Wednesday: Play of the Day

[superbook]

Straight up winner on small dog Northern Illinois makes my Play of the Day record:

9-5-2

Sides were 2-3 with MAAC/MAC winners with Marist and Ohio University

Today's play:

St. Bonaventure -4.5

Fordham has a good team this year, but they're still young (starting three freshman) and they don't have the defense to stop the high-scoring offense of the Bonnies. The Bonnies trapping defense will pressure the mistake-prone Rams into a lot of turnovers which St. Bonaventure will turn into easy baskets.

After a couple of big losses at Holy Cross (by 20), at home to Temple (by 11), and at Xavier (by 30), Fordham has played three good games in their L3. The Rams beat UMass in the Bronx and then beat the spread in a losing effort at St. Joe's and won ATS and su at Rhode Island.

Fordham has a great all-freshman backcourt in Smush Parker (the Rams' leading scorer at 16 ppg) and Adrian Walton. Fordham also has some serious size with 6-9 forwards Duke Freeman-McKamey and Michael Haynes and 6-11 360 freshman Glenn Batemon at center.

There's no question that tiny St. Bonaventure will be outrebounded in this game, Fordham is second in the Atlantic 10 in rebounding margin at +3.9. The Bonnies are averaging 29 rpg on the road vs. Fordham's average of 38 at home.

The stats behind my Play of the Day:

Fordham ranks second to last in the Atlantic 10 in scoring defense (77.9 ppg) while St. Bonaventure ranks fifth nationally (and first in the league) in scoring at 85.3 points per game.

Fordham ranks last in the Atlantic 10 in turnover margin (-3.8) while the Bonnies have forced at least 15 turnovers in 14 of their 17 games. St. Bonaventure's turnover margin of +6.1 is the top figure in the Atlantic 10 which they also lead in steals with 10 per game.

The Bonnies are first in the Atlantic 10 in free throw average at 75% while Fordham ranks last at 58%.

St. Bonaventure leads the league in hitting 39% of their shots from behind the arc. They're #1 in the country with their average of 11.4 3's per game.

Believe it or not, the Bonnie backcourt of JR Bremer and Marques Green are scoring more ppg than Williams and Duhon and handing off more assists than Bell and Sidney.

The two teams split their games last year with Fordham winning at home by 76-67. The difference in that game was that the Bonnies allowed Fordham to shoot 57% from the field which won't happen this year with the trapping defense instilled by first year coach Jan Van Breda Kolff.

And last but not least, St. Bonaventure is 6-3 ATS on the road including 2-0 in 2002.

 

[superbook]

If any of you have books which offer Second Half lines, here's a great play:

Loyola-Chicago if losing by more than 5 at the half to Butler

Butler is at home where they just lost by one point to Milwaukee-Wisconsin last Saturday night.

Butler has won the last seven meetings with Loyola-Chicago and this is a match-up of the top two teams in the Horizon conference. Butler is the defending champion for the last 2 years but has gotten off to a slow 3-3 start in league play while Loyola was 6-5 in nonconference games and is now 6-0 in league games.

I can almost guarantee you that Butler will come out strong in this one because they're pissed off over last week's loss and they want to show the new kid on the block that they're still the king.

So this is why this is such a great play:

Loyola-Chicago is averaging 42.2 points in the second half vs only 33.9 for the first half.

Loyola is 7-1 ATS on the road this year, whereas Butler is just 3-3 ATS at home.

The line on this game is currently 15, so if Butler is up by 10 at the half you'll get some nice points for Loyola in the second half.

gl

 

[Buckman]

SB I was looking at this one.....I really like Loyola in this one.....Iowa was pissed off last night and look what happened to them they can't even cover against a team with only 7 decent players and 2 of them fouled out......15 pts seems like a lot.....I think Butler wins the game (maybe) but not by 15......:shrug:

 

[superbook]

Buckman --

Originally I was looking at Loyola as my POD but Sagerin ratings make the line at Butler -11.

IMO that's too close to 15 to warrant a play, especially as Butler desperately needs to win this game if they want to repeat as league champion. And they're also coming off a loss at home, I'll stay off of this one.

