Wednesday overall numbers vs last 5 games

[Fast Eddie]

Had a really good night in college last night here. 4-1 and only loss was +260 on ucf as they squandered a 20 point lead. I will post today's plays later this afternoon.

Here are my numbers based on overall and last 5 games.

I try to get an idea of who is playing well(last 5 games) and see if I can make a case for a play on them. I also check line movement and a few consensus sites.

overall is listed first and then last 5 ex
Duke -7.2 overall and Duke -18.3 last 5


01/25/07 Overall Last 5
CLEMSON - Current Season Performance 79.3 65.9
DUKE - Current Season Performance 86.5 -7.2 84.1 -18.3

WI-MILWAUKEE - Current Season Performance 64 68.5
DETROIT - Current Season Performance 72.7 -8.7 78 -9.5

CHARLOTTE - Current Season Performance 69 73.6
SAINT LOUIS - Current Season Performance 76.8 -7.9 73.9 -0.3

W KENTUCKY - Current Season Performance 76.6 72.5
ARKANSAS ST - Current Season Performance 76.5 0 80.9 -8.5

BUTLER - Current Season Performance 79.2 83.5
LOYOLA-IL - Current Season Performance 77.3 1.8 73.5 10

FLA INTERNATIONAL - Current Season Performance 64.5 67.9
NEW ORLEANS - Current Season Performance 72.3 -7.8 75.1 -7.1

MIDDLE TENN ST - Current Season Performance 72.7 73.9
N TEXAS - Current Season Performance 77.2 -4.6 67.3 6.5

LA-MONROE - Current Season Performance 68.4 67.2
S ALABAMA - Current Season Performance 76.8 -8.4 84.8 -17.6

DENVER - Current Season Performance 62 73
TROY ST - Current Season Performance 74 -12.1 74.6 -1.6

FRESNO ST - Current Season Performance 76.5 65.3
BOISE ST - Current Season Performance 81.7 -5.2 81.9 -16.7

UCLA - Current Season Performance 82.1 75.2
CALIFORNIA - Current Season Performance 76.6 5.5 70.3 4.9

LONG BEACH ST - Current Season Performance 73.2 79.8
UC-IRVINE - Current Season Performance 78.1 -4.9 82 -2.2

UC-SANTA BARBARA - Current Season Performance 76.1 67.8
CS-NORTHRIDGE - Current Season Performance 76.2 -0.2 78.1 -10.3

OREGON ST - Current Season Performance 68.2 60.5
WASHINGTON ST - Current Season Performance 83.2 -15 86 -25.6

LOUISIANA TECH - Current Season Performance 65.3 64.7
NEVADA - Current Season Performance 84.4 -19 78.7 -13.9

CAL POLY-SLO - Current Season Performance 71.1 74.4
PACIFIC - Current Season Performance 72.1 -1 76.9 -2.5

USC - Current Season Performance 82.8 84.1
STANFORD - Current Season Performance 78.5 4.4 79.5 4.7

OREGON - Current Season Performance 79.8 72.9
WASHINGTON - Current Season Performance 78.2 1.6 68.4 4.5

SAN JOSE ST - Current Season Performance 63.4 71.3
HAWAII - Current Season Performance 77.4 -14.1 72.9 -1.6

TENNESSEE ST - Current Season Performance 67.5 76.7
E KENTUCKY - Current Season Performance 73.5 -6 66.9 9.8

JACKSONVILLE ST - Current Season Performance 69 74.6
AUSTIN PEAY - Current Season Performance 73.9 -4.9 80 -5.4

MONTANA - Current Season Performance 72.2 68.3
N ARIZONA - Current Season Performance 74.6 -2.4 81.7 -13.5

SAMFORD - Current Season Performance 70.1 71
TENN-MARTIN - Current Season Performance 68.5 1.6 71 0.1

WEBER ST - Current Season Performance 72.8 76.1
IDAHO ST - Current Season Performance 77.8 -4.9 85.7 -9.6

E WASHINGTON - Current Season Performance 73.4 70.4
SACRAMENTO ST - Current Season Performance 65 8.4 58.7 11.7

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I have an idea of what you are doing here, but would you mind explaining the numbers and what you think they mean? You might have something I'd like to add in to my filtering process.....or maybe not. Just curious.

Thanks and good luck,

Gary

 

[BUCKY1]

I have an idea of what you are doing here, but would you mind explaining the numbers and what you think they mean? You might have something I'd like to add in to my filtering process.....or maybe not. Just curious.

Thanks and good luck,

Gary

Yeah, me too. looks interesting.Thanks

 

[Fast Eddie]

gmroz22,

I use a few different stats to get a power rating # for the overall season, and the last 5 games. That for me is a starting point. I then try to play on teams on the rise and teams that show they should win. I would always rather take a favorite and get back doored than take a crap team and hope for a cover.

I use my numbers, consensus sites a little bit, and line movement.

it's not perfect but once conference play is in full swing the numbers usually are good. Last nights numbers are in a thread on page two if you want to check them out.

 

[ESPNTED]

What are your best play for the day? Please post the plays! Thanks

 

[stwoody]

This is a bit how my numbers are made, but you need to consider the past two year performances between teams, also. I'm talking in their head to head matchups............some teams seem to own others, some get new coaches and you have to evaluate their numbers (ie: rebounding) can be huge here. Home court can be huge for some....and is worth a look. There are a lot of variables, and no magic wand, but I agree with your capping, and if you do find the magic key, please share!

Good Luck

 

[Fast Eddie]

I agree there is no magic wand. If you can estabalish a good starting point, and cut the card by half or in a third, playing only the team that has a legit shot to win the game, you can elimate alot of the crap teams and concentrate on line movement and different matchups for a certain game.

I have to run, will post games around 5:30 when I get home

 

[Fast Eddie]

4 plays for tonight

Detroit -7.5
Duke -6.5
Arkansas St +2.5
Washington St -16

 

[Morris]

Like 3 but Duke is a no play for me. Can't win with em can't win agin em. GL tonite.

 

[Fast Eddie]

1 more because of a line move

1 more because of a line move

I will play New Orleans -9 (was 10.5), I have the line around 8 so, I will take a chance they get the extra 2 for the cover.