it's been a while since i've posted college hoops plays. i'm a lot better at football. but i've been on a very good run, so thought i'd put an end to that by posting my plays. we'll see how this goes.
i am going to throw out one factor that has been helping me. normally, i'm fairly contrarian. if a line looks too good to be true, i'll bet against the obvious. but now i'm using the espn computer predictions. yes, i know... that's dumb. but bear with me. last night was a perfect example. VT was -2 at home against miami. Miami has been on a great run and logically should have been favored. seemed like the perfect time to bet on VT. that line was BEGGING for miami money. BUT... the computer showed VT had something like a 71% chance to win. which would normally mean VT is favored by around 6 points. so that line had already been adjusted quite a bit.
hopefully that makes some sense. the computers drive the lines these days. so just because a line looks out of whack at first... a little more digging is required. i've been doing this for a few weeks now, and so far it's gotten me off a lot of losers and onto the right side. it feels like you're betting on the "public" play.
a few weeks is still a small sample, and maybe i've just been lucky. but it's been effective enough that i thought it was worthwhile to share.
ok, onto tonight's plays. almost all my college basketball bets are smaller than my 1-unit football plays, so i'm not even assigning a unit value.
bucknell (+4) lehigh is in quite a tailspin, losing 4 of their last 6. and their 2 wins were by 2 & 3 points.
vandy (-2.5) hate laying points with a road team, but LSU has lost 14 (14!) straight games. i'll take a shot with a vandy team that has won 5 straight games. and, fwiw, the computer shows LSU with a 54% chance of winning. so, based on that, LSU should be favored by about a point.
GW (+2.5) another decent example of what i talked about above. GW is the obvious bet. Rhody is in a tailspin, losing 5 straight. but the computer has rhody with a 65% chance of winning.
samford (-3) perfect example... samford, 14-2 in conference, only laying 3? but the computer shows chattanooga with a 66% of winning. one caveat... this game may be meaningless for samford. i think win or lose, they will still win the regular season championship with a win in their next game against furman.
WF (+5.5)
i am going to throw out one factor that has been helping me. normally, i'm fairly contrarian. if a line looks too good to be true, i'll bet against the obvious. but now i'm using the espn computer predictions. yes, i know... that's dumb. but bear with me. last night was a perfect example. VT was -2 at home against miami. Miami has been on a great run and logically should have been favored. seemed like the perfect time to bet on VT. that line was BEGGING for miami money. BUT... the computer showed VT had something like a 71% chance to win. which would normally mean VT is favored by around 6 points. so that line had already been adjusted quite a bit.
hopefully that makes some sense. the computers drive the lines these days. so just because a line looks out of whack at first... a little more digging is required. i've been doing this for a few weeks now, and so far it's gotten me off a lot of losers and onto the right side. it feels like you're betting on the "public" play.
a few weeks is still a small sample, and maybe i've just been lucky. but it's been effective enough that i thought it was worthwhile to share.
ok, onto tonight's plays. almost all my college basketball bets are smaller than my 1-unit football plays, so i'm not even assigning a unit value.
bucknell (+4) lehigh is in quite a tailspin, losing 4 of their last 6. and their 2 wins were by 2 & 3 points.
vandy (-2.5) hate laying points with a road team, but LSU has lost 14 (14!) straight games. i'll take a shot with a vandy team that has won 5 straight games. and, fwiw, the computer shows LSU with a 54% chance of winning. so, based on that, LSU should be favored by about a point.
GW (+2.5) another decent example of what i talked about above. GW is the obvious bet. Rhody is in a tailspin, losing 5 straight. but the computer has rhody with a 65% chance of winning.
samford (-3) perfect example... samford, 14-2 in conference, only laying 3? but the computer shows chattanooga with a 66% of winning. one caveat... this game may be meaningless for samford. i think win or lose, they will still win the regular season championship with a win in their next game against furman.
WF (+5.5)
