I don't want to write a 1,000 words analysis here, but heck, if you're serious about gambling, and when I mean serious I mean that you see gambling as an investment, not only as a game, then by all means you bet on the Washington Capitals to win the Cup and you bet it NOW.
Anything above 20 to 1 worths it. And I mean it REALLY worths it. Shop and try to get the best line. Some sportsbook allready "woke up" and updated their NHL Futures, for instance Wagerstreet (located in CANADA
) now has Washington 17-1. Other books like Olympic over-reacted and set the odds at 10-1 for Washington. Not recommended here. For the books that refuse to update their lines, whether it's because they're no awared of the info or they don't realize how "huge" is the trade or they're just too lazy to do it, well then just too bad for them. Take advantage of the high payoffs. They're the only one to blame. Won't mention any offshores (MJ doesn't like it) but you can still easily find 25-1 and higher. According to my numbers (they're certainly not perfect but I trust them a lot when it comes to futures), it worths about 16-1. Not less than that.
Someone (TexasBC6) brought the subject in the General Discussion forum and I'm a bit surprised of the poor reaction. "Jaromir Jagr traded to Washington" I don't know about you, but in my mind it's big. And I mean BIG. We're talking about the best offensive player in the entire World here. And short-term speaking, Washington got him for barely nothing. Jagr alone can make te difference in every single game, despite the d-minded style dominating the league, especially in the playoffs.
BTW talking about defense, Jaromir Jagr is anything but a D-player. And that's the main reason why he didn't do anything great for the Penguins at the end of the 2001 playoffs. Anyhow you all know that. He was unhappy with the situation and he reacted in a bad way and it did create a bad ambience in the locker room and in resulted in a complete ***-whooping by the New Jersey Devils. You don't ask a defenseman to score goals; when he does it's a plus for the team. In the same way, you don't ask an over-talented forward such as Jaromir Jagr to play D-hockey. Once again, when he does play good defense, it's a plus for the team. But basically his role is to score goals. Nothing else.
It's a sad thing Ivan Hlinka and Jagr couldn't find a way to negotiate at the end of the playoffs. On one side, Hlinka couldn't understand what Jagr is all about, and on the other Jagr couldn't understand what hockey in the playoffs is all about. I think that both sides will learn from this, and expect Jagr to adjust his playing style a *bit* in the future. He won't have much choice with a D-oriented like the Caps anyways. BUT the point is, don't expect coach Ron Wilson to ask his new superstar to play like the rest of the team. When the Caps acquired him, they were fully awared of what he thinks about D-hockey. Ron Wilson will hopefully be smart enough to let Jagr use his creativity on the ice. Therefore, the Caps #1 scoring line should be all-offense oriented, while the other lines will remain D-style lines. That simple.
Jagr needed a change, and now he's got it. At a top age for hockey players (29), expect him to have a huge year with his new teammates and expect him to make a big difference. With the addition of Jagr and the possible addition of a quality center (such as Jason Allison), the Caps are now ranked 8th in the NHL in my mind, and in the rather "pathetic" south-east division, they should finish 1st quite easily and with a healthy Olaf Kolzig, they might do their part of damages in the playoffs. Also, we're sure not talking about the same level of player here, but don't forget about the other one in the deal, Frantisek Kucera, who's a hard working defenseman which fits with the Caps attitude.
I know, futures are not everyone, still a long time to go before the 2002 SC playoffs, but if you're willing to "freeze" some of your money for a while, in exchange of some superb value plays, then you shouldn't feel bad about betting futures. If the Caps are doing the way I think (well not even that), then you can always hedge your bet by going against the Caps for all the playoffs. That's what I did with New Jersey last year. I'll also take the opportunity to post the other NHL futures wagers I made (all from the "Futures Bankroll", which represents 40% of the entire bankroll.. 1 unit = 2% of the initial futures bankroll)
0.5 unit NY Rangers 50-1
Not recommended - I previously made that bet because I really thought they would put their hands on Jagr. I'll try to learn from this. No rush to bet in the off season as long as nothing happens.
1.5 units Detroit 9-1
Hasek not in a good shape right now, but still has a couple of months to recover. If he's healthy, he should make a huge difference in the playoffs - I don't recommend to bet on Detroit for now.. nobody really knows what's going on with Hasek.. made the bet before it happened..
1.5 units St-Louis 7-1
This team really impressed me last spring despite the loss to the Avalanche. Tkachuk now signed and Pierre Turgeon easily replaced by Doug Weight... Freddy Brathwaite a lot better than most think.. Aslo believe in Brent Johnson - good thing they got rid of Turek - no good dealing with pressure. Personally my #1 choice to win the Cup this year. Worths about 11-2 in my mind.
1.5 units Philadelphia 14-1
Look for Jeremy Roenick to bring a new wave of enthusiasm both in the locker room and in the crowd. Now if they really are serious about winning the SC they'll have to look for a top goaltender. Maybe they can get this done by trading Lindros.. Osgood available in Detroit...
1 unit Colorado 7-1
Looks like the organization wants to repeat. Major players such as Sakic, Roy and Blake allready signed. 7-1 seems a bit too high.
