Here is some of the stuff I was talking about:
I found this article at covers, and although most of the articles have little or no value, I found this one interestingf and useful to those who just started betting Hockey. Also it inspired me to dig up some numbers of my own which i will post with my selections.
JT
SneaksAmidst all the NFL, NCF and MLB action, the National Hockey League has kicked off its? 2001-02 campaign. As we head into Week 4 of the 'Coolest Game on Earth', gamblers who like to play the trends are hard pressed to find any solid backing for their picks.
Working with the user-friendly Covers.com data base, I thought it would be interesting to analyze a few of the most common trends 'cappers use when looking at hockey.
Please note all the information I crunched is gathered from results of the current season up to Oct. 23. That represents a total of 138 games.
Many people enjoy playing 'totals,' and in some instances you can find some good trends. Also, many gamblers play the 'totals' when a star player is out, or when the backup goalie gets the start.
Here are this season's 'over/under' records at various goal totals:
When the 'total' is set at 5, the 'under' is 22-22-10.
When the 'total' is set at 5.5, the 'under' is 42-34
When the 'total' is set at 6, the 'under' is 4-3-1.
In all 138 games, the 'under' is 68-59-11. (49.3 percent)
There's obviously no solid trend but you can see something developing on the 5.5 'total', where the total went 'under' 55 percent of the time. Keep in mind that with the half point, the push is eliminated. Therefore, the game has to go one way or the other.
Puckline: While the majority of hockey games are set as a pick, there is the odd occasion when the book will give (or take) goals away from a team. This works much like the spread in football, and usually only occurs when a hot team is playing against a basement dweller.
The results in games where a puckline has been set are:
Home team is 0-3 ATS (against the spread) when the sports book places them as a -1.5 favorite.
Home team is 1-0 ATS when the sports book places them as a +1.5 dog.
*Note: When a sports book lists a team as a 1.5 favorite, that team has to win by two goals to cover the spread.
Home Ice Advantage: Home ice really hasn?t shown any advantage thus far. The home team is 64-54-20 SU (straight up), meaning you win or push 61 percent of the time. Against the spread, home teams are 62-57-19, meaning you win or push 59 percent of the time.
When you look at the fact home teams are generally so expensive to buy (anywhere between -120 to -160), simply picking the home team is not recommended, and sooner or later you'll find yourself losing more money than you gain. Your bankroll will be diminishing faster than you can place your bets.
Visiting Team: In most cases this is where you will find your best ?value? bets. Although the visiting teams have a losing record this season, you can take it one step further. If you are able to get a good read on the offensive production of the visiting team you can increase your odds of winning dramatically.
For example, if a team averages two goals or fewer on the road, the combined record is 6-52-14 SU, and 7-54-11 ATS. The under is 51-15-6 in these games.
If the team averages three or more goals on the road, the combined record is 48-12-6 SU, and 50-11-5 ATS. The over is 44-17-5 in these games.
On the flip side of the coin, if a team averages two or fewer goals at home, their combined record is, 14-38-14 SU, and 13-39-14 ATS. The under is 51-10-5 in these games.
If a team averages three or more goals at home, their combined record is 50-16-6 SU, and 49-18-5 ATS. The over is 49-17-6 in these games.
So, after all my hard work, I have determined the trends are, at best, subtle this early in the NHL season. Sorry folks but it seems hockey, like most other sports, requires the handicapping of each individual matchup. Keep an eye open for the values and get the most out of your bankroll.
Some key factors I have found helpful over the years:
Note the starting goalie.
Look for the number of days rest between games (this can be found at Covers.com).
Watch for any late scratches of key players.
Evaluate each team's recent games to get a feel for performance.
Note the power play and penalty kill statistics for each squad.
With these variables in mind, determine your best bet(s), and you?ll enjoy a profitable season.