wednesday ncaa hoops >>>

[loophole]

thanks for all the kudos on ecu guys. pirates really played a superb game. i think marquette went something like twelve minutes at the end of the game without scoring. interesting stat: marquette from the ft line - 0-3!

i know i'm not very good in tracking my game record over the long term and realize the importance of that in gauging credibility. that's the main reason i try to put up my reasons for picking a game so the viewer can judge the play for themselves. i only keep track of the money number come monday and usually discard my game sheets after a couple of weeks. i try to post more regularly when i've been streaking and such is the case of late. last couple of weeks or so plays have gone 42-19 gathering a little over 30 units. i say that with great trepidation as i have endured many a posting jinx when calling attention to a hot streak in the past. and to say i'm superstitious is an understatement. my intent is only to alert my friends here to it, although i'm not sure if the thing to do is jump aboard or begin to fade for the inevitable regression to mean. in any event, i'll try to keep getting them up until the streak fades.

i see what i consider some nice home dogs tonight and a couple of favorites. i'll try to get them up early enough this afternoon for some discussion. later.

 

[loophole]

it's great to have an afternoon off, too cold to play golf, so nothing to do but sit back, drink coffee and read about college basketball. how decadent. so anyway, here's what i'm going with as of now. may make some later changes but i'm pretty well committed to these:


lsu pk: i had this as a play this morning before all the talk about ole miss suspensions started. have no idea if its true - even tried to call the ole miss sid but got a recording - so will consider it a bonus if it plays out. lsu has played pretty tough at home of late and can still finish over .500 and in the nit. it's senior night, last home game, all that stuff. mainly, ole miss is just not a very good road team in the sec. they've lost their last four, and are 1-6 s/u, 2-5 ats, no covers as a fav. by all appearances this will be a low scoring defensive game, and that should work in the favor of the home team. georgia was a pk here a few nights ago, barely eking out a win, and i consider them a much better road team than the rebs.


ga tech +2-: poor wake, just played their best game of the year at md and lost on a flukely freshman mistake. they've got to be bummed. in fairness to josh howard, i bet against wake in this game because he was not supposed to start. after warmups, he decided to give it a try and ended up with 18 points and 15 rebounds. wake would have never stayed in the game without him. he's a go tonight, but will certainly not yet be at full speed. but the late season road in the acc is brutal and the deacs have to try to turn around in atlanta riding four losses in their last five. the wear is especially showing in the wake d - last five 94.2 ppg, 52.7% fg (wow), 37.4 3 pt. meanwhile, ga tech is playing solid ball, winning and covering six of eight with understandable lossses at duke and md. in those six wins, tech found the d that wake lost, holding those opponents under 40% from the floor. another senior night, this time for tony akins, the heart and soul of this team. hard to believe he won't have a large night against the wake guards. tech had steadily improved this year and i think they catch the demon deacons in a bad spot tonight. also will lend suport to valuist's play on the under in this game. as i am picking tech to win outright i certainly feel like the jackets hold wake well under 80.


louisville +8 and under 141: okay, this is a "feel" play, but it feels kinda good. despite a lackluster year cards still 13-2 s/u at home, 7-7 ats but all noncovers as a fav. there's a lot of history in louisville of knocking off national powers, and rick pitino has that kind of history himself. i still remember in the early nineties when his ky team knocked off the seemingly unbeatable lsu with shaq. the guy is sharp this time of year. this is going to be another low scoring defensive game imo, and again i think that favors the home team. cards only allow 65 ppg at home. cincy allows 65 on the road, and their fg d is ranked first nationally. which leads me to the under. last four games between thes two have played out between 117 and 127, but three of the four games had a posted total in the 140's. 141 again tonight. either the linesmaker is a slow learner or i'm a sucker. either way i'm a player. besides it not a bad hedge for the louisville play as if the cards don't cover it will probably be because they don't break 55.


wash -12: how bad is was st? very bad, especially now. losers of last six by and average of 30 points. road numbers - 0-11 s/u, 2-9 ats, 59.3 ppg, 36% fg, 24.8 3pt, 64.6% ft, -4.4 reb. need more? check out that was st d last five - 88.8 ppg, 51.9% fg, 47.5% 3 pt, -6.2 reb. to boot, was looks for revenge against rival for earlier 2 pt loss in pullman.


ala -13: same revenge situation for clearly superior tide. auburn losers of last 10 in a row. on the road 0-8 s/u, 2-6 ats, 59.4 ppg, 40.3% fg, 31.1% 3 pt, 58% ft, -6.8 reb. bama 16-0 s/u, 7-3 ats at home this year and winners of 33 of last 34. home numbers - 86.4 ppg, 48.4% fg, 36.9% 3 pt, +5.8 reb. playing rival at home off of big road win at fla reasonably assures no letdown.


may have some more later.

 

[TJ4UA]

just to add a little about bama..
the fl game was a home game for bama...
revenge is in the air bama blew a 10 pt lead at auburn early in the season..dont look for that to happen here tonight...tide wants an undeafted home season..(last year gave it up with a poor performance against ark last home game)..
also the place will be rocking as tonight the IRON bowl trophy(football, remember bama is a football school) gets returned during halftime so the fans will be there and cheering tonight...
which will be good becaue sometimes coleman colsium can be a cofin its so dull...even when the tide is winning..

overall bama should lead wire to wire and never really be in any danger of not covering...
there is only 1 senior on the team so dont look for coach gotifred to pull everone out of the game once they get up big..

 

[loophole]

thanks for the correction, tj4ua - brain lock while typing.

 

[Bama6895]

TJ,

Good to see someone from Tuscaloosa in here. I am a law student at UA and am looking forward to the game tonight.

31-7