Wales Open
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
What price the Steen/Iben double this week - 5000/1+
I'm not one for doubles, over to you bmad!
If Miles Tunnicliffe can win then so can this!
I'm not one for doubles, over to you bmad!
If Miles Tunnicliffe can win then so can this!
Lawrie 25/1 Sportingodds. 2nd last year and seems to be in good form.
Donaldson 66/1 Betinternet. Local player who was 4th last year. Has struggled a bit this year but showed signs of improvement in Sweden last week.
Donaldson 66/1 Betinternet. Local player who was 4th last year. Has struggled a bit this year but showed signs of improvement in Sweden last week.
Adding Fredrik Jacobson at 80/1 (Chandler). Has struggled a bit since he folded in the Scottish Open but returns this week to a course where he was 3rd in 2000. Jacobson has perfected the art of finishing 2nd so a place finish should not be beyond him.
BTW, it seems like Casey has withdrawn.
BTW, it seems like Casey has withdrawn.
Lawrie struggled last week in Aberdeen in winning his own tournament against poor opposition.
I will stick with Immelman [33s] who blew it for me last week [80s]
, and maybe even McDowell is worth a look - his confidence will be high.
I will stick with Immelman [33s] who blew it for me last week [80s]
, and maybe even McDowell is worth a look - his confidence will be high.Ian Poulter 33/1 Paddy Power
A player I feel who owes me money recently. Will give him another chance this week as he was going quite well when this event was shortened last year. Ignoring last weeks unimpressive play he could be fancied on his earlier 6th and 2nd
A player I feel who owes me money recently. Will give him another chance this week as he was going quite well when this event was shortened last year. Ignoring last weeks unimpressive play he could be fancied on his earlier 6th and 2nd
Outright plays (1.5 units):
Philip Price to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Virtually an automatic pick and thankful for Darren Clarke's entry to ensure a larger price than in the past two years. Clarke has shown that he is not a player to back when expected to win. Price is an honorary member of this course and lives just a stone's throw away. He has an excellent record in this event, having yet to shoot a round over-par on this course, and this is one event he would dearly love to win.
Barry Lane to win 47/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5)
The next two are form players and there is no better example of this than Barry Lane. He has been very consistent since finishing 2nd in the Benson & Hedges International in May, but has too often struggled in the final round. Ignoring the weather-hit Great North Open, he shot been over-par just 4 times in his last 29 Thursday-Saturday rounds, but in the same period has shot 6 of 9 Sunday rounds over-par. Might want to bail out on Saturday night, but he should be in contention at some stage this week.
Joachim Haeggman to win 50/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet or Paddy Power
Haeggman is another form player who does not close events particularly well, but he has been getting himself into position this year. Twice in the last five months, he has been the 1st round leader and secured back-to-back top-10 finishes in Ireland a month ago. In contention last week before falling back on Sunday, he looks too good a player at the moment to be these odds.
Philip Price to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Virtually an automatic pick and thankful for Darren Clarke's entry to ensure a larger price than in the past two years. Clarke has shown that he is not a player to back when expected to win. Price is an honorary member of this course and lives just a stone's throw away. He has an excellent record in this event, having yet to shoot a round over-par on this course, and this is one event he would dearly love to win.
Barry Lane to win 47/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes (.75 units to win & .75 units to finish in top-5)
The next two are form players and there is no better example of this than Barry Lane. He has been very consistent since finishing 2nd in the Benson & Hedges International in May, but has too often struggled in the final round. Ignoring the weather-hit Great North Open, he shot been over-par just 4 times in his last 29 Thursday-Saturday rounds, but in the same period has shot 6 of 9 Sunday rounds over-par. Might want to bail out on Saturday night, but he should be in contention at some stage this week.
Joachim Haeggman to win 50/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet or Paddy Power
Haeggman is another form player who does not close events particularly well, but he has been getting himself into position this year. Twice in the last five months, he has been the 1st round leader and secured back-to-back top-10 finishes in Ireland a month ago. In contention last week before falling back on Sunday, he looks too good a player at the moment to be these odds.
