Wednesday Plays. . .

[Nickelback]

Early thoughts for tonight as my book does not post lines until morning.

First, I wanted to explain the trend again that I mentioned yesterday in that taking unranked home favorites over ranked road dogs is one of the most solid ATS trends around and it makes sense. Vegas simply knows more than those who vote for the polls! The public will ride the ranked road dog getting points as there appears to be value. On Tuesday, the trend went 3 and 0 with St Johns (yes, I took Miami despite the trend), Arkansas, and Indiana all covered.

Unfortunately, there isn't a game that fits this trend for Wednesday, but still some value:

Georgia getting 14 over Kentucky,

I reccommend jumping on this line early as I cannot see this line staying above 12. Georgia is a team that can compete with Kentucky on their floor and getting 10+ points is extremely valuable IMO.

Notre Dame laying 7 over West Virginia,

The Irish are much better on both sides of the ball. . . still have some research left on this game.

Dayton laying 11 over GW,

I expect most to jump all over GW getting 10+ in this matchup. My first reaction was that GW might be the play until I looked into both teams and realized that Dayton will have a nice advantage on the boards. GW will have to have an incredible shooting performance in order to stay in this game.

Ole Miss playing 7.5 over Auburn,

Another game that I still have research to do, but looking like Ole Miss is a solid play. Auburn has only played a single road game which was a loss at Rutgers.

Memphis laying 5 over TCU,

TCU simply does not play any defense. Memphis should be able to score at will and this might be Wagner's best offensive performance of the year. Memphis will have a double digit lead by the half.

Still considering Missouri

Decided to stay away from the Florida/Tennessee game as the Vols are just as much a mystery as they were last year. They have the talent to win this game at home, but will they play a smart or stupid game? You never know what you're gonna get with this team!

Final picks tomorrow morning. . .

 

[Innavation]

something else to consider is home teams covering--especially the ESPN games during the week. Students know it is a TV game and they pack the house, Refs are humans too.--they can be swayed by the crowd.

 

[Nickelback]

Good point Innavation,

Anybody who saw the New Mexico/Gonzaga game can understand what you're saying!

I feel that the easiest lines to get caught up in are road favorites laying 7 or less points. In the past, I estimate that maybe 70% of my plays would involve taking road favorites because I would feel that the line is too low and home court advantage really isn't THAT big of a deal (may sound familiar to many cappers here at MadJacks. . . especially those who are relatively new to sports betting). Well, I've learned since then. I will usually give home teams the benefit of the doubt and lay off the road favorites unless I find overwhelming evidence to take the road team. I've found that this usually corrects my tendancy.

 

[Nickelback]

Plays that I've already made:

Georgia taking 14.5. . . this has play of the year status written all over it as far as I'm concerned. However, I've decided to exercize some money management and instead play the Dogs for "only" a very strong wager.

Notre Dame laying 7. . . if this line was around 10, I would consider laying off as West Virginia will do everything in their power to keep the game respectable at home. Unfortunately, Notre Dame is simply a much better team in all phases. Can't see them losing and am willing to lay the 7 and take my chances.

Mississippi laying 7. . . many cappers will lay off this line because a defensive team like Ole Miss should not be giving up seven. . . even at home right? Nevermind the fact that Auburn is a poor shooting team (especially free throws where they do not even hit sixty percent) and Miss should be able to shut them down.

Dayton laying 11.5. . . caught the hook in the morning as I wasn't able to play the line last night. Doesn't matter to me! Several will play GW thinking they are getting a gift. . .unfortunately GW does not have anybody to matchup against the Flyers under the basket. They will need a VERY hot shooting performance from their guards in order to have a chance in this one.

Still looking at others, but I absolutely love these and have already taken the lines as indicated.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding a couple small plays:

Texas Tech over A+M
Illinois over Purdue

playing these small mostly because they are road favorites and look too easy. . . which means they probably are but I'll bite and hope for at least a split.

 

[Nickelback]

Gonna add one additional point regarding Georgia/Kentucky, then leave it alone.

Cappers need to remember that Kentucky has had a lot of national exposure so far this season with huge games against Indiana and Duke. Vegas adjusts the line a little for this reason alone. Hardly anybody knows about Georgia because they haven't had any national coverage unless you think the late game against Arkansas State on CNNSI qualifies!

I really hope that many of you take advantage of this line because no matter what happens (as anything can happen in college hoops), this line is flat out off by at least 5 points. Kentucky is in for a very tough game tonight and Georgia certainly has a shot at the upset.

 

[superbook]

Kentucky is in for a very tough game tonight and Georgia certainly has a shot at the upset.

Good call buddy. We should have played the moneyline.

 

[Nickelback]

Well, a great night overall since I had a huge play on Georgia. . . would have been nice to have won a couple others besides Dayton, but that's the way it goes.

Superbook,

Unfortunately, my book didn't have a ML for Georgia or else I would have played it a little! Still can't believe the line for this game and I wish I would have put more on it than I did, but I feel that it would just lead to increased betting down the road and may hurt me more than help. Still a great win and WATCH OUT cause when you and I are on the same side of big games, we haven't had a problem cashing in (knock on wood!).