Wednesday Pucks

[JT Sneaks]

Here is the recap and some other stuff.


Recap:

One Unit Selection:
LN: 1-0, +1.00
YTD: 2-0, +2.00

Two Unit Selection:
LN:1-0-1, +2.00
YTD:5-4-1, +4.40

Three Unit Selection:
LN:2-0, +6.00
YTD:2-1, +1.20

Four unit Selection:
LN:
YTD:

Overall:
LN:4-0-1, +9.00
YTD:9-5-1, +7.60


Stuff coming up soon.

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Here is some of the stuff I was talking about:

I found this article at covers, and although most of the articles have little or no value, I found this one interestingf and useful to those who just started betting Hockey. Also it inspired me to dig up some numbers of my own which i will post with my selections.

JT

SneaksAmidst all the NFL, NCF and MLB action, the National Hockey League has kicked off its? 2001-02 campaign. As we head into Week 4 of the 'Coolest Game on Earth', gamblers who like to play the trends are hard pressed to find any solid backing for their picks.

Working with the user-friendly Covers.com data base, I thought it would be interesting to analyze a few of the most common trends 'cappers use when looking at hockey.

Please note all the information I crunched is gathered from results of the current season up to Oct. 23. That represents a total of 138 games.

Many people enjoy playing 'totals,' and in some instances you can find some good trends. Also, many gamblers play the 'totals' when a star player is out, or when the backup goalie gets the start.

Here are this season's 'over/under' records at various goal totals:

When the 'total' is set at 5, the 'under' is 22-22-10.
When the 'total' is set at 5.5, the 'under' is 42-34
When the 'total' is set at 6, the 'under' is 4-3-1.
In all 138 games, the 'under' is 68-59-11. (49.3 percent)
There's obviously no solid trend but you can see something developing on the 5.5 'total', where the total went 'under' 55 percent of the time. Keep in mind that with the half point, the push is eliminated. Therefore, the game has to go one way or the other.

Puckline: While the majority of hockey games are set as a pick, there is the odd occasion when the book will give (or take) goals away from a team. This works much like the spread in football, and usually only occurs when a hot team is playing against a basement dweller.

The results in games where a puckline has been set are:

Home team is 0-3 ATS (against the spread) when the sports book places them as a -1.5 favorite.
Home team is 1-0 ATS when the sports book places them as a +1.5 dog.
*Note: When a sports book lists a team as a 1.5 favorite, that team has to win by two goals to cover the spread.

Home Ice Advantage: Home ice really hasn?t shown any advantage thus far. The home team is 64-54-20 SU (straight up), meaning you win or push 61 percent of the time. Against the spread, home teams are 62-57-19, meaning you win or push 59 percent of the time.

When you look at the fact home teams are generally so expensive to buy (anywhere between -120 to -160), simply picking the home team is not recommended, and sooner or later you'll find yourself losing more money than you gain. Your bankroll will be diminishing faster than you can place your bets.

Visiting Team: In most cases this is where you will find your best ?value? bets. Although the visiting teams have a losing record this season, you can take it one step further. If you are able to get a good read on the offensive production of the visiting team you can increase your odds of winning dramatically.

For example, if a team averages two goals or fewer on the road, the combined record is 6-52-14 SU, and 7-54-11 ATS. The under is 51-15-6 in these games.

If the team averages three or more goals on the road, the combined record is 48-12-6 SU, and 50-11-5 ATS. The over is 44-17-5 in these games.

On the flip side of the coin, if a team averages two or fewer goals at home, their combined record is, 14-38-14 SU, and 13-39-14 ATS. The under is 51-10-5 in these games.

If a team averages three or more goals at home, their combined record is 50-16-6 SU, and 49-18-5 ATS. The over is 49-17-6 in these games.

So, after all my hard work, I have determined the trends are, at best, subtle this early in the NHL season. Sorry folks but it seems hockey, like most other sports, requires the handicapping of each individual matchup. Keep an eye open for the values and get the most out of your bankroll.

Some key factors I have found helpful over the years:

Note the starting goalie.
Look for the number of days rest between games (this can be found at Covers.com).
Watch for any late scratches of key players.
Evaluate each team's recent games to get a feel for performance.
Note the power play and penalty kill statistics for each squad.
With these variables in mind, determine your best bet(s), and you?ll enjoy a profitable season.

 

[Noclue#1]

Thanks for the info JT!

It will be interesting to look at those same stats at the all-star break to see any trends developing!

 

[JT Sneaks]

Tonight's Plays:

Info to follow

One Unit Selection:
Florida +1/2 +105
Carolina/Minnesota Under 5 -120

Two Unit Selection:
Was/Florida Under 5.5 +105
Anaheim +1/2 +100

Three Unit Selection:
Dallas - 1/2 / -130


Four unit Selection:
None

JT

Sneaks

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Sneaks. Trade in the Chuck Taylors for some nice ice skates tonite. GL, man.

