Weak 6 down but not out

spang

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32-36 -15.45

Giving it away on saturdays and getiing it back on sundays.......

Cutting down on my NCAA capping and my plays this week but this one really grabbed my attention.

Indiana/ Virginia Over 46 four unit play.

This number surprised me and is a fairly large play. To keep it simple, I expect to see the ball in the air a lot in this game resulting in a slow clock and some big plays.
 

AR182

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spang....

i'm the opposite of you....i give whatever i win on sat. right back on sunday....

good luck & hope you turn it around....i'm sure you will....
 

Cie

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Same boat. In fact, I was talking w/ LABurns this morning about this. For the past season and half, I have been at or near breakeven on Saturday while winning in NFL. Prior to that, I was on a highly profitable 3 year run in college, but barely stayed afloat in NFL.

What has me confused is I haven't changed my approach and I still look at ncaaf everyday, while I look at NFL for less than 45 minutes on sunday morning:confused:

GL sir:toast:
 

ninosaturnino

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spang....

i'm the opposite of you....i give whatever i win on sat. right back on sunday....

good luck & hope you turn it around....i'm sure you will....

well i beat you both...i give away everything i won in bases and soccer both SAT AND SUN!!!!

:142smilie :142smilie bol hermanos!
 

spang

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Thanks Fellas,

Went through the rest of the card and landed on the following. All the rest are for one unit.

Eastern/ Central under 54'
Temple/Ball St over 47'
OU/Akron under 51'
Kent/BG under 53'
Western Mich +9

BOL to all
 

IE

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spang, is this a fair assessment of the game:

Thursday, October 08, 2009
Clawson Presser--All Banged Up

Very informative presser today from Coach. Feel free to head to the official website and take a look. Meanwhile, some things I found notable.

In what was an unusually honest comment from a coach, he said we were fortunate it was as close as it was at the end. And about that, he is right. We made too many mistakes, etc etc.

Coach says we are simply giving up too many plays on defense. We had been better stopping the run, but because we don't feel we have the size to just play "base" defense we have to compensate with blitzes (run and pass) and those end to get exposed.

"Your defense is your defense," Coach keeps saying, (and I swear I don't have the faintest idea what that might mean, and why your offense isn't your offense). He says we run a lot of multiple sets but if you have guys in the wrong gap and miss a tackle while you are trying to make a play, you can give up a big play.

On offense we are making too many mistakes. We aren't executing when we really need it--noting in particular that against Marshall and OU we were inside the 15 with less than a minute to go and lost both games.

Coach said that the team is banged up. In addition to the receivers, Winston Etheridge, a Dlineman has been lost for the season due to illness, and coach indicated it could be a career-ending illness.

Also, we have already talked about the three WR injuries (Wiley, Brighton, Pronty) and now Ray Hutson is injured as well. He may not play against Kent and he may not play the rest of the season, according to coach.

Willie Geter was banged up in the 2nd half against OU, as well.

I thought this was interesting. When the defense has a breakdown, they come out during practice on Sunday and re-create it--the play, situation, context. They teach the correction. Then, during practice in the week, that exact play will get put into a mix of plays they are practicing....and they show they react when it is unannounced.

We are very average on special teams. (A conclusion reached also in the ivy colored walls of the ICSTR).

He says we aren't practicing like a 1-4 team, but that 10% of our players are not giving everything they have.

He was asked about personnel changes and how his system might be fitting in. He replied that we are not doing everything we would like on offense or defense.

Finally, he had high praise for Jerrett Sanderson, who rushes like an end, covers like a corner and plays LB like a LB.

On Kent, he said the following:

* Their QB situation is stabilized.
* They found a guy to replace Jarvis
* They are improved.
* On defense, they play zone blitz and have 40 tackles for loss.


We have to avoid letting them get us "off schedule."

It will be interesting to see how we handle the pressure. My impression is that pressure can throw our QB's timing off (as it can any QB), but if he is prepared well, perhaps he can just hit the hot route and not worry about too many decisions.
 

Kramer

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spang, need your input on Ohio/Akron. Sometime
around the start of the season I was trying to
work up my sandwich games and I got sidetracked
on this game for some reason and circled it. I don't
know squat about this conference but when I
took a look at it I circled it.

Akron off a bye week, at home, Homecoming.
Ohio might be a tad worn down.

Thoughts :shrug:
 

spang

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It seems like a real fair assessment. Though Clawson and some other faces have changed, BG's season seems to be almost a carbon copy of last years team. They have been in position to win all except the Boise game but one or two plays have been the difference. I do think they are better than their record indicates but they have to make the plays at critical times to get the results needed for a W.

I think that they are a little better than Kent overall but kent could have won at Waco last week. The score was pretty misleading because Kent spent a lot of the game deep on the Baylor side of the field. The Flashes pretty much beat themselves with penalties and mistakes. It sounds really cliche, but who ever plays the cleanest game will win. Right now, I think that BG looks tempting at the reduced number.

I'm still on the fence but probably will make a play tomorrow.
 

spang

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Kramer, funny you bring up homecoming as my youngest and his date just left for it dessed to kill.

Akron is just a mess now since CJ left the team. It is good that they are coming off the bye as it does give Rodgers more time to work. JD has changed the entire practice routine by using first unit vs. first unit instead of the scout team. he said it has made the practice much more productive by bringing it up to speed. He also said the psyche of the team is in great shape despite the losses. It will be interesting to see if the team makes some progress this week. I do expect them to be better.

I really have not seen enough of OU to say much about them. They made some big plays against BG and played pretty well at Tenn. They are getting some really good play from their QB and their offense seems to be much better that previous editions. I think OU comes into this one as the better team but may be just a bit overvalued as a road chalk.

