- Feb 14, 2006
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After looking at the way the games have been going, ive developed a system that is based strictly on motivation.
Big 5 Teams: US., Dominican, Japan, Mexico, Rico
(2-0) Team -vs- (0-1) Team
If a team is up by 2 games in a pool they will not cover the spread in the 3rd.
(0/1-1)Top 5 team -vs- (1/2-0/2) Team
If one of these top 5 teams lost their first and is facing elimination they will cover in their next games against a team with a diff. record.
(0-1) Team -vs- (0-1) Team
If both teams are facing elimination, then take the total runs scored by the team and divide it by the runs allowed. The team with the greater avg is the team to pick.
It seems like these big teams just expect to win. I know their isnt much statistical logic to this, but ill see how it works.
*For this system, i wouldnt bet the spread unless you're given runs. (Except for U.S. and Dominican, who can usually beat it).
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First game would be:
Dominican Republic(0-1) vs Cuba(1-0)
Cuba: 1.27
Dom: 1.36
Dominican -1.5
Big 5 Teams: US., Dominican, Japan, Mexico, Rico
(2-0) Team -vs- (0-1) Team
If a team is up by 2 games in a pool they will not cover the spread in the 3rd.
(0/1-1)Top 5 team -vs- (1/2-0/2) Team
If one of these top 5 teams lost their first and is facing elimination they will cover in their next games against a team with a diff. record.
(0-1) Team -vs- (0-1) Team
If both teams are facing elimination, then take the total runs scored by the team and divide it by the runs allowed. The team with the greater avg is the team to pick.
It seems like these big teams just expect to win. I know their isnt much statistical logic to this, but ill see how it works.
*For this system, i wouldnt bet the spread unless you're given runs. (Except for U.S. and Dominican, who can usually beat it).
------------------------------------------------------------
First game would be:
Dominican Republic(0-1) vs Cuba(1-0)
Cuba: 1.27
Dom: 1.36
Dominican -1.5
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