“According to an analysis of data from the 2015 MLB season, teams that had won 4 games in a row had a 70% chance of winning their 5th game. However, it's important to note that this is just one season's data and the percentage can vary from year to year.”
W4?
- Thread starter jng
- Start date
“According to an analysis of data from the 2010 MLB season, teams that had won 5 games in a row had a 63.6% chance of winning their 6th game.”
So, if the AI machinery is correct, a W3/L3 “system” defies math because the chance of number 4 is only about 55%. That would barely win at -110 odds. Probably not common for W3 and L3 teams in general.
But at 70 and 64% for win or loss numbers 5 and 6, what would the lines have to be to make each bet a good one? Is the limit -140? -150?
I’d guess that Smitty, Jord, Slum, YYZ, Old School or Kenman could easily compute this. I can’t.
So, if the AI machinery is correct, a W3/L3 “system” defies math because the chance of number 4 is only about 55%. That would barely win at -110 odds. Probably not common for W3 and L3 teams in general.
But at 70 and 64% for win or loss numbers 5 and 6, what would the lines have to be to make each bet a good one? Is the limit -140? -150?
I’d guess that Smitty, Jord, Slum, YYZ, Old School or Kenman could easily compute this. I can’t.
I’m guessing that for longer win and loss streaks the sample size is too small for statistical significance. Or… maybe not.
Yea. I don’t think you can extrapolate to much out of this. If you take the 2015 stats. Hypothetically Over a 100 game sample size the 5 th game hits at 70%. So you would go 70-30. Obv It all depends on the odds for the winning team on the 5 th game. If they are -200. You don’t make much money. 10 bucks. Problem is. If a team is winning that many games in a row, they most likely are favorites. So the juice will eat away at the profits if it’s truly at a 70% clip. Landing now. But something to think about further.
Fly safely, Slum. Commercial this time.
At -200 there’s no money to be made. At -150, there is. And somewhere there has to be a database with this info and more certainty than relying on Chatgpt.
At -200 there’s no money to be made. At -150, there is. And somewhere there has to be a database with this info and more certainty than relying on Chatgpt.
Notable numbers:
Losing Streaks
• Play ON MLB road teams having lost their L4 games when playing as underdogs in the 100 to 155 line range (208-225, 48% win pct, 35.65 units, ROI 8.2%)
• Play AGAINST MLB home teams having lost their L5 games when playing as favorites of -160 or more (these teams are 29-23, 55.7% win pct, -16.75 units, ROI -32.2%)
• Play ON MLB home teams having lost their L6 games when playing as favorites in the -110 to -190 line range (58-38, 60.4% win pct, 7.7 units, ROI 8.0%)
• Play ON MLB road teams having lost their L6 games OR MORE when playing as favorites (33- 18, 64.7% win pct, 15.2 units, ROI 29.8%) or when playing as small underdogs in the 100 to 140 line range (66-51, 56.4% win pct, 29 units, ROI 24.8%)
• Play ON MLB home teams having lost their L7 games or more when playing as underdogs (51-54, 48.6% win pct, 15.0 units, ROI 14.3%)
Winning Streaks
• -Play ON MLB home teams having won their L3 games or more when playing as favorites of -285 or higher (28-4, 87.5% win pct, 15.1 units, ROI 47.2%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L3 games when playing as small favorites in the -110 to -150 line range (these teams are 340-322, 51.3% win pct, -73.85 units, ROI -11.1%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L4 games or more when playing as favorites in the -110 to -250 line range (these teams are 329-276, 54.4% win pct, -89.3 units, ROI -14.8%)
• - Play ON MLB road teams having won their L5 games or more when playing as favorites of -125 or higher (105-43, 71% win pct, 39.95 units, ROI 27%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L8 games or more when playing as big favorites in the -200 or higher range (these teams are 9-10, 47.4% win pct, -13.5 units, ROI -71.1%)
HOME AND AWAY
Losing Streaks
• - Play ON MLB home teams having lost their L4 games at home (152-122, 55.5% win pct, 24.25 units, ROI 8.8%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having lost their L3 games on the road (these teams are 140-166, 45.8% win pct, -52.95 units, ROI -17.3%)
