian, the time before he won in Spain and before that was 5th in the Lancome.

Same applies to another recent winner Alex Cejka 25/1 with bet365. Who is also a course winner. But for one bad hole (7 on 4th) he would be 2nd fav.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2; +1.05 units

Montgomerie/Bjorn WON by 12
Cabrera/Poulter WON by 7
Garcia/Goosen WON by 9
McGinley/Pettersson LOST by 8
Romero/Rose LOST by 5

Outrights: 2-1; +12.00 units

Montgomerie 1st (shared with Langer)
Scott 7th
Cabrera 4th

Controversial end to the 2002 European Tour season and at the end, thankful that Monty was cleared of moving the ball when addressing the ball on the 10th green and that the title was shared after darkness forced the playoff to be curtailed after two holes. I thought he moved the ball, but not complaining now! Could have been even better though - Cabrera had a seven-shot lead at one stage and had the winds not blown on the last three days, his lead would surely have been insurmountable. Still, controversy aside, a profitable end to another profitable European Tour season.

European Tour ytd
Matchups: 65-43; +25.16 units
Outrights: 16-56; +59.29 units

All Tour ytd
Matchups: 228-196; +3.58 units
Outrights: 82-291; +174.89 units

 

[snakeeyes]

How will the outright bets on Montgomerie and Langer be graded?Both winners or a reduced payoff? I bet Montgomerie at 5 dimes but not graded yet? Anyone know?

 

[Clive]

Snakeyes..
assume win part will be paid to half your stake, if you backed him to place that will be unaltered

 

[snakeeyes]

Thanks Clive.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

NICE JOB STAN