But I really like the Second Half play.

 

[TJBELL]

superbook...

superbook...

Nice call on N ill!!!! had them on the ML and was also on Mairist + (great pickin' with the "second rate teams") that Vegas hasn't capped to well yet!!

go St BON 2 nite!!! no whammies!! TOM

 

[nighthorse]

Haven't checked their ATS record(just saw it, nevermind), but the Bonnies have made me money this year (And that ain't easy). Athletically, their two steps ahead of Fordham. On their best day, can run Fordham out of the gym. gtla......

 

[Phil Turcotte]

SB - can you explain if you can the use of the Sagerin ratings to me? Im usually more of an NBA player, but after finding a couple of gems here the last couple nights, I want to put a little more knowledge in my head. Thanks.

 

[superbook]

Phil --

A guy named Jeff Sagerin has a rating system which ranks all division one teams on a 1-100 points system. A link to the site is under "Resources" and "NCAABB" above on this page.

He has several sets of numbers, his "Pure Points" most accurately predict who's going to win. It takes about two minutes to calculate and is where I start my capping. I start with 5-10 games that I like based on the teams and then I look at their Sagerin ratings and check them out on covers. After that I try to narrow the field to one POD.

In terms of the Sagerin rating on the Butler game, it's as easy as:

Butler = 83.72 + 4.28 (home advantage)
Loyola-Chicago = 76.80

The difference = 11.20

Which means Butler should be favored by 11.2 points. The home advantage of 4.28 is the same for all teams.

There are arguments pro and against Sagerin ratings, but to me they're good as a starting guide to my capping. Obviously the Pit is worth more than 4.28 to New Mexico than to a team like St. Mary's which is lucky to get 500 fans but these ratings are pretty good and IMO their accuracy gets better later in the season.


Hope this helps.

 

[superbook]

Adding as a regular play:

Bowling Green -7.5


To those who like Loyola-Chicago:

If this is such a good play why has the line gone from Butler -14 to -16?:nono:

 

[ironlock]

Actually, the line opened at 15, and after brief stint @ 16, now sits @ 14.5.....also, not all line moves should be feared.....only when it moves everywhere, at the same exact time.

Also, you are correct in saying when it looks too good, it is usually....but any real student can figure that there are many reasons to play Butler here, some of which you have already pointed out..., I simply believe that Butler can still act tough, be mad about losing its last game, or whatever, and still win by less than 15.....

You have also been a bit decieving in your pro-butler points, you state that they have won the last six, but fail to point out that loyola covered 5 of those 7....

Loyola has a 33.2 to 29.2 rebounding edge...
Loyola is 7-1 ats on the road.
Butler has lost two of thier last three home games to teams comparable, if not worse than Loyola (in fact, Loyola knocked off Wisc-Mil on the road), the win came against resident powerhouse wisconsin GB)

Like I said, there are many justifications for Butler here, they have consitently covered following a loss, they have to be motivated facing the conference leader, Loyolay has weak defensive numbers on the road...etc...

15 is simply alot of points to be giving a team as good as Loyola...

Do I think this is a lock, hell no, just a play that will win 60% of the time....

Also, how can you infer that Loyola is a sucker play out of one side of your mouth, while posting a second half play on Loyola "as long as they are down five".....the line is simply going to be 15 minus Butler's halftime lead, give or take a few..????????, they cover the second half, they cover the game, unless its a blowout at half.......

Good Luck to you...

 

[Nickelback]

Superbook,

Every respectable source that I've encountered still shows the line at 15. . . two book are at 14.5. Not sure where you have gotten your line change for the Loyola Chicago game. No matter. . . if others think Butler is such a great play, let them!

 

[Phil Turcotte]

SB, do you still like this game? I just found the Bonnies at -3.

-P

 

[superbook]

Phil --

I'm a simple man, my only goal in handicapping is to hit 65%.

And despite a modest line move I believe that the Bonnies have a 65% or better chance of beating the number for all of the reasons stated above. As Fletcher stated in a post last night, a team that can't hit free throws is undisciplined, and the Bonnies' pressing defense should break the game wide open in the second half.

Adding as a regular play:

Marshall -2