wednesday plays, writeups, and a question.....

gman2

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before i post some plays/thoughts on some games, got a question. figure with the thousands of viewers on this forum- might be able to find one or two guys to help me out. does anyone here go to oklahoma university? if so, could you drop me a line at gman2@gatorzone.com. got sort of an off the wall request/question, and help would be appreciated.

as far as plays go, played these for wednesday:

2* charlotte (+6) over louisville
2* charlotte moneyline (+210)
2* buffalo (pk) over marshall
2* tennessee (+4.5) over kentucky
2* nwestern moneyline (+155) over iowa

considered miami (oh) and bradley as well, but passed.

really feel like charlotte/louisville are even teams. im a big pitino fan and hes got louisville playing great ball- but i think theyre really overvalued right now. to lay 6 points of conference road chalk vs a program that is always tough as balls as home- thats not easy. not to mention louisville isnt used to this role- where theyre EXPECTED to win on the road in conference. different mindset- and one that cards might struggle with early. charlotte spread and moneyline make sense here.

one thing ive learned with marshall over the last two or three years is if you want to bet on them- eliminate half their games right away and only consider them at home. because no matter how much talent theyve got (and theyve had A TON of it the last few years), they are terrible on the road and a complete moneyburner. not to mention buffalo absolutely destroyed them in buffalo last year in this same role (pick-type game). you look at the roster and its tough to figure out why marshall isnt better than they are- and its because they just cant win on the road consistently. until proven otherwise- play on em at home and look to fade em on the road is my approach.

vols had sort of a go-through-the-motions effort last saturday vs new mexico, but i think that was a little expected, given the lookahead to this game. rivalry and conference home dog make sense here, especially with slay playing out of his mind right now. gonna be a real physical game and one that should stay tight the whole way.

northwestern/iowa should be an ugly ugly game where the game might as well be the first team to 60 wins, because both teams are offensive nightmares- but iowa laying road chalk is a little much here. cats might not get many big ten wins this season, but this is definitely a winnable game for them.

may play miami (oh) if kent somehow goes to being a favorite (right now im seeing mia -1 and/or pick). line says miami or nothing. a one-loss team getting points from a 4-7 team is gonna be real appealing to the public. but one thing thats worth noting is schedule strength. ive always respected charlie coles because he doesnt pu$$y-foot around scheduling tough teams. kent state hasnt played anyone this year outside of boston college and st bonny, whereas miami has played a very very tough schedule to get ready for conference play.

gl tonight fellas
 

Valuist

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Gman-

Why do you suppose the home road dichotemy is so big for Marshall? Seems that way for most of the MAC teams. I know MAC teams bus to the majority of their games and I think that has something to do with it. Home court is also very big in the Horizon League and I believe those teams bus to most games.
 

gman2

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valuist-
thats a good question. like you said, the mac has had a reputation for being a "home-strong conference", where even the upper echelon teams fail on the road often.

why that is- i really dont know. geographically speaking- the longest travel would be marshall (from w.virg) to northern illinois. i can see that being a tough trip. but otheriwise- all of the other schools are in very close proximity. the whole conference is basically in two states (ohio and michigan)

the crowds are a little above average. certain teams draw real well, whereas others lag behind in attendance.

as far as marshall hoops specifically, theyre kind of like the ucla of the mac. all the talent in the world, but they suffer some of the most inexplicable losses youll see. they had so much talent the last few yeats and did absolutely nothing with it.
 

gman2

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hellas- thx for the triplett article. good to see him play through his early struggles. i kinda think the hype might have bothered him a little. he was expected to come in and dominate right away and it didnt happen. now hes settling in and playing real well. if rockets had this production last year, theyd have been very dangerous. but thats all part of maturing
 

gman2

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line movement on ohio game is ridiculous. gonna take a shot on a reduced line:

1 unit....ohio university (-4.5)
 

gman2

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wise move hellah. this game has ohio by 5 or 6 written all over it. hope you nail the middle. out of principle alone, had to try bobcats on shaved line at home.

gl
 

gman2

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poor start to the night. 2-4.

added this final one:

2* ucla (-5.5)

rare chalk, but should cash
 
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