As for some of that covers info, just wanted to make a quick comment. All that conditional probability data naturally looks good on paper. ie, if team averages less than 2 goals per gm on the road, they're an 80% go against or whatever. The key is the conditional factor. Of course, teams that haven't scored squat on the road will have a poor YTD road record. But that doesn't mean it's predictive. It doesn't mean that u can necessarily continue to go against these tms on the road for an 80% clip. Just my two cents.

 

[a-line]

What can i say..SUPERTHANKS!Just the information what i am looking for!!!

------------------
may the force be with us

 

[JT Sneaks]

I am pressed for time tonight, but look for some info posted about 30 mins. before gametime for the stars and the pens.


JT

Sneaks

 

[yyz]

Nice work, Sneaker!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

JT Sneaks, as always, thanks for your informative posts...!!!

T-VIG

 

[JT Sneaks]

Okay I have a few minutes for a comment or two....

First on the article I posted from Covers, this was mainly for new hockey cappers to see this

Some key factors I have found helpful over the years:

Note the starting goalie.
Look for the number of days rest between games (this can be found at Covers.com).
Watch for any late scratches of key players.
Evaluate each team's recent games to get a feel for performance.
Note the power play and penalty kill statistics for each squad.
With these variables in mind, determine your best bet(s), and you?ll enjoy a profitable season.

Some of the other trends listed in this article have to be looked at very closely as noted by Chucky. Check his response out as it makes alot of sense and I agree with it 100% Also do not be afraid to do your own homework in identifying trends, but give some reasoning behind it.

For example I broke open the book on the short season so far, and looked at teams that play-back-to-back in consecutive days.

Being on Buffalo with most of the others in this forum, I had mentioned and so did others that the sharks may be tired off of back to back nights so I looked into the NHL as a whole.

I also tried to narrow it down a bit to get a better number, so I looked at this trend. Any NHL team playing back-to-back games on consecutive nights, when the second game is on the road, that team is 8-14-2
Now does that mean take every team in this position? No but it should keep you eyes open to possible situations. Reasoning I think this trend does have some validation, is due to earlier in the year teams may not have the conditioning to play back to back, and lose some luster by going on the road as well.

Just a thought, but we do have three teams playing back-to-back in consecutive nights and two of them are on the road.

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Okay now I will see if I can give some reaoning behind the plays:

Dallas VS Pittsburgh


First question on everyone's mind is will Mario play? I say yes, he announced at the start of the season he wanted to play as many games as possible in front of the home crown, and national television will only push him to play even more. He still wants to sell tickets. Take Wednesday's game against the Stars, for example. Lemieux and his struggling (3-5-0) Penguins were in Atlanta on Tuesday night in need of a victory. That meant Lemieux, who has said he would like to avoid playing back-to-back nights to rest his weary back and wonky hip, had to make a tough decision. Should he play in Atlanta and try to take the safe points or should he wait to play against Dallas, where the game might be a little tougher?

Wednesday's game is at home, and Lemieux has said he will try to play in front of his ticket-buying public as much as possible. What's more, the Wednesday game is being nationally televised on ESPN, so there had to be at least implied pressure from the league and the television network to be a good little promoter.

That created a real dilemma, but Lemieux decided to play Tuesday. He had a goal, an assist and a team-high 11 shots and helped the Penguins to a key 4-2 victory.

I think this may actualy be a plus for the stars if he does come back as it gives the stars an edge on the offense as when Mario hurts he seems to play less and less on the defensive side of the ice.

The real boost by a returning injured star will be the return of Modano tonight for the stars, also look for C Joe Nieuwendyk to get some time on the ice which will help the stars in Pittsburgh tonight.

The real edge in this game tonight is in the special teams. Dallas ha the big edge
on special teams with a special teams rating (pp %
plus penalty killing %) of 107.2 to 96.2 for
Pittsburgh.
Which means the stars take advantage of penalties when they have the opportunity.
I also spoke earlier of back-to-back games on consecutive nights, and although Pittsburgh does not fit the trend (they are at home), this is the first time they have done this all year, and the first time mario will do it. Finally trend wise the pens are just 1-6-2 in the last nine against the stars, to include 0-4 in the last four. Also Belfour has just gotten over the flu, and I look for him to have a strong performance tonight.

Final Dallas 4 Pittsburgh 1

JT

Sneaks

 

[JT Sneaks]

Adding

One Unit Selection:
Parlay: Minn -130
Florida + 1/2 +105

Two Unit Selection:
Minnesota -130

Like Chenker hate to go against some good cappers here, but the edge in my book is to the wild.

JT

Sneaks