5 Plays For Wednesday
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1)Kansas State(+22)
The most important stat I look at is Defensive FG% and these two teams are actually very close in that category. K.State sits at 41.6% and Kansas comes in at 40.9%. When defending the 3 point shot, State is actually much better at 32.2% while Kansas is at 37.2%.
State averages 69.0 points/gm and Kansas gives up an average of 76.2 pts/gm, and over the last 5 games, 3 of which were at home, Kansas has actually given up 81.8/gm, all very significant numbers when laying 22 points.
Each team is 7-2 ATS the last 9, but Kansas is just 1-2 ATS in their last 3.
Overall, enough angles for me to grab a whopping 22 point cushion.
2)Virginia Tech(-1.5)
Rutgers and Tech have similar stats in most statistical categories except for free throws where Tech has a HUGE advantage at 69.0% to just 57.9% for Rutgers. A poor free throw shooting team in a near pick-em on the road is always a good go-against.
Not to mention, Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in their last 10, including outright upset wins over Boston College and Providence.
3)Toledo(+8.5)
Rebounding, defensive FG%, and free throw numbers for these two teams are basically even. Ohio has the edge in Offensive FG% in the year-to-date figures, but a closer look reveals that Toledo has actually been the better team lately.
In each team's last 5 games, Toledo is better at:
.....offensive FG%.....46.7% to 45.4%.
.....offensive 3 pt FG%...43.7% to 36.4%
.....defensive FG%....39.8% to 43.2%
.....defensive 3 pt FG%...33.7% to 40.0%
Solid enough stats for me to grab a very generous 8.5 points.
4)Eastern Michigan(+8)
Pure YTD stats all slightly favour the visiting Western Michigan team, but as always, let's have a closer look. When we use the more revealing home/road numbers, a different picture appears.
On the road W.M. offensive FG% is 39.6%
At home E.M. offensive FG% is 42.9%
Advantage:Eastern Michigan
On the road, W.M. defensive FG% is 49.8%
At home, E.M. defensvie FG% is 45.9%
Advantage:Eastern Michigan
Add in the fact that Eastern Mich has won the last 3 here vs Western Mich by an average of 14.7 points and we have a live dog.
5)Notre Dame(+1)
The Irish simply are better in all the key categories that I look at.
They are better in offensive FG%....45.5% to 40.3%
Offensive 3 pt %.....36.9% to 29.1%
Free throws.....70.3% to 66.7%
Defensive FG%.....39.8% to 41.1%
They also have a slight rebounding advantage and have been better in the key categories in the last 5 games for each team
The 5 Wednesday Plays Again
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1)Kansas State(+22)
2)Virginia Tech(-1.5)
3)Toledo(+8.5)
4)Eastern Michigan(+8)
5)Notre Dame(+1)
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
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1)Kansas State(+22)
The most important stat I look at is Defensive FG% and these two teams are actually very close in that category. K.State sits at 41.6% and Kansas comes in at 40.9%. When defending the 3 point shot, State is actually much better at 32.2% while Kansas is at 37.2%.
State averages 69.0 points/gm and Kansas gives up an average of 76.2 pts/gm, and over the last 5 games, 3 of which were at home, Kansas has actually given up 81.8/gm, all very significant numbers when laying 22 points.
Each team is 7-2 ATS the last 9, but Kansas is just 1-2 ATS in their last 3.
Overall, enough angles for me to grab a whopping 22 point cushion.
2)Virginia Tech(-1.5)
Rutgers and Tech have similar stats in most statistical categories except for free throws where Tech has a HUGE advantage at 69.0% to just 57.9% for Rutgers. A poor free throw shooting team in a near pick-em on the road is always a good go-against.
Not to mention, Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in their last 10, including outright upset wins over Boston College and Providence.
3)Toledo(+8.5)
Rebounding, defensive FG%, and free throw numbers for these two teams are basically even. Ohio has the edge in Offensive FG% in the year-to-date figures, but a closer look reveals that Toledo has actually been the better team lately.
In each team's last 5 games, Toledo is better at:
.....offensive FG%.....46.7% to 45.4%.
.....offensive 3 pt FG%...43.7% to 36.4%
.....defensive FG%....39.8% to 43.2%
.....defensive 3 pt FG%...33.7% to 40.0%
Solid enough stats for me to grab a very generous 8.5 points.
4)Eastern Michigan(+8)
Pure YTD stats all slightly favour the visiting Western Michigan team, but as always, let's have a closer look. When we use the more revealing home/road numbers, a different picture appears.
On the road W.M. offensive FG% is 39.6%
At home E.M. offensive FG% is 42.9%
Advantage:Eastern Michigan
On the road, W.M. defensive FG% is 49.8%
At home, E.M. defensvie FG% is 45.9%
Advantage:Eastern Michigan
Add in the fact that Eastern Mich has won the last 3 here vs Western Mich by an average of 14.7 points and we have a live dog.
5)Notre Dame(+1)
The Irish simply are better in all the key categories that I look at.
They are better in offensive FG%....45.5% to 40.3%
Offensive 3 pt %.....36.9% to 29.1%
Free throws.....70.3% to 66.7%
Defensive FG%.....39.8% to 41.1%
They also have a slight rebounding advantage and have been better in the key categories in the last 5 games for each team
The 5 Wednesday Plays Again
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1)Kansas State(+22)
2)Virginia Tech(-1.5)
3)Toledo(+8.5)
4)Eastern Michigan(+8)
5)Notre Dame(+1)
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
