Last Night: 3-1
YTD: 45-34
Wednesday
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1) Florida State(+6)
FSU has been a dog 5 times this year and are 4-1 ATS in that role, with the 1 loss by 1.5 pts to the line. They are 6-4 ATS in their last 10, and 6-2 ATS on the road. They won here last year as an 11 point dog.
North Carolina State is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 with 2 of the covers being Overtime wins. If they lose those two games (at Clemson, at Miami) they are 1-8 ATS in the last 9, so they have not been at thier best for the last month. Or maybe they have been? They are 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they have been favoured at home.
When the stats are filtered, they are a saw-off.
FSU just looks sharper right now.
2)Minnesota (+6.5)
Was going to pass on this game, but the more I explored it, the more I think this is a solid play.
Two teams heading in opposite directions. Wolverines have lost 3 straight by an average of 17 pts. That includes a home loss (Ohio State) and a loss at 9-14 Purdue. They have Michigan State, Illinois and Ohio State in their next 3 after this one, so they may have an eye towards those games instead of the Gophers tonight.
That would be a mistake cause this is a pretty good team. Minnesota is 12-9 YTD and have played a murderers row schedule, with 6 of their last 9 against Top 25 teams. They have won 3 of their last 4 outright, all as underdogs.
Their offensive stats don't match up with Michigan (although they do hit 38.7% of their 3's on the road) but their defensive and rebounding numbers stack up well.
And it's another "fishy line" kinda game IMO.
At last look, 71% were on the Wolverines.
3)Towson State(+8.5)
Virginia Commonwealth is 16-7 YTD, but just 5-6 on the road. Towson State is 10-14 YTD, but above .500 at home at 6-5.
VC is 2-6 ATS in their last 8.
T St is 5-2 ATS in their last 7.
Defensively, they are just about even, but Towson shows an advantage on the boards........they outrebounded VC 36-28 two weeks ago in a 6 pt loss at VC, and they have a big advantage in offence..........
OFG%
VC road.............41.1%
T St home.............46.9%
The Rams are also coming off 2 tough division games..........loss to 19-5 George Mason and a win over 17-8 Old Dominion, so they may have a let down against 10-14 Towson State.
It's a very generous 8.5 points.
4)Central Florida (+4.5)
UCF is 10-11 YTD, but a solid 8-4 S/U at home.
When the stats are flitered for home/road, 2 categories are basically washes, but the other 3 show advantages for UCF.
A live home dog.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
Still working on the later games...............................
YTD: 45-34
Wednesday
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1) Florida State(+6)
FSU has been a dog 5 times this year and are 4-1 ATS in that role, with the 1 loss by 1.5 pts to the line. They are 6-4 ATS in their last 10, and 6-2 ATS on the road. They won here last year as an 11 point dog.
North Carolina State is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 with 2 of the covers being Overtime wins. If they lose those two games (at Clemson, at Miami) they are 1-8 ATS in the last 9, so they have not been at thier best for the last month. Or maybe they have been? They are 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they have been favoured at home.
When the stats are filtered, they are a saw-off.
FSU just looks sharper right now.
2)Minnesota (+6.5)
Was going to pass on this game, but the more I explored it, the more I think this is a solid play.
Two teams heading in opposite directions. Wolverines have lost 3 straight by an average of 17 pts. That includes a home loss (Ohio State) and a loss at 9-14 Purdue. They have Michigan State, Illinois and Ohio State in their next 3 after this one, so they may have an eye towards those games instead of the Gophers tonight.
That would be a mistake cause this is a pretty good team. Minnesota is 12-9 YTD and have played a murderers row schedule, with 6 of their last 9 against Top 25 teams. They have won 3 of their last 4 outright, all as underdogs.
Their offensive stats don't match up with Michigan (although they do hit 38.7% of their 3's on the road) but their defensive and rebounding numbers stack up well.
And it's another "fishy line" kinda game IMO.
At last look, 71% were on the Wolverines.
3)Towson State(+8.5)
Virginia Commonwealth is 16-7 YTD, but just 5-6 on the road. Towson State is 10-14 YTD, but above .500 at home at 6-5.
VC is 2-6 ATS in their last 8.
T St is 5-2 ATS in their last 7.
Defensively, they are just about even, but Towson shows an advantage on the boards........they outrebounded VC 36-28 two weeks ago in a 6 pt loss at VC, and they have a big advantage in offence..........
OFG%
VC road.............41.1%
T St home.............46.9%
The Rams are also coming off 2 tough division games..........loss to 19-5 George Mason and a win over 17-8 Old Dominion, so they may have a let down against 10-14 Towson State.
It's a very generous 8.5 points.
4)Central Florida (+4.5)
UCF is 10-11 YTD, but a solid 8-4 S/U at home.
When the stats are flitered for home/road, 2 categories are basically washes, but the other 3 show advantages for UCF.
A live home dog.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
Still working on the later games...............................
