Wales Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Darren Clarke to beat Rhys Davies +105 @ Unibet [also available @ Extrabet]
Backing Clarke in the first round. He has opened with rounds of 65 and 66 in his last two events and has been under-par in his last five opening rounds, so the early-event form was already evident before he won the Iberdrola Open last month. Davies has the difficult task of trying to be the first-ever home winner of the Wales Open, but history shows that he tends not to start as quickly as Clarke: he has shot the lower 1st round score than the Ulsterman just once this year.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Johan Edfors(50/1) e.w.
Thorbjorn Olesen(600/1 Win & 60/1 Top 5) e.w.
Michael Campbell(525/1 Win & 75/1 Top 5) e.w.
Jamie Donaldson(33/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Alexander Noren @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James]
Opposing Noren who holds the 36-hole lead on his own. He has been in this position five times previously and never shot better than 71 in the next round (averaging 73.4). Home player Donaldson will be playing in the group beforehand and will have the crowd on his side, which will only add to Noren's pressure - he is partnered by defending champion, Graeme McDowell. Donaldson is only two shots behind Noren and has good momentum having eagled the last hole. He also has a good history in this event with four top-15 finishes in eight attempts and has been in great form - he hasn't missed a cut since October. Donaldson looks set to be at least the leading home player.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Webster tb Dubuisson +105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Simon Dyson to beat Rhys Davies -120 @ Bet365
Surprised that Dyson isn't higher than his current 33rd place on the leaderboard - he has finished in the top-5 in both of his last two events and in the top-20 in both of the last two years here. However, he should still improve his position tomorrow - each of his last six final round scores have been in the 60s, he is a perfect 6-0 h2h against Davies in the final round this year and 11-2 h2h over the last 12 months.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Storm tb Sjoholm -130; Cevaer tb Finch -105; Lara tb Van Zyl -110; Watten tb Floren -105; Finch tb Floren -110; McGrane tb Whiteford -110]