Australia v NZ Maori, Sydney Football Stadium
Australia -12.5
Plenty of value here in playing the hosts despite some of the ridiculous pre-match talk. As a journalist, I'm used to being fed pathetic pre-match lines about "we won't be underestimating our opponents" and "we're only looking one game ahead" etc etc. But Toutai Kefu's nonsense about the Maori side probably being stronger than the All Blacks reaches new lows. It takes trying to play the underdog card to new and preposterous depths and the quicker journos write such comments with accompanying ridicule the better. Sorry, enough ranting...
Sure, the visitors will prove stiff opposition for the Wallabies. But the Wallabies will win, and by a comfortable margin. This isn't some island nation struggling for 15 top-class players or a Northern Hemisphere B squad - these are the world champions who are primed to take on the might of the Lions shortly and possessing a host of players on a high after the ACT Brumbies' marvellously successful Super 12 campaign.
The Maori have taken a calculated risk in putting the talented Carlos Spencer at fullback and while he is a gifted player, a strong defender and a potentially lethal attacker, his positional play will be sorely tested by Chris Latham, Stephen Larkham and George Gregan. First-five Glen Jackson is a patchy, confidence player who will also be targeted by the Wallabies, as will the defensive qualities of winger Roger Randle.
I like the inclusion of Queensland Reds first-five Elton Flatley as second five for tomorrow night's game. Nathan Grey is a limited attacking player and Flatley's guile should add to the potential of the classy Aussie backline. He should also cope well enough defensively with neither Daryl Gibson or Caleb Ralph hulking opponents - but watch the All Blacks run Jonah Lomu at him off the blindside wing if he's still there when they meet
Australia's main worry is probably over the propping situation, where they lack some depth and star quality. But Deacon Manu is still in his first season of international rugby and Greg Feek hasn't made too many Super 12 scrums crumble this year, so the home team shouldn't lose anything from Glen Panoho and Nick Stiles.
Expect the Wallabies to win 95% of their lineout ball thru Giffin and Eales while there are definite worries over the throwing ability of Norm Hewitt for the Maori, despite them possessing the tall timber of Norm Maxwell, Mark Cooksley and Troy Flavell.
Another key advantage for the hosts will be flanker George Smith. The undoubted star of the Super 12 comp is a pure openside flier who will snaffle a host of turnovers and has a decided footspeed advantage over his opposite - former All Black Taine Randell, who has many qualities but is not a natural No 7.
This game could be tight for as much as 60/65 minutes. But the overwhelming superiority of the Australians will win out. Considering you could get the Brumbies -10.5 for the Super 12 final and this is the Brumbies-made-better v a composite side short on practice, I recommend you to ...
PLAY AUSTRALIA -12.5
GLTA
