Wednesday Servcie Plays 10-22-08
- Thread starter Danny Dice
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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Boston at TAMPA BAY (-140, series)
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
So the stage is set, and as much as I would love to see my boy Shane Victorino win a World Series ring after he personally hoisted the Phillies on his shoulders in the National League playoffs, I just don't believe it's going to happen because of three glaring reasons:
Pitching, home-field advantage and Interleague play.
Let's work backward ...
The Rays were 12-6 against the senior circuit after an 11-4 run to close out interleague play. And that included a three-game sweep against the Cubs in June.
On the other hand, the Phils were a disappointing 4-11 against the American League, including a 2-7 skid against three of the best-hitting teams on the junior circuit - Boston, Texas and the Angels. And though they didn't meet this season, the Phils are a team Tampa has handled over the years with a 10-5 mark against them.
With Tampa getting to host the series to its advantage, I doubt Philadelphia will be able to steal home-field advantage; and even if it does, there's no reason to believe the Rays can't scoot up to Citizens Bank Park and steal one in Philly. Bottom line is the Rays posted the best home record in the majors, and with all the caroms off the catwalks, Tropicana Field is a strong candidate for baseball's first postseason replay.
With the type of pitching Tampa puts on the hill, an aggressive like Philadelphia could be in a lot of trouble. Seriously, who would have thought Matt Garza - a once go-against pitcher - would be named ALCS MVP? You mix in some James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir and this is a dangerous rotation. I'd much rather have that rotation working for us, than the likes of one that includes Brett Myers and 45-year-old Jamie Moyer.
All the elements are there, and this preseason's 200-to-1 longshot is certainly in the right spot to finish the job with a World Series title.
2♦ RAYS IN THE WORLD SERIES
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
So the stage is set, and as much as I would love to see my boy Shane Victorino win a World Series ring after he personally hoisted the Phillies on his shoulders in the National League playoffs, I just don't believe it's going to happen because of three glaring reasons:
Pitching, home-field advantage and Interleague play.
Let's work backward ...
The Rays were 12-6 against the senior circuit after an 11-4 run to close out interleague play. And that included a three-game sweep against the Cubs in June.
On the other hand, the Phils were a disappointing 4-11 against the American League, including a 2-7 skid against three of the best-hitting teams on the junior circuit - Boston, Texas and the Angels. And though they didn't meet this season, the Phils are a team Tampa has handled over the years with a 10-5 mark against them.
With Tampa getting to host the series to its advantage, I doubt Philadelphia will be able to steal home-field advantage; and even if it does, there's no reason to believe the Rays can't scoot up to Citizens Bank Park and steal one in Philly. Bottom line is the Rays posted the best home record in the majors, and with all the caroms off the catwalks, Tropicana Field is a strong candidate for baseball's first postseason replay.
With the type of pitching Tampa puts on the hill, an aggressive like Philadelphia could be in a lot of trouble. Seriously, who would have thought Matt Garza - a once go-against pitcher - would be named ALCS MVP? You mix in some James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir and this is a dangerous rotation. I'd much rather have that rotation working for us, than the likes of one that includes Brett Myers and 45-year-old Jamie Moyer.
All the elements are there, and this preseason's 200-to-1 longshot is certainly in the right spot to finish the job with a World Series title.
2♦ RAYS IN THE WORLD SERIES
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Drew Gordon
1. 100,000♦ Phillies
1. Phillies- First things first, do not over think this play. Cole Hamels is the best pitcher in this series, going 3-0 with a lockdown 1.23 ERA in 3 starts. Rays' Scott Kazmir, on the other hand, has been all over the place this postseason, going 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA in 3 starts. Sure, his last start against Boston was rock-solid, but the start prior, at Tropicana against the Red Sox, was anything but, allowing 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings. Fact of it is, you have to give the edge to the Phillies as far as starting pitching is concerned in Game 1, an obviously looking at the price on the contest, the oddsmakers agree.
Second, while overall the Rays may have an edge with their starting pitching in the series, there's no question the Phillies offense is more dynamic, and that includes vs left-handed starters. Rays were far less effective against southpaws this season, batting .258 against them at the Trop, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Phillies, on the other hand, while batting only .240 on the road against them (but .292 over their last 10 overall) average a hearty 5.2 runs per game against lefties away this season. Kazmir has been hittable, and that much will become clear after tonight.
Then there's the rest vs rust argument, and while there's many different ways to prove either side right, what's more important is the mind-set of this Rays club. They're coming off a draining 7-game series with the Red Sox, and while not a huge factor, I'll take the rested team versus the one that's lost 2 of their last 3 and is coming into this contest with just 2 days rest.
Finally, its tough to argue against the Phillies bullpen, which is 86-0 this year when leading after 8 innings! They've posted an impressive 1.88 ERA throughout the postseason, led by Brad Lidge (1.23 ERA this postseason). Also, relievers Madson, Durbin, and Romero have been excellent. We know we'll get 7 innings from Hamels tonight, and handing the ball off to the Majors best bullpen is a HUGE advantage for the Phillies.