I'm not going to play this game but think it should be close so I'd give just a slight edge to the home dog. I just need to see Akron play a complete game with Rodgers at the helm before I use them at all.
 

spang

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2H play

Nevada -7 (even) 2 units

bad things can happen in a hurry when a team that likes to run it has to go to the air. Nevada wins this going away
 

johnnyb.

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only for you to compare, this guy is a tout who doesn't charge. he has good write-ups but basically an attention whore.

$500.00 Take ?Under? 46.5 Indiana at Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
Weather could be a factor in this game and, even before I read the weather report, I had already liked the ?under? in this game. This is kind of an awkward nonconference matchup and neither one of these teams nor coaches is very familiar with the other?s system. I think that?s going to lead to both clubs ?dancing around the ring? a bit and we should see a very low-scoring affair. Indiana has gone ?over? in three straight games. But they really do not have that strong of an offense and have been relying on the big play to get the job done. This team is just 72nd in the country in yards gained and just 73rd in points scored. Virginia is the same thing. They have gone ?over in two of three games. But they are 118th in total yards and a terrible 104th in points scored. If you add up the average points scored by UVA and points allowed by Virginia you only get 43.9. If you do the same for the UVA defense and IU offense you still only get 49.4. That leaves us right around that 46.5 and that?s where the teams got the numbers. But what those raw stats don?t consider is the quality of opponent and opposing offense and defense that the clubs have played. Virginia has scored less than 20 points in eight of 10 games and Indiana has managed less than 24 points in seven of 10.

Hope you get it!
 

spang

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only for you to compare, this guy is a tout who doesn't charge. he has good write-ups but basically an attention whore.

$500.00 Take ?Under? 46.5 Indiana at Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 10)
Weather could be a factor in this game and, even before I read the weather report, I had already liked the ?under? in this game. This is kind of an awkward nonconference matchup and neither one of these teams nor coaches is very familiar with the other?s system. I think that?s going to lead to both clubs ?dancing around the ring? a bit and we should see a very low-scoring affair. Indiana has gone ?over? in three straight games. But they really do not have that strong of an offense and have been relying on the big play to get the job done. This team is just 72nd in the country in yards gained and just 73rd in points scored. Virginia is the same thing. They have gone ?over in two of three games. But they are 118th in total yards and a terrible 104th in points scored. If you add up the average points scored by UVA and points allowed by Virginia you only get 43.9. If you do the same for the UVA defense and IU offense you still only get 49.4. That leaves us right around that 46.5 and that?s where the teams got the numbers. But what those raw stats don?t consider is the quality of opponent and opposing offense and defense that the clubs have played. Virginia has scored less than 20 points in eight of 10 games and Indiana has managed less than 24 points in seven of 10.

Hope you get it!


I just think that Groh is under a lot of pressure and needs to put some points on the board. The Cav's can't run it and will have to throw and throw a lot. Indiana can give up the big play with the best of them and has some playmakers of their own to put points on the board.

Thanks for the info.
 

spang

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Picked up some xtra cheese on the Nevada halftime move last night so I have what is surely a false sense of confidence.

Adding some one unit plays with a little help from my friends. Took one game each from a handful of guys that I hold a lot of respect for. I missed out on some better numbers but took a long look at these games and like them.

The following are all for one unit

Idaho +4'
No help needed here as I have been on them for 3 straight weeks and can't jump ship now. The Vandals were on the tube last week and I love the fire and enthusiasm of the team. The win at NIU really made me take notice because they flat out destroyed a pretty good football team that day.

BG -1'

Screw the line move, just think that BG is the better side. Home field in Kent is no great advantage.

Ky under 46

Mia O/ NW under 54'
I think that most all of the MAC totals look a little inflated this week

Ga money line +105

Ga under 46'

Miss + 4'

Will be looking at some halftimes today and post if we don't go to the BG game. I want to go but my wife does not. I may let her win that battle for some future considerations. :s6:
 
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Master Capper

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Good luck today, the strangest MAC line of the week has to be WMU catching 9 @ Toledo. At the start of the season the line very well could of been WMU-7, a turn of 16 points.
 

spang

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Good luck today, the strangest MAC line of the week has to be WMU catching 9 @ Toledo. At the start of the season the line very well could of been WMU-7, a turn of 16 points.

That is a great observation and very true. Western has burned a lot of my money this season and has vastly under achieved up to this point.

Toledo has improved greatly since the fat man has stepped down and they can move the ball very well. But still, this is the same team that was pretty lucky to put away lowly Ball St. last week and their defense is garbage.

The Rockets are getting much support here as well as a couple guys I respect are on them. If Western gets whooped today, you can write them off in the west.I think the Broncs are quite qware of that and should respond with a pretty intense effort.

Just had to take a shot against that inflated number.
 

ageecee

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I know you have Under 54 C. Mich/E. Mich

I was leaning towards Over line went from 52 to 54 this week.

Talk me out of it?
 

Irish

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Nice pull on the wolfpack in the second half... I like BG in that game too... since week one they have played better than I expected.

Cheers
Irish
 

spang

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I know you have Under 54 C. Mich/E. Mich

I was leaning towards Over line went from 52 to 54 this week.

Talk me out of it?

No way will I talk you out of it. My play is based on nothing more than an educated guess and yours could be better than mine. I will give you my reasoning though.

Both teams can put up points but Eastern lost a very good under rated QB when Schmitt went down in the Mich game. The offense never got untracked against Temple last week as McMahon got the start over a freshman I like Gillett. I am guessing that he will get the call today as well. So I really do not expect to see the same offensive production as when Schmitt was healthy.

Keeping that in mind if CMU opens up a big lead, which they should, I think the Chipps may well be content to shut it down late. I think that is a scenario that could well play out, but again, that is just my guess and nothing more.

Good luck today and thanks Irish
 
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