Washington -1.5 at UCLA
total 46.5
Take the WASH -1.5 and the UNDER 46.5
I see Washington winning this by about 20-16. Here's the way it breaks down...
Fundamentals:
UCLA's defense is very good. Their offense is lack luster.
The ?D? leads the Pac-10 and ranks 14th in the NCAA in total defense (278.0 yards) and ranks second in pass defense (181.5 yards, with 7 ints in last 3 games). It also ranks 24th nationally in rushing defense (96.5 yards). UCLA is the only Pac-10 team allowing less than 10 yards per completions (8.75).The Bruin defense has allowed just seven touchdowns in four games (four rushing and three passing) and four of those were against the nation's No. 1 team (Oklahoma). But, UCLA has allowed four non-defensive touchdowns.
Bruin defenders used to give up lots of big plays. No more. Versus Illinois they allowed just two scrimmage plays longer than 16 yards (passes of 27 and 19 yards). Versus Oklahoma, they allowed just four offensive plays of longer than 15 yards. San Diego State had just two plays longer than 13 yards (one run and one pass). But note: They are very stingy until opponents reach the red zone. In the red zone, opponents have converted 8 of 9 visits for 44 points (three runs, two passes, three FGs). The team is +1 in turnover ratio.
Senior DT Rodney Leslie (16 tackles, 2 sacks, a playmaker) will not play the first half of this week's game due to a fourth quarter ejection LW vs. SDSU. However, IMO, his absence will not have too much of an impact.
UCLA?s ?O? is sluggish (16 ppg). They can?t run it, and are inconsistent passing it. RB Tyler Ebell (998 yds rushing LY) is suffering from the sophmore jinx. Receivers have lots of drops, but seemed to make the tough catches LW. With Soph Drew Olson at QB (2d stringer), not much was expected. Olson enjoyed his best day against SDSU LW (18 of 28 for 258 yds and 2 TDs). Olson is slow of foot, sort of short, and is not a playmaker. Don?t look for any kind of offensive explosion, as HC Karl Dorrell has hinted that 1st string QB Matt Moore will return once he gets back into shape (probably can?t wait).
Washington Coach Keith Gilbertson, who had previously served as the head coach at Idaho and California, is in his first season at the helm of the Husky program. The Huskies, who remained No. 18 in the latest Associated Press top-25 poll but moved up to 17th in this week's ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll, haven't played a road game since opening the year at defending national champion Ohio State. Washington has beaten Indiana, Idaho and Stanford, all at home.
They have a solid defense that is allowing only 280.75 yards per game (15th in the NCAA and second in the Pac-10 to UCLA) -- 119.0 on the ground and 161.75 (first in the Pac-10 and 18th nationally) in the air. Their offense is good, but is capable of better, with its triplets Pickett, Alexis and Williams. They average 412.5 yards per game (fourth in the Pac-10), 263.0 in the air and 149.5 on the ground. Last week, Pickett hit Williams on a 74 yd TD strike, and Alexis ran it for 128 yds. Still, they were double digit favs hosting Stanford and led by just 21-17 before getting the cover on an int return with 2:32 left.
Matchups:
When Washington has the ball?
I have only seen the Ohio State game, where Washington could not run the ball very well and Pickett had few plays. They have improved since then, honing their blade against weaker teams. The Bruins ?D? will roll coverage to William?s side, but he is still athletic enough to get open for a few catches. If there is a big play to be made, he will make it. I don?t think Washington will make too many 1st downs on the ground. I like the senior QB leadership from Pickett, and he is smart enough to be patient with the ball. I can see Wash putting up around 16 or 17 points (and no more than 23 or 24--worst case).
When UCLA has the ball?
Washington?s ?D? will crowd the line of scrimmage and force Olson to throw the ball. UCLA Coach Dorrell said, ?I think [opponents] understand we have a young quarterback who is not seasoned and is getting his experience as we go. That plays into the part to where teams try to load the running game to make the quarterback be the player to beat you.? Dorrell has been feeding Olson a little more of the playbook each week. His master plan was to open strong in the first PAC TEN game. That has been scaled way back. Dorrell recognizes the team?s weaknesses, and has kept things conservative in an attempt to limit turnovers (nine so far TY). Olson will flail away, but I don?t see UCLA getting more than 13-16 points (and no more than 20-21--worst case).
Coaches: These staffs know each other well from several past jobs on the same team.
Situational:
Past History?
You might call it revenge (as overrated as I think that concept is). Last year at Husky Stadium, the Bruins parlayed a 24-14 halftime lead into a 34-24 win as a 3 pt dog. Washington has bitter memories of that, as Pickett was picked off with 1:17 and the game on the line. The last time the Huskies visited the Rose Bowl to face UCLA, the Bruins won, 35-13, as tailback DeShaun Foster rushed for 301 yards in a game the Huskies played without injured starting quarterback Cody Pickett. In his four seasons at head coach at California, Gilbertson posted a 3-1 record against UCLA. Gilbertson's Cal teams beat the Bruins in 1992 (48-12 at Berkeley), 1993 (27-25 at Pasadena) and 1994 (26-7 at Berkeley) before falling in 1995 (33-16 at Pasadena). The '92 Cal win was the widest winning margin ever by a Cal team over UCLA.
Technical:
UCLA 5-0-1 vs. Huskies and 5-1 hosting them, but they are just 5-15 in Pac Ten opener and 0-5 at home. Wash is 4-7 on road. Edge to UCLA.