72-Hole Matchups:
72-Hole Matchups:
Lawrie v McGinley 5/6 @ Surrey 3 Units.
Had McGinley to win here last yr but since much has changed. Lawrie has 9 solid tournaments in a row + a win last weekend that should inject a little more confidence in his game. McGinley has been unable to get any rhythm going this yr and expect him to stuggle in his title defense.
Karlsson v Jacobson 10/11 @ Surrey 3 Units.
Opposed both last week and was more concerned about Karlssons good play over the weekend than Freddies. Bar the 2nd place choke, this has been a poor season for Jacobson while Karlsson has proved consistent if unspectacular.
Lane v Baker 8/13
Moseley v Steve Webster 8/13 @ Sportingbet 3 Unit double.
Webster off the back of 5 MCs in a row, 8th place last yr is highly unlikely again based on current form. Baker has a 4 MC streak going and will be odds on to keep it alive this week. Moseley & Lane showing great conisistency all season and return to a venue where they have played well in the past.
72-Hole Matchups:
Lawrie v McGinley 5/6 @ Surrey 3 Units.
Had McGinley to win here last yr but since much has changed. Lawrie has 9 solid tournaments in a row + a win last weekend that should inject a little more confidence in his game. McGinley has been unable to get any rhythm going this yr and expect him to stuggle in his title defense.
Karlsson v Jacobson 10/11 @ Surrey 3 Units.
Opposed both last week and was more concerned about Karlssons good play over the weekend than Freddies. Bar the 2nd place choke, this has been a poor season for Jacobson while Karlsson has proved consistent if unspectacular.
Lane v Baker 8/13
Moseley v Steve Webster 8/13 @ Sportingbet 3 Unit double.
Webster off the back of 5 MCs in a row, 8th place last yr is highly unlikely again based on current form. Baker has a 4 MC streak going and will be odds on to keep it alive this week. Moseley & Lane showing great conisistency all season and return to a venue where they have played well in the past.
Going for 1ew Donaldson 50/1 (Sportingodds)..fourth last year although only a 2 rounder..and he is Welsh..
Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):
Barry Lane to beat Peter Baker -163 @ Sportingbet [4.5 units]
Complete mismatch! Baker has missed his last four cuts and missed the cut last year. No comparison to Lane.
Barry Lane to beat Andrew Coltart -118 @ Easybets
Coltart is not the player who made the Ryder Cup team three years ago. In the past year he has managed just one top-10 finish and his best in the last three months is a faltering 29th when in a good position until the last round of the Great North Open. He also missed the cut last year and won't be able to compete with Lane.
Philip Price to beat Warren Bennett -110 @ Victor Chandler
The early leader last week, Bennett is obviously in decent form, yet he has still to finish in the top-10 all season. A familiar story of poor final rounds if in contention. This will also be his sixth straight event and having played four rounds every time, he should be ready for break very soon. Could feature this week, but don't see him in the mix on Sunday alongside Price.
Philip Price to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposed Poulter profitable last week and see little reason to change strategy this week, particularly against my headline outright selection. This will be Poulter's seventh straight event and that is too many without a break. If he gets a fast start he could win this event, but otherwise he can be counted upon to finish a long way down the leaderboard. Price's 13-2 head-to-head record against Poulter over the last 12 months is also compelling.
Alex Cejka to beat Sven Struver -111 @ BetandWin
Both have been missing cuts recently, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Cejka will perform better this week. Struver did finish 2nd in the Great North Open in June, but his previous top-10 finish had been in April 2001 when he also finished 2nd in the Portuguese Open. Cejka, for his part, had a spell on the Buy.com Tour earlier this year and has been playing in the bigger events than Struver since his return to Europe where he finished 6th in the Irish Open. This course should also suit Cejka's game for more. It is the scene of the 2009 Ryder Cup and demands good play from tee to green. Cejka ranks 17th in greens in regulation; Struver ranks 147th.
