Wed nite

[Box and one]

Fresno -6 over Boise ****
Bulldogs beat them a few weeks ago at Boise 63-53 at Boise ....Boise is coming off a 100 pt game over San Jose..Fresno lost a tough one at home losing to Utah St by 1...Fresno had won 3 of 4 where Boise after blowout win lost 2 in a row...in there 1st game Boise shot 4-21 from the 3...and again that was at home...Fresno has 2 super gds in Huggins and Taylor..they scored 31 and 18 in there 1st game...these guys could be the 2 best tamdem gds in the MV...they also have New Williams and Blackwell at gds...throw in 2 more 6'6 gds in Bittner and MCWilliams...these guys have 35,87,85,52 and 25 assits...inside they have Grimes at 6'8 who can rebound and block shots...they shoot the 3 at 38% ranking them 29th in the country...Bulldogs play tough defense..giving up 67 pts a game.. Boise at home shoots FG%50..and they shoot the 3...but think Fresno is to athletic and much quicker and at home..Fresno is in 2nd place in the MW..with Neveda ahead of them think they are playing for 2ndplace...Fresno has a weak front court but Boise doesn't have a good front court to challenge them..think Fresno wins by 10 at home,

Temple -4.5 over Smoo **
Cuse +3 over NC St **

Texas Tech -6.5 over Ok St ***
TT hasn't won in Stillwater since man landed on the moon...Moretti TT's Italian kid who is hot as any pizza oven in Stillwater will be problems to stop...OK st has a promotion during their time outs delivering pizza's to their fans...they better not deliver any pizza's to the Texas Tech bench because Moretti will say
we don't have a dominos in Rome...and go hit a few more 3's...Culver is the best player on the court and Mooney from South Dak and Owens from the Johnnies are tough...think the streak ends tonite and if they can run it up they will...

Siena -2.5 over Iona **
So Bama +9 over Ga South **

yest 4-0 +9.00
304-283 -20.70

thanks ez and teeb
best play
Fresno

 

[Old School]

Temple -4.5 over Smoo ** W+2.00*

Texas Tech -6.5 over Ok St *** W+3.00*

Siena -2.5 over Iona ** L-2.20*

So Bama +9 over Ga South ** L-2.20*

Cuse +3 over NC St ** L-2.20*

Fresno -6 over Boise **** L-4.40*

2-4[-6.00*]

2/13/19 YTD
306-287
[-26.70]

 

[Macgruder23]

Fresno -6 over Boise ****
Bulldogs beat them a few weeks ago at Boise 63-53 at Boise ....Boise is coming off a 100 pt game over San Jose..Fresno lost a tough one at home losing to Utah St by 1...Fresno had won 3 of 4 where Boise after blowout win lost 2 in a row...in there 1st game Boise shot 4-21 from the 3...and again that was at home...Fresno has 2 super gds in Huggins and Taylor..they scored 31 and 18 in there 1st game...these guys could be the 2 best tamdem gds in the MV...they also have New Williams and Blackwell at gds...throw in 2 more 6'6 gds in Bittner and MCWilliams...these guys have 35,87,85,52 and 25 assits...inside they have Grimes at 6'8 who can rebound and block shots...they shoot the 3 at 38% ranking them 29th in the country...Bulldogs play tough defense..giving up 67 pts a game.. Boise at home shoots FG%50..and they shoot the 3...but think Fresno is to athletic and much quicker and at home..Fresno is in 2nd place in the MW..with Neveda ahead of them think they are playing for 2ndplace...Fresno has a weak front court but Boise doesn't have a good front court to challenge them..think Fresno wins by 10 at home,

Temple -4.5 over Smoo **
Cuse +3 over NC St **

Texas Tech -6.5 over Ok St ***
TT hasn't won in Stillwater since man landed on the moon...Moretti TT's Italian kid who is hot as any pizza oven in Stillwater will be problems to stop...OK st has a promotion during their time outs delivering pizza's to their fans...they better not deliver any pizza's to the Texas Tech bench because Moretti will say
we don't have a dominos in Rome...and go hit a few more 3's...Culver is the best player on the court and Mooney from South Dak and Owens from the Johnnies are tough...think the streak ends tonite and if they can run it up they will...

Siena -2.5 over Iona **
So Bama +9 over Ga South **

yest 4-0 +9.00
304-283 -20.70

thanks ez and teeb
best play
Fresno

So I?ve often struggled with this and maybe you could shed some insight . It seems to me that a road team that wins by 10 comes home to play the same team and the line is 6 ?? I just am asking I don?t like either side I?m just puzzled why line is short or appears to be ?


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[Musca]

So I?ve often struggled with this and maybe you could shed some insight . It seems to me that a road team that wins by 10 comes home to play the same team and the line is 6 ?? I just am asking I don?t like either side I?m just puzzled why line is short or appears to be ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The answer to this is because, most often, the prior matchup does not matter. The first matchup had BSU close as a 2 point favorite. So, Subtract home court (often attributed as 3 or 4 points) then add home court for Fresno and you end up with a line of Fresno -6.

-2 + 4+ 4 = -6

Lines are made based on a hypotetical power ranking. The lines are made based on that power ranking. Seldom does it take a prior matchup into account unless there was an injury or a blowout or something like that.

 

[Macgruder23]

The answer to this is because, most often, the prior matchup does not matter. The first matchup had BSU close as a 2 point favorite. So, Subtract home court (often attributed as 3 or 4 points) then add home court for Fresno and you end up with a line of Fresno -6.

-2 + 4+ 4 = -6

Lines are made based on a hypotetical power ranking. The lines are made based on that power ranking. Seldom does it take a prior matchup into account unless there was an injury or a blowout or something like that.

Thanks for the insight . I guess that?s why I fall for this . Does it hold truth to totals as well ?? Cause I feel that?s where you see some serious discrepancies from 1 game to next


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[Musca]

Totals do have more variance but yes there are power ratings to it to... You will have prior games taken into a game to a degree.

At my computer- I have Home, Road, and Neutral power ratings for every team. My plays are set for me as soon as lines come out. But I spend every night back capping. I go back through box scores and look at everything. I spend as much time back capping as most probably do handicapping. The most important thing, for me, are my numbers.


I cant share mine but look at Sagarins advaned ratings, Massey etc to get cleaner examples of lines and how they are made.