Wednesday Projected Scores

[SingleMalt]

Yesterday was a good day at 6-3...Lots of games today and a lot of picks hit the criteria of difference of 4 or more on the line and 6 or more on the total...

Ford 56
Temple 65

GTech 74
UNC 80

Clemson 67
FSU 78

Richmond 64
Dayton 75

GW 82
StBon 65

KentSt 66
WMich 72

Buff 70
Akron 71

BGSU 71
EMich 74

CMich 66
Miami 70

BallSt 65
Toledo 73

NW 56
Mich 62

Cinci 77
ECar 62

ODom 71
TowSt 66

Hofstra 66
NCWilm 65

WillMary 65
JMad 59

Vandy 70
Kenty 78

Creig 68
IndiSt 62

Drex 64
VAComm 68

GMason 73
Delaware 66

Duq 64
X 76

MiamiFla 73
Virginia 78

WiscMil 73
YSU 64

Purdue 64
Minn 85

Kansas 67
ISU 62

TTech 72
KSU 74

Tex 75
TexAM 78

UMass 68
StJ 63

Fla 81
Aub 68

SCar 74
LSU 65

MissSt 77
Tenn 70

Geo 59
Miss 70

Bradley 66
WichSt 73

SWMizzSt 64
NIowa 76

Tulane 65
TCU 72

SIll 68
Evan 72

Ohio 73
N Ill 69

NCChar 70
UAB 81

PennSt 58
Ill 86

Neb 68
Col 71

Rider 67
Penn 70

Marist 73
LoyMaryland 67

Fairfield 63
Siena 62

UTEP 72
Nevada 68

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[SingleMalt]

picks

picks

Some totals are not up yet but there are 32 plays so far...

CMich +14
Cinci -10'
FSU -4
FSU Over 137'
Fordham +15
StBonn +21
Gtech +11
GTech Under 167'
Towson St +10'
Dayton -4
Rider +10
Kentucky Over 137
Will&Mary +4
Will&Mary Under 131'
IndiSt Over 122
GMason -2'
Virginia Over 144'
YoungstownSt +13
Florida -5
UMass +7'
MissSt -3
Minn -9
SCar -1'
TexAM +4
KSU +3
Ohio +4'
Evansville +2'
NIowa -7
Tulane +12'
UAB -3'
UTEP +1

A ton of plays...don't know if this helps anyone but hopefully someone can get something out of my number crunching.

GL to ALL

 

[Master Capper]

what are you basing your projected scores on?

 

[SingleMalt]

I'm not using a formula per se, but rather looking at how a team scores and defends on the road or at home and more importantly, the last 4 to 5 games. While I look at location to see how a team has been playing at home or away, I feel that each game leads into the next regardless of location. For example, if a team has played 3 straight on the road and have scored 62, 58 and 64 for those games, even if they are now playing at home and average 83 at home, I will project them to be below that home average number. Other factors such as playing cupcakes or playing a Princeton-style team will be taken into consideration. Also, if a team plays horrible defense on the road, I'll put the home team near the top of their home scoring.

As you can see, these are subjective scores but I still find it interesting that there are a number of games where my scores are very close to the number and total. So far, this method has worked better for me than looking at the teams and the line and letting personal biases get in the way (like wanting to bet against Mike Davis every chance I get).

GL to ALL