Barry Lane to beat Peter Baker -163 @ Sportingbet [4.5 units]
Complete mismatch! Baker has missed his last four cuts and missed the cut last year. No comparison to Lane.
Barry Lane to beat Andrew Coltart -118 @ Easybets
Coltart is not the player who made the Ryder Cup team three years ago. In the past year he has managed just one top-10 finish and his best in the last three months is a faltering 29th when in a good position until the last round of the Great North Open. He also missed the cut last year and won't be able to compete with Lane.
Philip Price to beat Warren Bennett -110 @ Victor Chandler
The early leader last week, Bennett is obviously in decent form, yet he has still to finish in the top-10 all season. A familiar story of poor final rounds if in contention. This will also be his sixth straight event and having played four rounds every time, he should be ready for break very soon. Could feature this week, but don't see him in the mix on Sunday alongside Price.
Philip Price to beat Ian Poulter -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposed Poulter profitable last week and see little reason to change strategy this week, particularly against my headline outright selection. This will be Poulter's seventh straight event and that is too many without a break. If he gets a fast start he could win this event, but otherwise he can be counted upon to finish a long way down the leaderboard. Price's 13-2 head-to-head record against Poulter over the last 12 months is also compelling.
Alex Cejka to beat Sven Struver -111 @ BetandWin
Both have been missing cuts recently, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that Cejka will perform better this week. Struver did finish 2nd in the Great North Open in June, but his previous top-10 finish had been in April 2001 when he also finished 2nd in the Portuguese Open. Cejka, for his part, had a spell on the Buy.com Tour earlier this year and has been playing in the bigger events than Struver since his return to Europe where he finished 6th in the Irish Open. This course should also suit Cejka's game for more. It is the scene of the 2009 Ryder Cup and demands good play from tee to green. Cejka ranks 17th in greens in regulation; Struver ranks 147th.
Adding:
Adding:
Pilkington v Steve Webster 9/10 @ B&W 3 Units.
2 players going in different directions. A solid 4th place last yr as well for Pilkington makes him a strong choice over Webster, who I believe will be battling to make the cut this week.
Price v Poulter 9/10 @ Ladbrokes 3 Units.
Cejka v Struver 9/10 @ B&W 3 Units.
I like your rationale for the plays Stanley. Cheers.
Adding:
Pilkington v Steve Webster 9/10 @ B&W 3 Units.
2 players going in different directions. A solid 4th place last yr as well for Pilkington makes him a strong choice over Webster, who I believe will be battling to make the cut this week.
Price v Poulter 9/10 @ Ladbrokes 3 Units.
Cejka v Struver 9/10 @ B&W 3 Units.
I like your rationale for the plays Stanley. Cheers.
Mid-point update:
Lane/Baker WON by 5
Lane/Coltart WON by 8
Price/Bennett WON by 2
Price/Poulter Trails by 3
Cejka/Struver LOST by 14
Price 65th
Lane 18th
Haeggman 42nd
I hate rain-affected tournaments. Should be lucky enough to come out even on the tournament after a good performance on the matchups, but it is rather a lottery this way. Maybe Lane can put two good rounds together on Sunday to make the top-5 place? Or maybe I can remember why I passed over Paul Lawrie @ 20/1 when he was 2nd in my ratings for this tournament, ahead of Price?
Lane/Baker WON by 5
Lane/Coltart WON by 8
Price/Bennett WON by 2
Price/Poulter Trails by 3
Cejka/Struver LOST by 14
Price 65th
Lane 18th
Haeggman 42nd
I hate rain-affected tournaments. Should be lucky enough to come out even on the tournament after a good performance on the matchups, but it is rather a lottery this way. Maybe Lane can put two good rounds together on Sunday to make the top-5 place? Or maybe I can remember why I passed over Paul Lawrie @ 20/1 when he was 2nd in my ratings for this tournament, ahead of Price?