Bottom line, I repeat, do not over think this Game 1 match up. Hamels is the one true stud of this World Series, and he knows (as well as most) that a win here is the key to the Phillies winning the title. Combine him with this Phillies bullpen and you've got a recipe for disaster as far as the Rays offense is concerned. True, they've been rock-solid of late, but not against lefties (batting .245 vs lefties L10 games). In the end, look for the Phillies to ride their ace to a huge Game 1 victory Wednesday night!
Take the Phillies behind Hamels over the Rays and Kazmir as your top-rated play of the day.
1. 100,000♦ Phillies
1. Phillies- First things first, do not over think this play. Cole Hamels is the best pitcher in this series, going 3-0 with a lockdown 1.23 ERA in 3 starts. Rays' Scott Kazmir, on the other hand, has been all over the place this postseason, going 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA in 3 starts. Sure, his last start against Boston was rock-solid, but the start prior, at Tropicana against the Red Sox, was anything but, allowing 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings. Fact of it is, you have to give the edge to the Phillies as far as starting pitching is concerned in Game 1, an obviously looking at the price on the contest, the oddsmakers agree.
Second, while overall the Rays may have an edge with their starting pitching in the series, there's no question the Phillies offense is more dynamic, and that includes vs left-handed starters. Rays were far less effective against southpaws this season, batting .258 against them at the Trop, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Phillies, on the other hand, while batting only .240 on the road against them (but .292 over their last 10 overall) average a hearty 5.2 runs per game against lefties away this season. Kazmir has been hittable, and that much will become clear after tonight.
Then there's the rest vs rust argument, and while there's many different ways to prove either side right, what's more important is the mind-set of this Rays club. They're coming off a draining 7-game series with the Red Sox, and while not a huge factor, I'll take the rested team versus the one that's lost 2 of their last 3 and is coming into this contest with just 2 days rest.
Finally, its tough to argue against the Phillies bullpen, which is 86-0 this year when leading after 8 innings! They've posted an impressive 1.88 ERA throughout the postseason, led by Brad Lidge (1.23 ERA this postseason). Also, relievers Madson, Durbin, and Romero have been excellent. We know we'll get 7 innings from Hamels tonight, and handing the ball off to the Majors best bullpen is a HUGE advantage for the Phillies.
Bottom line, I repeat, do not over think this Game 1 match up. Hamels is the one true stud of this World Series, and he knows (as well as most) that a win here is the key to the Phillies winning the title. Combine him with this Phillies bullpen and you've got a recipe for disaster as far as the Rays offense is concerned. True, they've been rock-solid of late, but not against lefties (batting .245 vs lefties L10 games). In the end, look for the Phillies to ride their ace to a huge Game 1 victory Wednesday night!
Take the Phillies behind Hamels over the Rays and Kazmir as your top-rated play of the day.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Handicapper: John Ryan
Florida Panthers vs. Ottawa Senators (NHL) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 175 Florida Panthers Play Title: Florida
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Florida ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-31 making 28.6 units since 1996. Play against home favorites against the money line off a home loss and in a game involving two bad teams sporting a winning percentage of 30% to 40%. Florida in a very strong role for this upset win noting they are 8-2 against the money line (+7.5 Units) against good power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on <14.5% of chances over the last 2 seasons. Take Florida.
Handicapper: John Ryan
San Jose Sharks vs. Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -130 San Jose Sharks Play Title: San Jose
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on San Jose ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-6 for 80% making 19.6 units since 1996. Play against home teams against the money line after 5 or more consecutive losses playing with 3 or more days rest. San Jose is a perfect 8-0 against the money line (+8.2 Units) in road games against poor offensive teams that are averaging <=26.5 shots on goal per game over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia is in a very weak role noting that they are 3-12 against the money line (-10.5 Units) in home games facing a good possession teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opposition over the last 3 seasons.
Florida Panthers vs. Ottawa Senators (NHL) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 175 Florida Panthers Play Title: Florida
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Florida ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-31 making 28.6 units since 1996. Play against home favorites against the money line off a home loss and in a game involving two bad teams sporting a winning percentage of 30% to 40%. Florida in a very strong role for this upset win noting they are 8-2 against the money line (+7.5 Units) against good power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on <14.5% of chances over the last 2 seasons. Take Florida.
Handicapper: John Ryan
San Jose Sharks vs. Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -130 San Jose Sharks Play Title: San Jose
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on San Jose ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-6 for 80% making 19.6 units since 1996. Play against home teams against the money line after 5 or more consecutive losses playing with 3 or more days rest. San Jose is a perfect 8-0 against the money line (+8.2 Units) in road games against poor offensive teams that are averaging <=26.5 shots on goal per game over the last 2 seasons. Philadelphia is in a very weak role noting that they are 3-12 against the money line (-10.5 Units) in home games facing a good possession teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opposition over the last 3 seasons.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
Handicapper: John Ryan
Detroit Red Wings vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:35 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 135 St. Louis Blues Play Title: St. Louis
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on St. Louis (NHL) ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-35 making 27.7 units since 2002. Play on any team against the money line off a home win against a division rival facing an opponent after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals. St. Louis is also in a strong dog role noting they are 29-29 against the money line (+15.6 Units) against good passing teams averaging 5 or more assists per game over the last 3 seasons
