wake forest vs. baylor...wtf?

itsdaroc8

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need a little help here guys. i ve seen this game at the range of wake -1.5 - 4.5..

mind you i understand baylor returning 18 starters but its from a 4 win team

wake is returning 13 starters (incl. riley skinner ) from a team that whipped these same baylor boys by 4 touchdowns in last years season opener. it was a 12 pt spread last year that wake easily covered. so my question is wut gives with the new respect 4 baylor??
 

IE

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Wake Forest game vital to Baylor football's bowl hopes

Thursday, August 06, 2009





Thirty days from now, Baylor will kick off its football season at Wake Forest.

The game won?t draw the attention of some other marquee season-opening matchups like Oklahoma State hosting Georgia or even BYU against Oklahoma at the new Cowboys Stadium.

But for the Bears, it will be huge.
Coach Art Briles hopes to lead Baylor to its first bowl game since the 1994 Alamo Bowl. The Bears open preseason drills this afternoon. (Rod Aydelotte photo, file)

Heading into the opening of preseason drills today, the Bears? biggest goal is to reach a bowl game. That?s been the Bears? priority every year since their last bowl appearance ? the 1994 Alamo Bowl ? but it seems much more realistic this fall with talents like quarterback Robert Griffin and all-Big 12 linebacker Joe Pawelek and safety Jordan Lake on board.

If the Bears beat the Demon Deacons on Sept. 5, they?ve got a great chance to go 4-0 in nonconference play. That would mean they?d need just two more wins in Big 12 play to become bowl eligible.

Bowl eligible are the two magic words around Baylor.

?It?s vital, it?s critical,? Baylor coach Art Briles said of the Wake Forest game. ?But I would have said the same thing last season ? playing well, setting the tone.?

The Bears recovered quite well from their 41-13 season-opening shellacking against Wake Forest at Floyd Casey Stadium. They bounced back with consecutive blowouts of Northwestern State and Washington State, and could have become bowl eligible if they had made a big play or two in tight losses to Connecticut, Missouri and Texas Tech.

But while Baylor went into last year hoping ? praying ? for a bowl berth, you get the idea they really sense they can pull it off this year. Playing so competitively in most games last year boosted their confidence. But they?re also confident because they bring back nine starters on each side of the ball and feature leaders like Griffin, Pawelek and Lake.

Wake a big early test

They want to set the tone against Wake Forest, a program that?s risen from the gutter to make three straight bowl games under ninth-year coach Jim Grobe. Last year, the Demon Deacons pounded the Bears from the start and didn?t let up to ruin Briles? debut.

Wake Forest will put another good team on the field, but has to replace four defensive players who were picked in the first four rounds of April?s NFL draft.

Among those players were linebacker Aaron Curry, the fourth overall pick by the Seattle Seahawks who was taken two slots behind Baylor offensive tackle Jason Smith.

Regardless of their defensive losses, it will still be tough for Baylor to go on the road and beat a team that has a veteran quarterback like Riley Skinner, who has started 37 games for the Demon Deacons and has a career completion percentage of 67.3. Last year, he carved up the Bears, hitting 27 of 36 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns.

But Grobe can?t be relishing the thought of trying to contain Griffin, who replaced starter Kirby Freeman in the second quarter against Wake Forest and sparkled the rest of the season.
 

kegray1

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I know this Baylor team fairly well.

First thought is this the line is clearly lower than expected. My guess was 7.5-9.5 and my lean was BU.

BU was a much different team after Griffin got the full time load. In the Wake game, they were already in a hole when he got his chance in first game as a frosh.
It was 17-0 when he got in that game and he fumbled twice and the RB fumbled in the 2ndH as well. BU was a 4 win team but had chances to win @Uconn and @TT had a 28-14 lead in Lubbock before losing 35-28.

BU expects better this season but I still think on the road @WF should be over a TD spread.
 

StuckinNJ

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... so my question is wut gives with the new respect 4 baylor??

I think it is based on the 2 things:

Defenses
Baylors is very experienced with 172 starts by this year's starters and lead by Phil Taylor. WtF's has only 80 starts, including 3, count 'em, 3 by the linebackers (and only 26 by the DBs). These numbers come from Phil Steele's website, so I assume they are correct.

History
Baylor is 4-1 against WtF alltime and the loss, last year's blowout, is explained/excused a little by it being Briles first game at Baylor AND 21 of those points came from turnovers. Take away those 21 points and say, for fun, that Baylor would have actually scored on one of the 5 possessions that it turned the ball over on and its an O/T game at 20-20.

I'm not picking sides here, just trying to come up with at least some of the reasoning behind a lower spread than expected.
 
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#cruncher

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Tend to agree here. I was on the wrong side of this one last year. The very fact that Wake was around a 13pt fav in Waco last year...and are less than a touchdown at home this year...should/could be a red flag. Wake lost a ton of defense and Baylor's should be better, and both offenses are good. Would have to go with the Bears & maybe Over if forced to make a play...and probably will...Damn its good to be talking football...:0corn
 
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