small profit last night, still waiting for first postseason breakaway run. like tonight's card so hoping maybe this might be it.
last night playing home teams with situational edge has no positive result with louisville and geo mason performing under expectations. only ball st holds form. however road dog with prep edge wins outright as mon st leads wire to wire. both totals play over as predicted. tonigh will shift strategy as edge on home team with prep advantage fades a little the deeper you go into the tournament. with tonight's lines, i'll mostly go with dogs with what i perceive to be motivational or numbers edge:
sc +4
lsu +7
both va and iowa are big time names from power conferences off disappointing seasons with no ncaa bid considered an indicator of failure. says iowa f duez henderson, "first, i've got to get myself motivated before i can get anybody else motivated. its tough." from cavs coach gillen, "i've got to get their spirits back up." weak fan turnout expected in both iowas city and charlottesville, where students are on spring break. also iowa has performed weakly of late in nit, losing last two tourney home games. with first round acc tourney loss to wolfpack, wahoos have now lost eleven consecutive post season games. both dogs are solid sec teams playing in best form at season's end. both had no recent aspiration for an ncaa bid and are thus just happy to be there.. i'll bet at least one of these two dogs wins outright.
detroit +11
wagner +13
both of these double digit lines seem a little heavy to me. detroit plays good enough defense to keep this game in a range where 11 is a load of points. also, dayton a poor ft shooting team that will probably have some difficulty padding their lead in the endgame. wagner coached by another homeboy, derrick whittenberg of the '83 cardiac pack nat'l championship team. seahawks score enough with high tempo offense that spiders should be hard pressed to score enough points to cover dd. wagner very motivated as this is team's first postseason appearance in 23 years.
la laf +8-: love the dog in this matchup of old conference and geographic rivals. home team usually wins this matchup but cajuns barely lost in overtime to tech in last year's sun belt tourney, also played within this number in rushton. cajuns really came on in second half of season with development of 6'11" freshman center michael southall. he finished season very strongly, putting up a 16 pt, 11 rebound game against chris marcus in the sun belt finals. he should be rockin' inside against the bulldogs, who have no one over 6'8".
syr/st bon under 155: another good one first advanced first by valuist. 'cuse with inside edge has absolutely no reason to run with bonny and should be able to set tempo in carrier dome.
temple/fres st over 137-: just a hunch that two old pros like chaney and tark will just let the players decide this game that neither team really cares about.
as always, gl to all.
last night playing home teams with situational edge has no positive result with louisville and geo mason performing under expectations. only ball st holds form. however road dog with prep edge wins outright as mon st leads wire to wire. both totals play over as predicted. tonigh will shift strategy as edge on home team with prep advantage fades a little the deeper you go into the tournament. with tonight's lines, i'll mostly go with dogs with what i perceive to be motivational or numbers edge:
sc +4
lsu +7
both va and iowa are big time names from power conferences off disappointing seasons with no ncaa bid considered an indicator of failure. says iowa f duez henderson, "first, i've got to get myself motivated before i can get anybody else motivated. its tough." from cavs coach gillen, "i've got to get their spirits back up." weak fan turnout expected in both iowas city and charlottesville, where students are on spring break. also iowa has performed weakly of late in nit, losing last two tourney home games. with first round acc tourney loss to wolfpack, wahoos have now lost eleven consecutive post season games. both dogs are solid sec teams playing in best form at season's end. both had no recent aspiration for an ncaa bid and are thus just happy to be there.. i'll bet at least one of these two dogs wins outright.
detroit +11
wagner +13
both of these double digit lines seem a little heavy to me. detroit plays good enough defense to keep this game in a range where 11 is a load of points. also, dayton a poor ft shooting team that will probably have some difficulty padding their lead in the endgame. wagner coached by another homeboy, derrick whittenberg of the '83 cardiac pack nat'l championship team. seahawks score enough with high tempo offense that spiders should be hard pressed to score enough points to cover dd. wagner very motivated as this is team's first postseason appearance in 23 years.
la laf +8-: love the dog in this matchup of old conference and geographic rivals. home team usually wins this matchup but cajuns barely lost in overtime to tech in last year's sun belt tourney, also played within this number in rushton. cajuns really came on in second half of season with development of 6'11" freshman center michael southall. he finished season very strongly, putting up a 16 pt, 11 rebound game against chris marcus in the sun belt finals. he should be rockin' inside against the bulldogs, who have no one over 6'8".
syr/st bon under 155: another good one first advanced first by valuist. 'cuse with inside edge has absolutely no reason to run with bonny and should be able to set tempo in carrier dome.
temple/fres st over 137-: just a hunch that two old pros like chaney and tark will just let the players decide this game that neither team really cares about.
as always, gl to all.