Final Summary:
Final Summary:
Lawrie beats McGinley by 8
Karlsson beats Jacobson by 3
Lane beats Baker by 5 (at Cut)
Moseley beats Steve Webster by 4 (double)
Pilkington loses to Steve Webster by 9
Price loses to Poulter by 13
Cejka loses to Struver by 14 (at Cut)
p/l for week (3-3) +1.06 Units
Matchups Ytd: (28-20-1) +31.02 Units
Outrights Ytd: +10.37 Units
Total P/L YTD: +41.39 Units.
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I did a good job picking your only 2 losing match bets Stanley
Final Summary:
Lawrie beats McGinley by 8
Karlsson beats Jacobson by 3
Lane beats Baker by 5 (at Cut)
Moseley beats Steve Webster by 4 (double)
Pilkington loses to Steve Webster by 9
Price loses to Poulter by 13
Cejka loses to Struver by 14 (at Cut)
p/l for week (3-3) +1.06 Units
Matchups Ytd: (28-20-1) +31.02 Units
Outrights Ytd: +10.37 Units
Total P/L YTD: +41.39 Units.
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I did a good job picking your only 2 losing match bets Stanley
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Nice 25/1 tip Milpalm
What a poxy tournament....
2 rds last year a mixed up mess this year....
My man Poulter misses a place by a single shot for the 2nd time in recent weeks...
I laid some "mug" ?100 at 16/1 on Lawrie at betfair on Wednesday evening...(xodale said he was struggling... good job he was struggling or else he might have lapped them!!!).
What a poxy tournament....
2 rds last year a mixed up mess this year....
My man Poulter misses a place by a single shot for the 2nd time in recent weeks...
I laid some "mug" ?100 at 16/1 on Lawrie at betfair on Wednesday evening...(xodale said he was struggling... good job he was struggling or else he might have lapped them!!!).
Monarch,
My Lawrie story was a bit tongue in cheek and not as bad as it looked.
Although I laid Lawrie to take out ?1600 it was only because I knew he was 20/1 in 4 places including Coral who had surprisingly pushed him out from 18/1 despite the Racing Post tip. So having laid ?100 at betfair it gave me ?95 after commission...
so I had 2 choices...
lay ?80 at 20/1 to cover the bet and make a guaranteed ?15 whether he won or lost
or lay ?95 at 20/1 and make ?300 should he win....
unfortunately as I had read the Aberdeen event was weather delayed I thought it might have inconvenienced him a bit so I just took the ?15.... missed opportunity!
My Lawrie story was a bit tongue in cheek and not as bad as it looked.
Although I laid Lawrie to take out ?1600 it was only because I knew he was 20/1 in 4 places including Coral who had surprisingly pushed him out from 18/1 despite the Racing Post tip. So having laid ?100 at betfair it gave me ?95 after commission...
so I had 2 choices...
lay ?80 at 20/1 to cover the bet and make a guaranteed ?15 whether he won or lost
or lay ?95 at 20/1 and make ?300 should he win....
unfortunately as I had read the Aberdeen event was weather delayed I thought it might have inconvenienced him a bit so I just took the ?15.... missed opportunity!
I think u and Statto have got Betfair figured out. My friends often enquire what it is and how it works and I always end up confusing them. I was pretty sure u'd have a profit locked in somewhere.
Final update:
Matchups: 3-2; +4.17 units
Price/Poulter LOST by 13
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Price 66th
Lane 24th
Haeggman 24th
Break-even event as the outrights were never really in contention. Still can't remember why I didn't pick Paul Lawrie!
European Tour ytd
Matchups: 29-25; +3.04 units
Outrights: 7-35; +12.80 units
Matchups: 3-2; +4.17 units
Price/Poulter LOST by 13
Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units
Price 66th
Lane 24th
Haeggman 24th
Break-even event as the outrights were never really in contention. Still can't remember why I didn't pick Paul Lawrie!
European Tour ytd
Matchups: 29-25; +3.04 units
Outrights: 7-35; +12.80 units
