Wales Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Stephen Gallacher -105 @ Bet365
Gallacher is playing the best golf of his career at the moment, but only a week away from the Ryder Cup in his home country (and he was a wildcard pick) and on the day in Scotland has a referendum on independence, there are plenty of off-course distractions for the Scot. Together with a very poor record on this course, with the exception of one year (2010), he looks one to oppose tomorrow at least.

Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Tyrell Hatton -110 @ 5Dimes
Hatton has played well in the last two events, finishing 11th and 3rd, but he is making his debut on this course and Olesen has been the better player over the longer-term. He also finished in the top-20 two years ago and looks the more likely to reach that mark again this year.

Mark Foster to beat John Hahn -120 @ 5Dimes
Opposing another player making his debut on this course, but Hahn cannot match Hatton's form - his last top-20 finish was over five months ago. Foster has been a regular in this event which has been held at this course since 2008 - in those six previous Wales Opens here, Foster has made the cut every time. Foster has dominated this matchup in the h2h stats, so I would make him a much stronger favourite than this.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Jacquelin tb Broberg -110]

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Kristoffer Broberg +118 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Stan James]
A better day for Broberg after he had missed the cut in each of the last two weeks, but it is not just recent form that favours Jacquelin, he has a 8-5-0 h2h record against Broberg over the last six months. That suggests that he shouldn't normally be a large underdog in this matchup, so presumably this is because he is in 125th place after rd1. However, he has a good record on this course with three top-20 finishes in the six years here and in the three occasions that he has been outside the top-100 after rd1 since July, he always finished rd2 in a higher leaderboard position than at the start of the day.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Paul Casey to beat Thomas Bjorn -150 @ Paddy Power
Casey has been in great form recently. Not only did he win the KLM Open, but he had finished in the top-25 in the previous two events in the PGA Tour Playoffs. I'll back him to finish ahead of Bjorn who has finished 40th and mc since the Ryder Cup team was announced and cannot ignore the distraction of next week's event.

Paul Casey to beat Thomas Pieters -175 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle
Big difference in class between these two as shown by their respective World Rankings and the fact that Casey is 5-0-0 h2h against Pieters in 2014. Short odds, but Casey should kick on from this position.

Paul Casey to beat Romain Wattel -110 @ Stan James
Wattel has been in much better form than Pieters so the odds are much shorter in this matchup, but with no event for Casey next week, this is an opportunity to confirm last week's performance and, like Billy Horschel, show that next week's Ryder Cup teams can be absent from some of the most in-form players on either side.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Bjorn tb Storm -159]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Romain Wattel to beat Eddie Pepperell -115 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
With finishes of 11th, 9th and 5th in the last three weeks, Wattel has the form to build upon his current 6th place position, but it is not just a matter of recent form - in their last 20 common events, Wattel leads Pepperell 13-5-2 and already has two top-15 finishes on this course in the last three years. On the basis, he should be a stronger favourite tomorrow.

Seve Benson to beat Robert Rock -105 @ Bet365
A matchup with exactly the same h2h stats over the last 20 common events - Benson leads Rock 13-5-2. He has played on this course once in the last three years, but he also secured a top-15 finish here, so there is good reason to expect that this matchup should follow a similar pattern to the previous one.

Romain Wattel to beat Marc Warren -120 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365]
Different angles in this matchup as the h2h stats are equal over the last 20 common events, though Wattel has finished ahead of the Scot in each of the last three weeks. That form should be enough to see the Frenchman as a serious challenge tomorrow even though he is six shots behind Joost Luiten - he has, for example, led the entire field in greens in regulation in two of the three rounds, so his ball-striking is as good as it has ever been and that will be crucial in the pressure of final round contention.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Olesen tb Fisher O -105; Molinari E tb Jaidee -111]

 

[Phishhead]

Apologize for jumping in the thread, but Stanley will you be doing ryder cup?

 

[Stanley]

Yes, but those events are always better to watch than to wager on IMO