Winning Streaks
• - Play ON MLB road teams having won their L5 games all on the road (67-51, 56.8% win pct, 14.55 units, ROI 12.3%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L4 games all on the road (these teams are 42-35, 54.5% win pct, -9.6 units, ROI -12.5%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L5 games all at home (these teams are 71-78, 47.7% win pct, -41.3 units, ROI -27.7%)
Losing Streaks
• Play ON MLB road teams having lost their L4 games when playing as underdogs in the 100 to 155 line range (208-225, 48% win pct, 35.65 units, ROI 8.2%)
• Play AGAINST MLB home teams having lost their L5 games when playing as favorites of -160 or more (these teams are 29-23, 55.7% win pct, -16.75 units, ROI -32.2%)
• Play ON MLB home teams having lost their L6 games when playing as favorites in the -110 to -190 line range (58-38, 60.4% win pct, 7.7 units, ROI 8.0%)
• Play ON MLB road teams having lost their L6 games OR MORE when playing as favorites (33- 18, 64.7% win pct, 15.2 units, ROI 29.8%) or when playing as small underdogs in the 100 to 140 line range (66-51, 56.4% win pct, 29 units, ROI 24.8%)
• Play ON MLB home teams having lost their L7 games or more when playing as underdogs (51-54, 48.6% win pct, 15.0 units, ROI 14.3%)
Winning Streaks
• -Play ON MLB home teams having won their L3 games or more when playing as favorites of -285 or higher (28-4, 87.5% win pct, 15.1 units, ROI 47.2%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L3 games when playing as small favorites in the -110 to -150 line range (these teams are 340-322, 51.3% win pct, -73.85 units, ROI -11.1%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L4 games or more when playing as favorites in the -110 to -250 line range (these teams are 329-276, 54.4% win pct, -89.3 units, ROI -14.8%)
• - Play ON MLB road teams having won their L5 games or more when playing as favorites of -125 or higher (105-43, 71% win pct, 39.95 units, ROI 27%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L8 games or more when playing as big favorites in the -200 or higher range (these teams are 9-10, 47.4% win pct, -13.5 units, ROI -71.1%)
HOME AND AWAY
Losing Streaks
• - Play ON MLB home teams having lost their L4 games at home (152-122, 55.5% win pct, 24.25 units, ROI 8.8%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having lost their L3 games on the road (these teams are 140-166, 45.8% win pct, -52.95 units, ROI -17.3%)
Winning Streaks
• - Play ON MLB road teams having won their L5 games all on the road (67-51, 56.8% win pct, 14.55 units, ROI 12.3%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L4 games all on the road (these teams are 42-35, 54.5% win pct, -9.6 units, ROI -12.5%)
• - Play AGAINST MLB home teams having won their L5 games all at home (these teams are 71-78, 47.7% win pct, -41.3 units, ROI -27.7%)
I don't know what to tell you. The numbers look nice, but they don't factor in anything other than the streak.
Plus, you need to win two or more during the streak, to get ahead of the eventual loss, and show a profit.
The Brewers hadn't lost two in a row all season. So, I blindly bet them to win after the last loss. Well, they lost. Many guys were on them last night, trying to break the two game losing streak. They lost again.
If I had to bet on the game tonight, I would take the plus money, even though it's only a two game losing streak. Detroit has a little streak of their own. They have not swapped horses all season. They either have a winning streak, or a losing streak. They haven't gone WLW, or LWL all season. Since they broke a losing streak yesterday, we'll see if they win again.
:0003
Plus, you need to win two or more during the streak, to get ahead of the eventual loss, and show a profit.
The Brewers hadn't lost two in a row all season. So, I blindly bet them to win after the last loss. Well, they lost. Many guys were on them last night, trying to break the two game losing streak. They lost again.
If I had to bet on the game tonight, I would take the plus money, even though it's only a two game losing streak. Detroit has a little streak of their own. They have not swapped horses all season. They either have a winning streak, or a losing streak. They haven't gone WLW, or LWL all season. Since they broke a losing streak yesterday, we'll see if they win again.
:0003