0.5 unit Pittsburgh 25-1
Same story as the Rangers. No rush to bet when nothing happens. Previously made that bet because I liked what I saw in the 2001 playoffs and though they'd get something interesting for Jagr (short-term speaking). Not recommended.
40 units New Jersey 6-1
Joke. By all means don't bet on this team this year. Not for now anyways. Still a lot of players to sign.
3 units WASHINGTON 35-1
See above. The best value right now.
See you in October.....
Anything above 20 to 1 worths it. And I mean it REALLY worths it. Shop and try to get the best line. Some sportsbook allready "woke up" and updated their NHL Futures, for instance Wagerstreet (located in CANADA
Someone (TexasBC6) brought the subject in the General Discussion forum and I'm a bit surprised of the poor reaction. "Jaromir Jagr traded to Washington" I don't know about you, but in my mind it's big. And I mean BIG. We're talking about the best offensive player in the entire World here. And short-term speaking, Washington got him for barely nothing. Jagr alone can make te difference in every single game, despite the d-minded style dominating the league, especially in the playoffs.
BTW talking about defense, Jaromir Jagr is anything but a D-player. And that's the main reason why he didn't do anything great for the Penguins at the end of the 2001 playoffs. Anyhow you all know that. He was unhappy with the situation and he reacted in a bad way and it did create a bad ambience in the locker room and in resulted in a complete ***-whooping by the New Jersey Devils. You don't ask a defenseman to score goals; when he does it's a plus for the team. In the same way, you don't ask an over-talented forward such as Jaromir Jagr to play D-hockey. Once again, when he does play good defense, it's a plus for the team. But basically his role is to score goals. Nothing else.
It's a sad thing Ivan Hlinka and Jagr couldn't find a way to negotiate at the end of the playoffs. On one side, Hlinka couldn't understand what Jagr is all about, and on the other Jagr couldn't understand what hockey in the playoffs is all about. I think that both sides will learn from this, and expect Jagr to adjust his playing style a *bit* in the future. He won't have much choice with a D-oriented like the Caps anyways. BUT the point is, don't expect coach Ron Wilson to ask his new superstar to play like the rest of the team. When the Caps acquired him, they were fully awared of what he thinks about D-hockey. Ron Wilson will hopefully be smart enough to let Jagr use his creativity on the ice. Therefore, the Caps #1 scoring line should be all-offense oriented, while the other lines will remain D-style lines. That simple.
Jagr needed a change, and now he's got it. At a top age for hockey players (29), expect him to have a huge year with his new teammates and expect him to make a big difference. With the addition of Jagr and the possible addition of a quality center (such as Jason Allison), the Caps are now ranked 8th in the NHL in my mind, and in the rather "pathetic" south-east division, they should finish 1st quite easily and with a healthy Olaf Kolzig, they might do their part of damages in the playoffs. Also, we're sure not talking about the same level of player here, but don't forget about the other one in the deal, Frantisek Kucera, who's a hard working defenseman which fits with the Caps attitude.
I know, futures are not everyone, still a long time to go before the 2002 SC playoffs, but if you're willing to "freeze" some of your money for a while, in exchange of some superb value plays, then you shouldn't feel bad about betting futures. If the Caps are doing the way I think (well not even that), then you can always hedge your bet by going against the Caps for all the playoffs. That's what I did with New Jersey last year. I'll also take the opportunity to post the other NHL futures wagers I made (all from the "Futures Bankroll", which represents 40% of the entire bankroll.. 1 unit = 2% of the initial futures bankroll)
0.5 unit NY Rangers 50-1
Not recommended - I previously made that bet because I really thought they would put their hands on Jagr. I'll try to learn from this. No rush to bet in the off season as long as nothing happens.
1.5 units Detroit 9-1
Hasek not in a good shape right now, but still has a couple of months to recover. If he's healthy, he should make a huge difference in the playoffs - I don't recommend to bet on Detroit for now.. nobody really knows what's going on with Hasek.. made the bet before it happened..
1.5 units St-Louis 7-1
This team really impressed me last spring despite the loss to the Avalanche. Tkachuk now signed and Pierre Turgeon easily replaced by Doug Weight... Freddy Brathwaite a lot better than most think.. Aslo believe in Brent Johnson - good thing they got rid of Turek - no good dealing with pressure. Personally my #1 choice to win the Cup this year. Worths about 11-2 in my mind.
1.5 units Philadelphia 14-1
Look for Jeremy Roenick to bring a new wave of enthusiasm both in the locker room and in the crowd. Now if they really are serious about winning the SC they'll have to look for a top goaltender. Maybe they can get this done by trading Lindros.. Osgood available in Detroit...
1 unit Colorado 7-1
Looks like the organization wants to repeat. Major players such as Sakic, Roy and Blake allready signed. 7-1 seems a bit too high.
0.5 unit Pittsburgh 25-1
Same story as the Rangers. No rush to bet when nothing happens. Previously made that bet because I liked what I saw in the 2001 playoffs and though they'd get something interesting for Jagr (short-term speaking). Not recommended.
40 units New Jersey 6-1
Joke. By all means don't bet on this team this year. Not for now anyways. Still a lot of players to sign.
3 units WASHINGTON 35-1
See above. The best value right now.
See you in October.....
