Wednesday Picks

[Hoops]

CBB: 28-34 (-49.9 units)
Sides: 26-31 (-47.9 units)
Totals: 2-1 (+4 units)
Moneylines: 0-2 (-6 units)

**5 units**
Houston -5.5
Ball St +15.5
Siena -2.5
Marquette +3.5

Waiting for line movement on a few games that will hopefully go the way I want..

 

[pacerfan]

Hoops..

Would you go as high as 7 on houston?

 

[Riviman]

I layed the -7 with Houston. I think game is a different favorite spot then the others. Houston is a relatively small dog compared to the other 2 Charminade games. Houston has played tough for 40 minutes, relentlessly play on the boards. If they get a win here I think it will be one where they pullaway in the end, not a game where they play out the string in the end like the other 2 backdoor covers. Just a opinion.

 

[Hoops]

Bumping-up Ball St play to 10 units and moneyline..

**10 units**
Ball St +15.5

**5 units**
Ball St (+1000)

They beat Kansas, destroyed UCLA..I honestly don't see why they don't have a decent chance of beating Duke. Those two wins have been far from the 'flukey' variety. Beat Kansas even after their best player, Smith, fouled out with 4 minutes to go. Made UCLA look like they didn't belong on the same court with them in the second half last night. Sometimes with mid-major teams you have a player or two in the starting lineup that can be looked on as a 'weak' link, or not anywhere near the caliber of the higher level programs. Certainly not the case with Ball State. Jackson has been the best player in the tournament thus far. Smith isn't far behind. Jones is solid underneath as a shot-blocker and rebounder. McCollum does a very good job handling the ball and running the team. Williams is explosive on the wing. As quick as Duhon and Williams are for Duke, Jackson and Williams are going to be just as hard for them to contain the way they are playing. Watching them last night, you could see the confidence oozing out of Ball State. They had that proverbial look in their eyes that they were in this tournament to take care of business..not settle for some 5th place consolation game. Duke won convincingly yesterday, but still struggled the first 15 minutes or so before going on a huge run to finish the first half. Needless to say, they were fortunate to beat Seton Hall and I think Ball St offers more of a challenge than the Hall, as they are much better balanced on both ends of the court. Duke's free throw shooting continues to be their Achilles heel..under 60% so far...Duhon isn't at 100%..if he doesn't play significant minutes they have to rely on two relatively inexperienced players, Horvath and Ewing...Williams looks a tad rusty...and I see either him or Boozer in early foul trouble. I'm not a Duke 'hater' like many on the forums profess to be..they are a great team and will be right there at the end of the year once again, but Ball St is having on of those 'runs' right now and I think they make it three straight shockers in a row.

Good Luck!

 

[neverteaseit]

i couldn't agree more.duke has looked very shaky and bsu is playing great team ball. if they play like they did last night they can beat duke. bsu should be ranked when this tourney ends regardles of the outcome tonight, they have looked solid from top to bottom and are a scoring machine. i am playing the m.l. and the points also. if they can control williams and dunleavy they will win. williams has not looked great anyway so this is a great spot for a big underdog. gl

 

[Notebook]

Hey Hoops,

Do you know how deep Ball St goes off of their bench? I would think with both teams playing their 3rd game in as many days, that the bench would play more of a role than normal in this game. I agree that starting 5 vs starting 5, Ball St matches up with them but I'm not sure the subs can get it done when called upon. I guess if they are close late in the game and the starters are beginning to tire (assuming they don't go to their bench very much), they might have to rely on that emotional edge to carry them home. Also, on this note, Coach K may call on that full court press early and often to try and wear them out.

 

[Riviman]

Iactually think this isa greatspot for Duke. Theyalways come to play and are prepared fopr their opponent. Kansas early in the season are dogs as well as UCLA, they always play poorly out of the gate. Duke seems to always handle a second tier school. They have had close ones in tournaments,but they are normally tougher schools, like when they lost to Cincy a couple of years back in this Tourney, but Cincy was in the top 3 in the country at that time. I am usually wrong , but I feel Duke will be ready for this team , and this team has had 2 big wins already, think they get overwhelmed in this game and Duke blows them out.

 

[Hoops]

Notebook- Bench certainly not Duke's strong suit either. Both will go 7 deep, 8 if needed..nothing much after that. I don't think it would be wise for Duke to press them...UCLA's vaunted press was torched last night and Ball St only committed 3 turnovers against it.

 

[double down]

Dunleavy hurt his foot/ankle last night early in 2nd half...he did return...but, having suffered similar injuries of this sort...The next day is the worst...I like Ball State anyway...but this may be a factor.

 

[Tman]

Hoops, if you don't mind me asking, which book offers the higher spread moneylines? I have 3 offshores but none have the moneyline if the spread is that high. Thanks in advance! Good luck

 

[Hoops]

Tman- I would strongly suggest Olympic for those types of moneylines. Good luck tonight.

 

[snoozing]

Hoops, you talked me into Ball St. I was leaning heavily toward Houston and you simply pushed me over but you have totally convinced me on BS: I really thought that after the K & UCLA games the Man would expect a rush to play BS so I was staying away.

Guess if I lose I can blame you.

Thanks,
Bill

 

[Hoops]

Snoozing- No problem, I certainly take the blame.

Adding..

**5 units**
Kansas -6.5 (2nd Half)

Will cutdown on turnovers..continue to control the glass..Hall relying way too much on the 3-ball..legs get tired in the second half, those won't be dropping-in..

 

[Fritz]

Hey Notebook, you have to remember they are playing on a highschool court. Depth is very important but playing on a smaller court is a huge factor. Playing on a smaller court also makes it easier to guard on defense. I've playing dogs the whole tourn will continue with Ball St. and with Hoops having it with a 10 unit play makes me smile

 

[double down]

That was very funny..if you were joking

The basketball court is no smaller than a regular arena...

If you weren't kidding...I could see where you would think this..it does appear smaller.

 

[iuod]

i've been there. the floor is smaller.

 

[loophole]

don't know anything about this court but somewhere in my mind i believe there is some play in the regulation dimensions of the playing court

 

[hellah10]

This is sweet...the MAC is getting crazy respect...I love it.

 

[Hoops]

Adding..

**5 units**
Fresno St +3.5
Georgia Southern +7.5

 

[Notebook]

This Ball St/Duke line has been all over the place today. It just shot up from 15 to 16.5. I am going to take Ball St; just don't know if I should wait to see if line rises anymore...