Predicted final:
Wash 20, UCLA 16
total 46.5
Take the WASH -1.5 and the UNDER 46.5
I see Washington winning this by about 20-16. Here's the way it breaks down...
Fundamentals:
UCLA's defense is very good. Their offense is lack luster.
The ?D? leads the Pac-10 and ranks 14th in the NCAA in total defense (278.0 yards) and ranks second in pass defense (181.5 yards, with 7 ints in last 3 games). It also ranks 24th nationally in rushing defense (96.5 yards). UCLA is the only Pac-10 team allowing less than 10 yards per completions (8.75).The Bruin defense has allowed just seven touchdowns in four games (four rushing and three passing) and four of those were against the nation's No. 1 team (Oklahoma). But, UCLA has allowed four non-defensive touchdowns.
Bruin defenders used to give up lots of big plays. No more. Versus Illinois they allowed just two scrimmage plays longer than 16 yards (passes of 27 and 19 yards). Versus Oklahoma, they allowed just four offensive plays of longer than 15 yards. San Diego State had just two plays longer than 13 yards (one run and one pass). But note: They are very stingy until opponents reach the red zone. In the red zone, opponents have converted 8 of 9 visits for 44 points (three runs, two passes, three FGs). The team is +1 in turnover ratio.
Senior DT Rodney Leslie (16 tackles, 2 sacks, a playmaker) will not play the first half of this week's game due to a fourth quarter ejection LW vs. SDSU. However, IMO, his absence will not have too much of an impact.
UCLA?s ?O? is sluggish (16 ppg). They can?t run it, and are inconsistent passing it. RB Tyler Ebell (998 yds rushing LY) is suffering from the sophmore jinx. Receivers have lots of drops, but seemed to make the tough catches LW. With Soph Drew Olson at QB (2d stringer), not much was expected. Olson enjoyed his best day against SDSU LW (18 of 28 for 258 yds and 2 TDs). Olson is slow of foot, sort of short, and is not a playmaker. Don?t look for any kind of offensive explosion, as HC Karl Dorrell has hinted that 1st string QB Matt Moore will return once he gets back into shape (probably can?t wait).
Washington Coach Keith Gilbertson, who had previously served as the head coach at Idaho and California, is in his first season at the helm of the Husky program. The Huskies, who remained No. 18 in the latest Associated Press top-25 poll but moved up to 17th in this week's ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll, haven't played a road game since opening the year at defending national champion Ohio State. Washington has beaten Indiana, Idaho and Stanford, all at home.
They have a solid defense that is allowing only 280.75 yards per game (15th in the NCAA and second in the Pac-10 to UCLA) -- 119.0 on the ground and 161.75 (first in the Pac-10 and 18th nationally) in the air. Their offense is good, but is capable of better, with its triplets Pickett, Alexis and Williams. They average 412.5 yards per game (fourth in the Pac-10), 263.0 in the air and 149.5 on the ground. Last week, Pickett hit Williams on a 74 yd TD strike, and Alexis ran it for 128 yds. Still, they were double digit favs hosting Stanford and led by just 21-17 before getting the cover on an int return with 2:32 left.
Matchups:
When Washington has the ball?
I have only seen the Ohio State game, where Washington could not run the ball very well and Pickett had few plays. They have improved since then, honing their blade against weaker teams. The Bruins ?D? will roll coverage to William?s side, but he is still athletic enough to get open for a few catches. If there is a big play to be made, he will make it. I don?t think Washington will make too many 1st downs on the ground. I like the senior QB leadership from Pickett, and he is smart enough to be patient with the ball. I can see Wash putting up around 16 or 17 points (and no more than 23 or 24--worst case).
When UCLA has the ball?
Washington?s ?D? will crowd the line of scrimmage and force Olson to throw the ball. UCLA Coach Dorrell said, ?I think [opponents] understand we have a young quarterback who is not seasoned and is getting his experience as we go. That plays into the part to where teams try to load the running game to make the quarterback be the player to beat you.? Dorrell has been feeding Olson a little more of the playbook each week. His master plan was to open strong in the first PAC TEN game. That has been scaled way back. Dorrell recognizes the team?s weaknesses, and has kept things conservative in an attempt to limit turnovers (nine so far TY). Olson will flail away, but I don?t see UCLA getting more than 13-16 points (and no more than 20-21--worst case).
Coaches: These staffs know each other well from several past jobs on the same team.
Situational:
Past History?
You might call it revenge (as overrated as I think that concept is). Last year at Husky Stadium, the Bruins parlayed a 24-14 halftime lead into a 34-24 win as a 3 pt dog. Washington has bitter memories of that, as Pickett was picked off with 1:17 and the game on the line. The last time the Huskies visited the Rose Bowl to face UCLA, the Bruins won, 35-13, as tailback DeShaun Foster rushed for 301 yards in a game the Huskies played without injured starting quarterback Cody Pickett. In his four seasons at head coach at California, Gilbertson posted a 3-1 record against UCLA. Gilbertson's Cal teams beat the Bruins in 1992 (48-12 at Berkeley), 1993 (27-25 at Pasadena) and 1994 (26-7 at Berkeley) before falling in 1995 (33-16 at Pasadena). The '92 Cal win was the widest winning margin ever by a Cal team over UCLA.
Technical:
UCLA 5-0-1 vs. Huskies and 5-1 hosting them, but they are just 5-15 in Pac Ten opener and 0-5 at home. Wash is 4-7 on road. Edge to UCLA.
Predicted final:
Wash 20, UCLA 16
